Last night’s showdown slate went very well for us if you were able to follow the lineup.
Fading Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl was a risk that I was not willing to take last night, and that decision paid off in droves. McDavid and Draisaitl both posted a goal and two assists while the duo also combined for five shots on goal as well. Once again they connected on an overtime goal to give the Oilers a 4-3 win.
We also extracted some value out of a trio of Sharks. Marcus Sorensen scored his fourth goal of the season while Joe Thornton and Kevin Labanc notched both assists on the tally. The trio also combined for seven shots on goal and a block.
Lastly, Timo Meier was held off the scoresheet, but did manage two shots and three blocks on the night.
Overall a very productive night, one that snapped a long stretch of poor lineups.
Let’s keep the ball rolling tonight’s huge 14-game pre-Thanksgiving slate!
*Tonight’s lineup is aimed at GPPs*
C – Jack Eichel (BUF) – $7,400 vs. PHI
Now Eichel may not seem like a GPP play given his high floor and nice matchup tonight, but as we move along here you will see that this is indeed a GPP lineup as we are fading some high-powered players on this slate. We still need a solid foundation to build off regardless of what format we are using and I am loving Eichel’s matchup tonight against the Flyers on home ice. Sure, the Flyers have been better defensively on the road this season than at home, but they are still allowing 3.33 goals per game away from home, good for 21st in the league. For his part, Eichel is having a quality season despite scoring just five goals. He still has 19 assists and 24 points in 21 games to go along with a whopping 86 shots on goal. The goals are definitely going to start coming in bunches for the Boston University product as Eichel is sporting a tiny 5.8% shooting percentage which is miles under bhis 9.5% career mark. He scored the overtime winner in his most recent game against the Penguins which snapped an eight-game goalless drought. Let’s hope that starts a goal-scoring tear for the young pivot as he’s also notched five points over his last three games.
C – Dylan Larkin (DET) – $5,900 vs. BOS
The Bruins managed to allow just two goals over two weekend games despite a plethora of injuries to their blueline, but now Boston is also without top center Patrice Bergeron, who also happens to be one of the very best defensive centers in all of hockey. This Bruins teams is getting awfully thin with injuries, and I think Detroit’s top two offensive players can take advantage of that tonight beginning here with Larkin. He’s enjoying a real nice season despite Detroit mostly struggling on offense as he’s tallied eight goals and 11 helpers for 19 points in 20 games on the season. He’s also fired 59 shots on goal, or just shy of three per game. He’s been very consistent this season and has notched two goals and seven points in eight November games so far. Larkin has also fired nine shots on goal over his last two games. Detroit scores a decent 2.90 goals per game at home, but a good chunk of that damage comes from Larkin’s line so let’s lock in the reasonably priced center tonight in a sneaky-good matchup.
W – Anthony Mantha (DET) – $4,300 vs. BOS
I think there’s plenty of bang for our buck tonight with Mantha as he lines up next to Larkin on the Wings’ top line and top power play unit. He’s the purest goal-scorer the Red Wings have to offer despite having only six goals and nine points in 20 games this season. He did score 24 goals last season, so we know the upside is there at just 24 years of age. I also like the fact that he has three goals and an assist over his last four games after going four straight games without a point. He’s seen an overall dip in ice time this season, however Mantha has logged at least 19:41 in each of his last two games and the Red Wings will certainly lean on their former first-rounder for some increased production as the season moves forward. For tonight, I will look for him to stay hot alongside Larkin in this mini-stack.
W – Taylor Hall (NJ) – $7,500 vs. MON
Hall is another player with a high floor that is usually used in cash games, but we have enough low-owned players on a huge 14-game slate in this lineup that we can certainly use his floor to our advantage this evening against the visiting Canadiens. We need to note that the Devils are much better team at home where they are 6-1-2 as opposed to 2-8-0 on the road. Second, the Devils score 3.56 goals per game at home, good for sixth league-wide. Hall’s home/away splits certainly echo that of his team as he has scored four goals and 14 points in nine home games compared to just one goal and five points in 10 road contests. The Canadiens have been one of the league’s worst defenses this season with their 3.33 goals against per game tying the Panthers for 27th league-wide, albeit that number drops to three goals against per game on the road. Still, Carey Price is struggling again this season and I want Hall’s high floor tonight in this favorable matchup.
