We had some real solid plays in last night’s GPP-aimed DraftKings NHL DFS Picks, and hopefully you were able to use some of these plays to get into the money!
Our Penguins mini-stack of Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel combined for three assists, which is a little disappointing considering the Penguins put six goals up on the Oilers.
Our three-man Rangers low-owned stack did a little bit of damage, albeit in lucky fashion. It was a nice call predicting the Rangers would put up some offense against the Panthers, however it took an empty netter from Kevin Hayes with Brady Skjei notching an assist for our production here. Certainly the Mika Zibanejad line was the one to own in this one.
Our three-man Canadiens stack also did some damage. Brendan Gallagher and Jeff Petry both scored goals while Petry added an assist. The stack also combined for a productive 13 shots on goal.
Unfortunately, our goaltender Antti Raanta didn’t get the nod as backup Darcy Kuemper got the call and stymied the Blue Jackets. If you simply used Kuemper over Raanta, you got excellent value here.
Let’s move on and tackle tonight’s four-game Wednesday slate!
C – Mark Scheifele (WPG) – $6,700 vs. TOR
Scheifele is coming off a huge game against the Blues where he posted two goals and two assists to give him nine points in as many games on the young season. Scheifele will also get a boos to his top line tonight as Patrik Laine has switched spots with Kyle Connor and the duo will therefore form a mini-stack at 5v5 and on the top power play unit. The Maple Leafs are tied for 20th in team defense this season, so there is certainly opportunity for the big boys to do damage tonight. I like the fact that the former Barrie Colt is logging an absolute ton of ice time with 22:18 of average ice time per game. The cost here is more than reasonable so let’s look for this duo to hit their high ceiling tonight on home ice.
C – Erik Haula (VGK) – $4,800 vs. VAN
After a slow start, the Golden Knights are hitting their stride a little bit with two straight wins while scoring seven goals in that span, so I am going to look for last year’s Western Conference champs to stay hot against the visiting Canucks tonight. Vancouver is averaging 3.22 goals per game this year, but they’re also being dominated in the possession game with a 42.2% Corsi For% at even strength (30th) while the Golden Knights are dominating the possession game with a 58.9% mark (3rd). Haula enjoyed a career year last year with 29 goals and 55 points, although he’s off to a slow start this season with just one goal in eight games. That said, he’s still centering the team’s second line and second power play unit and I think he can provide some nice value to this lineup against a weak Canucks back end. He kicks off a low-cost three-man stack tonight.
W – Patrik Laine (WPG) – $6,500 vs. TOR
As mentioned, Laine and Scheifele form a very high-ceiling stack tonight against the Maple Leafs, a team that Laine has enjoyed plenty of success against in his brief history against the club. Laine has scored five times and has six points in four career games against the Maple Leafs with three of those goals coming in the same game back in his rookie season. Laine has scuffled a little but out of the gate by his standards with three goals in nine games and has therefore been thrown onto the top line with Scheifele and Blake Wheeler with the hope he can kick start one of those deadly scoring streaks he’s already notorious for in his short time in this league. He bagged 44 goals last season and is going to give that mark a run for its money again this year, and let’s hope he gets a goal or two closer to that total in tonight’s contest against the Maple Leafs.
W – Max Pacioretty (VGK) – $4,600 vs. VAN
We are getting Pacioretty at a tiny price as he too has just one goal for his only point in eight games this season, but it’s only a matter of time before the five-time 30-goal man gets going with his new club. Pacioretty is still shooting the puck lots with 23 shots in eight games, just shy of three shots per game. The difference is he has scored on just 4.3% of those shots, miles under his 11% career shooting percentage. That number is going to being to normalize at some point, and I want to be there when it happens. Pacioretty skates on the second line alongside Haula at 5v5, however he has a spot on the top power play unit, giving us exposure to both groups against the Canucks tonight. Simply put, I love the value upside at this price in a super-favorable matchup.
W – Mitch Marner (TOR) – $6,400 vs. WPG
The Maple Leafs have finally been cooled off after a blistering start to the season as they’ve managed just one goal over their last two games, however I’m of the opinion that you can’t keep this dynamic offense quiet for long. In fact, those two futile outings will only lower ownership for the Maple Leafs tonight in Winnipeg. Marner is having a big season so far with four goals and 12 points on the season across nine games while he is the anchor of that top power play unit, a group that ranks second with a 37.5% clip on the season. He’s not a huge shot-taker, but Marner skates alongside superstar John Tavares at even strength and on that top power play unit. Given his spot in the lineup and his brilliance on the man advantage, I’m going to lock in Marner as the first leg of a mini-stack tonight in Winnipeg.
D – Morgan Rielly (TOR) – $6,200 vs. WPG
Rielly costs a pretty penny tonight, however he and Marner give us plenty of upside as a mini-stack at both even strength and on the aforementioned top power play unit. Rielly set some early records for points by a defenseman this season as he’s already notched four goals and 14 points in nine games on the young season. He’s firing plenty of pucks on goal with 27 shots in nine games, or three per game. He likely won’t continue to score goals at this rate given his huge 14.4% shooting percentage, however look for Rielly to be among the leaders in assists by a blueliner this year given his spot on the top power play unit alongside the Maple Leafs’ superstar talent. He and Marner form a high-ceiling mini-stack tonight against the Jets.
D – Shea Theodore (VGK) – $3,200 vs. VAN
Theodore notched a solid 29 points in 61 games last season before added another three goals and 10 points in 20 playoff games, however he’s only recorded one assist in eight games this season. The Knights haven’t scored much until the last two games so it’s not surprising to see our stack with low point totals entering this one. I like the value upside Theodore contains at this price as he’s getting second unit power play reps alongside Haula while logging more than 21 minutes on that Vegas blueline. Theodore doesn’t mind shooting the puck with 21 shots across eight games on the season after taking 144 shots in just 61 games a year ago. The young defenseman completes our value mini-stack in what I believe to be a fantastic matchup tonight.
G – Robin Lehner (NYI) – $7,300 vs. FLA
This one is a bit risky as Marc-Andre Fleury is the safest goaltender on this slate, but you can call this a GPP lineup if you wish thanks to the addition of Lehner. Lehner takes on the Panthers tonight on home ice where he pitched a shutout in his only start of the season. He enters tonight’s contest sporting a rock-solid 2.59 GAA and a .925 Sv% in four starts on the campaign, his first with the Islanders. The Islanders are also slight -119 favorites in this one too, so the win upside is increased a little bit with his team favored to get the W. The Panthers have won just one game this year and rank 17th in league offense, so they aren’t firing on all cylinders. They are also playing their second game in as many nights after losing last night to the Rangers. All told, I think Lehner can give us some value at a small cost this evening.
UTIL – Brock Nelson (NYI) – $4,300 vs. FLA
Nelson shouldn’t see a whole lot of ownership tonight but I am loving his matchup against the Panthers. Florida has been brutal on the back end this season as they rank 29th with four goals against per game after giving up five last night in Manhattan, albeit with one going into an empty bet. Still, the Panthers’ .861 Sv% they have received from their goaltending so far is the worst mark in the NHL. Nelson is getting a nice spot in the lineup these days with John Tavares no longer with the team as he is skating in between Anders Lee and Josh Bailey, the exact spot Tavares was in last season. He has two goals and an assist in seven games while he’s skating just shy of 19 minutes per game, ice time that includes second unit power play minutes. Given his linemates and his matchup, there’s certainly some value to be extracted from Nelson tonight.