Last night’s FanDuel NHL DFS Picks were excellent as we hit on both of our main stacks and our goaltender despite our one-off not giving us any value.
Indeed, I wanted to see what a four-man Predators stack would do for us, and it’s a good thing as Nashville scored five goals on the night in a 6-5 shootout win.
The stack was led by Filip Forsberg who potted two goals on four shots while Roman Josi tallied a pair of assists, four shots and a blocked shot. Kyle Turris put forth excellent value with two assists and two shots on goal while Viktor Arvidsson tallied an assist, two shots and a block.
I probably would have wanted more from Arvidsson, but it was a good idea to get those four into the lineup and it paid off.
I also rolled out a three-man Canadiens stack and got real nice results there, as well.
Brendan Gallagher had a productive return to the lineup as he notched a goal – the game winner – on five shots. Phillip Danault notched an assist, two shots and a block while Jeff Petry didn’t do a whole lot with two shots and a block. We came a Petry point away from excellent results there.
Unfortunately, my value pick of Michael Grabner disappointed – as did the Coyotes offense as I’m glad I decided against a stack there – as he posted a zero with the Coyotes scoring just twice.
We chose the right goaltender on this night as well, at least from a safety standpoint. Price turned aside 20 of 21 shots and earned the 3-1 win in Buffalo. Not a terribly high score, but I had them in there fore safety and that’s what he delivered.
It was a real nice night and we get to dive into a bigger slate tonight with a week-high seven-game slate on tap tonight!
FanDuel NHL DFS Picks & Breakdowns
C – Sidney Crosby (PIT) – $8,400 vs. PHI
The Penguins and Flyers renew hostilities tonight in Pittsburgh after the Flyers dealt their rivals a 3-0 shutout loss in Philadelphia in their final game before the break. That said, this Flyers team is a completely different team on the road than they’ve been at home this season and the difference on defense is astonishing. The Flyers rank first in the NHL with 2.00 goals against per game at home on the season, but plummet all the way to 30th with 3.80 goals against per game on the road. That’s a 1.80 goal-per-game difference we’re talking about. Their penalty kill also goes from a third-ranked 86.8% at home all the way to 24th with a 77.6% mark on the road. Shocking numbers to say the least.
As a result, it could be a big night for the Penguins as they look for revenge. The Pens rank ninth with 3.42 goals per game at home this season where their power play has been mediocre with a 18th-ranked 19.3% mark on the season. That power play has scored two goals in a game in three of its last six, so it has turned a corner since Crosby returned to the lineup.
For his part, Crosby will enter this one with eight goals and 25 points in 22 games on the season to go along with 58 shots on goal. Prior to being shut out by the Flyers, Crosby scored three goals and eight points in a four-game stretch since returning from the break. He’s also tallied 17 points in 12 games at home this season, so let’s look for him damage from 87 tonight.
C – Mika Zibanejad (NYR) – $7,800 vs. DET
The Rangers are surely going to see some ownership tonight and this lineup is probably best suited for cash and head-to-head matchups as a result. Nonetheless, we have a big opportunity here with Zibanejad and the Rangers as they take on the visiting Detroit Red Wings.
The Wings have had an extremely difficult season and enter this one sporting what is by far the NHL’s worst road defense where they’ve allowed 4.24 goals per game on the season, much worse than the aforementioned 30th-ranked Flyers and their 3.80 mark. Detroit’s penalty kill also comes in at 29th with a 71.1% mark on the penalty kill on the road as well, so there’s opportunity at both 5v5 and on the man advantage tonight, so I wanted to ensure I get a three-man power play stack in here as well considering the Rangers are tied for sixth with 3.48 goals per game at home this season and ninth with a 23.9% mark on the power play at home.
Enter Zibanejad who is having a big season with the Rangers despite missing time with injury again. The 26-year-old Swede has tallied 18 goals and 39 points in just 35 games to go along with 121 shots on goal. He has seven goals and 14 points on the power play and 21 points in 18 home games, so let’s look for him to anchor this stack tonight.
W – Patric Hornqvist (PIT) – $5,600 vs. PHI
It’s the age-old question every time you want to stack the Penguins. Do you go with Crosby or Malkin? Sometimes the power play personnel helps make the decision easier, but tonight you can get Crosby and Hornqvist together or Malkin and Rust together as those duos skate together at both 5v5 and on the top power play unit. I went through the game logs and splits and all that, and couldn’t really determine who I wanted more, but I mostly default to Sid who is the leader of this team and I believe he’ll lead the way in a revenge matchup tonight.