W – Kyle Palmieri (NJ) – $7,000 vs. MON
I love the fact that Palmieri and Hall skate together at both even strength and on the top power play unit. Palmieri was one of the league’s hottest scorers to begin the season with nine goals over his first nine games, although he has just two goals in 10 November contests. Still, this guy is a goal-scorer and a weapon on the Devils’ top power play unit where he’s potted five of his 11 goals on the season and notched nine of his 20 points in 19 games. Like Hall, Palmieri’s production is much better at home as he’s scored eight goals and notched 14 points in nine home games compared to three goals and six points in 10 road games. He and Hall are one of the top duos on the slate tonight in my opinion and I expect production out of this duo as part of a three-man stack tonight.
D – Will Butcher (NJ) – $3,800 vs. MON
Completing that three-man Devils stack is Butcher who comes at a reasonable cost given his low floor. Butcher doesn’t shoot the puck much with just 28 shots in 19 games, and he has just one goal after scoring only five last season. That said, Butcher is a wiz on the power play where he will form a stack with Hall and Palmieri. For instance, all six of his assists this season have come on the power play. He notched 23 of his 44 points last season on the man advantage. He’s seeing an increase of almost two minutes per game in average ice time over last season, and he’s also seeing a huge 4:15 second of power play time per game as the Devils lean heavily on that top unit. He therefore skates with Hall and Palmieri quite a bit every game, so I will look to get some value out of the cheap blueliner in a favorable matchup tonight.
D – Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) – $4,200 vs. PHI
The Sabres stack continues here with Dahlin as he takes on the Flyers tonight at home. Dahlin has been moved to the Sabres’ top power play unit, which is why I want him in this lineup alongside Eichel as well as our utility player in this lineup to complete a three-man stack. This summer’s first overall pick, Dahlin has tallied a very solid two goals and 10 points in 21 games, a nice feat for an 18-year-old defenseman. Dahlin has also tallied a goal and two assists over his last three games and has a goal and five assists over his last eight. Again, his spot on the top power play unit with Eichel is crucial as the Sabres rank 11th with a 22.2% clip on the man advantage at home, but are also up against the league’s 29th-ranked road penalty kill tonight against the Flyers. I really believe that he provides excellent value against one of the league’s worst defenses and worst penalty kills.
G – Curtis McElhinney (CAR) – $7,000 vs. TOR
Here is a big GPP play as McElhinney is set to take on the team that released him just after training camp earlier this season. There’s no doubt that the Leafs are lethal, especially on the road where they have gone 9-1-0 and averaged 4.50 goals per game. At the same time, those goals per game are simply unsustainable and that number will trend down as the season moves along. We also need to keep in mind that McElhinney has gone 2-1-0 with a 2.37 GAA and .914 Sv% on home ice this season. The final thing to note is that this matchup is essentially a pick’em tonight, meaning the oddsmakers believer this is a fairly even matchup tonight. At $7,000, I’ll take that. His last start was a 2-1 win over the Devils where he stopped 33 of 34 shots, so I’m looking for more of the same in a player that does carry risk, but also presents alue upside at an extremely attractive price tonight.
UTIL – Evan Rodrigues (BUF) – $2,600 vs. PHI
Rodrigues has been healthy scratched at times this season, and he has yet to score in 15 games, albeit he does have six assists. That said, let’s keep in mind this is a player that tallied a rock-solid 25 points in 48 games last season, better than half a point per game. What I like most about Rodrigues is the fact he is projected to skate on the Sabres’ top power play unit alongside Eichel and Dahlin. This presents us with a lower-owned stack than if we were to roster someone like Jeff Skinner with Eichel. I believe Rodrigues is a sneaky GPP pivot. Rodrigues has seen some increased ice time this month, skating at least 15:52 in four of five November games and more than 16:11 in three of five games, much higher than his season average of only 14:41. At a near-minimum price and skating on a power play unit with a ton of upside tonight, I think Rodrigues is an excellent GPP look at a terribly low price.