Once again we had some nice picks with last night’s DraftKings NHL DFS Picks, however we also had too many duds that made it very difficult to get into profit territory.
Our Capitals mini-stack of Kuznetsov and Ovechkin performed, mostly on the back of Ovechkin’s two-goal night on six shots while Kuznetsov took five shots and picked up an assist on Matt Niskanen’s overtime winner.
Our three-man Ducks stack did well, however as mentioned in yesterday’s piece Jakob Silfverberg was questionable for the game and it turns out he has a broken finger. He didn’t play, but Adam Henrique scored a goal while Cam Fowler notched an assist.
Our Flames mini-stack was 50% productive as Noah Hanifin recorded an assist, two shots and two blocks to provide us with some nice value. That said, Austin Czarnik was held to just two shots and a block. We hit the nail on the head thinking Calgary could provide some offense despite facing a solid defensive team in the Bruins, but unfortunately we could only extract one point on the Flames’ five goals on the night.
Our goaltender was excellent as John Gibson turned aside 34 of the Islanders’ 35 shots as Gibson notched the win in the 4-1 victory.
Let’s look for some more consistency on tonight’s solid nine-game slate.
C – Brayden Point (TB) -$6,600 vs. DET
The Lighting have done some line juggling that has resulted in 12 goals scored over their last two games, so I am going to roll out a high-ceiling three-man Lightning stack tonight as they take on the slumping Red Wings on home ice. Point is going to center the Lightning top line tonight, and interestingly he will be centering Steven Stamkos who used to reside as the top center. Point has tallied three goals and an assist on the heels of a season in which he broke out with 32 goals and 66 points on 217 shots while skating in all 82 regular season contests. Point looks like he will slide down to the second power play unit as the Lightning look to balance those groups, and I believe that gives us a leg up in terms of cost-efficiency tonight against the worst defense so far in the NHL this season.
C – Logan Couture (SJ) – $5,800 vs. BUF
While Joe Pavelski is regarded as the top center on the Sharks, Logan Couture led the team in goals by a country mile last season and should be a perennial 30-goal scorer in this league. He’s off to a decent but unspectacular start with a goal and two helpers through six games, but the guy is logging north of 20 minutes per game while skating on the Sharks’ top power play unit. Couture has taken only 14 shots in those six games, but he’s shooting at just 7.1% so far, well under his 12.5% career average, so the goals are going to come. The Sabres have been better defensively so far this season, but I’m still liking the mid-range price on Couture tonight.
W – Steven Stamkos (TB) – $6,700 vs. DET
Stamkos and Point should see some ownership tonight, but their matchup is a good one against the scuffling Red Wings. Detroit has allowed a whopping 4.83 goals per game in the early season, and considering the injury woes and rookie replacements on the back end, it’s not hard to see why. Getting an .855 Sv% from their goaltenders hasn’t helped the cause, either. It’s been a bit of a slow start for the former 60-goal man as Stamkos has just one assist to speak of across four games on the season with just eight shots on goal. He’s still seeing top-line minutes and top power play unit minutes as well, and as he highest scoring team from last season, the Lightning should certainly do some damage tonight at home against Detroit.
W – Tomas Hertl (SJ) – $5,700 vs. BUF
Hertl and Couture will form an even strength stack for the Sharks, but Hertl gives us some exposure to the Sharks’ second power play unit so we will have both units covered tonight against the Sabres. He’s off to a solid start with two goals and an assist in six games with 17 shots to boot. Hertl appeared to be coming into his own during the postseason last year when he scored six goals and nine points in 10 playoff games and I think he’s set for a career-year this time around alongside Couture. The Sabres have had nice results defensively so far, but they’re getting outshot by an average of 7.2 shots per game and rank 23rd in Corsi For% on the season. They’re due for some regression and I want to be there when it happens.
W – Mathieu Perreault (WPG) – $3,200 vs. VAN
We are going to get a pair of Jets in this lineup and we will get them at a low cost and very low ownership as Winnipeg takes on the visiting Canucks tonight. Vancouver has had a successful road trip so far while holding the Lighting, Panthers and Penguins to a combined five goals in three games. That said, this is also a team that allowed 14 goals over their first three games. They are also being outshot by an average of 6.8 shots per game and rank 30th with a 41.1% Corsi For%. This mini-stack is going to skate together at 5v5 and on the Jets’ second power play unit. For his part, Perreault has only one assist on the season, but at this price and at minuscule ownership, I think this can be a sneaky-good stack in favorable matchup.
D – Brent Burns (SJ) – $6,300 vs. BUF
We’re certainly getting Burns at cheaper prices these days as compared to the past when he was often over the $8,000 mark. He’s coming off a down season in which he scored just 12 goals, which helps explain the price drop, but Burns is a shot-on-goal machine as he’s posted at least 320 shots in each of the last three years. He’s skating just shy of 25 minutes per game on that Sharks blueline while he has notched four points, albeit zero goals, in six games. He will form a three-man stack with his teammates above at 5v5 while he while skate with Couture on that top power play unit.
D – Mikhail Sergachev (TB) – $4,400 vs. DET
I mentioned earlier that the fact Point is sliding down to the second power play unit gives us a leg up in terms of cost efficiency, and it’s because he still skate with Sergachev on that group. I see this as an opportunity to pay down from Victor Hedman to get Sergachev who may not have as high of a floor, but he’s productive nonetheless. Sergachev notched nine goals and 40 points in his rookie season last year, which is quite incredible as he logged just 15:22 per game, a tiny amount for a defenseman. It’s on the power play where he’s doing his damage as 16 of those 40 points came on the man advantage a year ago while both of his assists this year have come on the power play. I think he and point can provide us with a nice mini-stack on that second unit.
G – Martin Jones (SJ) – $8,000 vs. BUF
Buffalo has been solid on defense, but goal scoring is once again an issue for a team that was expected to improve in this department. Buffalo is tied for 28th with just two goals per game on the young season and their power play is just 4 for 24 (16.7%). The Sharks haven’t seen the best results so far, but they are the second-best possession team in the league at 60.6% and are huge -217 favorites tonight, so Jones’ win and shutout upside is immense. Sure, he sports a 3.05 GAA and an .880 Sv% so far, but there’s little doubt in my mind the Sharks will wind up as one of the best defensive teams in the year when it’s all said and done, and Jones is going to rack up plenty of wins this season. Regardless, his matchup tonight is an extremely favorable one at home against a struggling offense.
UTIL – Jack Roslovic (WPG) – $3,000 vs. VAN
Roslovic completes the aforementioned mini-stack alongside Perreault at what will be tiny ownership tonight against the Canucks. He’s tallied just one assist in six games, but Roslovic notched 14 points in 31 games last season in the NHL after tallying 35 points in 32 AHL games. Clearly, the former first-round pick can score, and tonight is a good opportunity to do so against a weak Canucks defense. The American-born pivot isn’t seeing a ton of ice time right now, but if the Jets’ second power play unit can get on the ice a few times tonight I don’t mind the upside here at all. A productive night from this duo would give this lineup a massive shot in the arm.