That gives us Hornqvist who isn’t having a great season compared to Rust who is just $200 more, but I like the upside regardless. The veteran has tallied 11 goals and 19 points in 33 games which is still a quality season and he pucks plenty of pucks on goal with 93 shots in that time with a decent 25 blocked shots to boot. I do like that he’s notably more productive at home where he’s tallied six goals and 12 points in 18 games (0.67 points per game) with 58 shots in that time (3.2 per game) compared to five goals and seven points in 15 road games (0.47 points per game) with 35 shots in that time (2.3 per game). That right there is a nice start and he has three goals and three assists over his last five at home.
I believe skating with Crosby in all situations tonight is going to get Hornqvist on the scoresheet multiple times in this one.
W – Chris Kreider (NYR) – $6,400 vs. DET
I mentioned I wanted to get a 5v5 and top power play unit stack into this lineup and that’s what Kreider helps us accomplish as he will skate alongside Zibanejad on the Rangers’ top line and top power play unit for this one tonight.
Perhaps the most coveted player at this year’s trade deadline, Kreider has been producing at a high level of late. He has 17 goals and 32 points in 48 games on the season, but he’s also scored five goals over his last seven games and has nine points over his last eight games. He’s also been putting plenty of pucks on goal with 16 shots over his last four games, good for an even four shots per game during that time.
Like others in this lineup, the home splits work out quite well for us here. Kreider has 13 goals and 20 points in 25 home games compared to just four goals and 12 points in 23 road games while his 72 home shots on the season tower over his 45 road shots on the campaign. He’s also scored six of his seven power play goals at home and has, for some reason, skating about a minute and a half more per game at home than on the road.
There’s a lot to like about the power forward on top of the attractive matchup tonight.
W – Ondrej Kase (ANH) – $3,400 vs. TB
While it’s a cash lineup overall, I do have a couple of low-cost one-odds that could be considered GPP plays in this lineup, so perhaps you could get it into a single-entry GPP and look for a takedown with a big score, although I still suggest it mostly for cash games.
Nonetheless, I like the value potential we get here with Kase who I expected to come at a higher price than this. There’s one wrinkle here, however. The Lightning play their first of back-to-back games in this one here, and I like Kase a whole lot more if backup goaltender Curtis McElhinney gets the start and starter Andre Vasilevskiy is red-hot at the moment. That said, if Vasilevskiy starts, I still don’t mind him as a cost-efficient one-off who will come very low owned.
On a low-scoring Ducks offense, Kase’s 20 points in 44 games isn’t terrible, but there’s one area where he could excel moving forward and that’s in the goal-scoring department. Kase has just six goals despite taking a real healthy 116 shots on the season, good for a tiny 5.2% shooting percentage that is well under his 9.7% career mark. It’s almost certain that his shooing percentage is going to rise from here on out and perhaps substantially after shooting at least 11.7% in each of the last two seasons.
He does have a goal and an assist over his last two games and three goals and six points over his last eight games, so perhaps we’re getting Kase with a boatload of confidence entering this matchup tonight.
W – Tyler Bozak (STL) – $4,000 vs. EDM
The St. Louis Blues look to expand their lead in the west tonight as they take on the Oilers in Edmonton.
The Oilers have some reverse home/road splits this season and have been solid defensively on the road but have struggled mightily on the back end at home where they have somehow managed to tie the Red Wings for the worst home defense in the league right now where they’ve allowed 3.54 goals per game on the season while their home penalty kill is tied for 28th with a 74.6% mark.
For their part, the Blues have been quite good offensively on the road. They enter this one tied for 12th with 3.08 goals per game on the road this season, but also rank first in the NHL with a 28.4% mark on the power play on the road as well.
Bozak is set to skate on the third line, but also on the second power play unit. He has 11 goals and 24 points in 50 games but has been more productive on the road where he’s tallied 13 points in 26 games. He was all over it in firing five shots on goal in more than 19 minutes of ice time in the Blues last game in Calgary, so look for Bozak to be involved again in this one tonight.
D – Kris Letang (PIT) – $6,800 vs. PHI
Completing my three-man Penguins stack here is Letang who will, of course, skate with Crosby and Hornqvist on the top power play unit and also gets notable minutes at 5v5 with this group as well considering he ranks fourth with 25:43 of average ice time per game.
He’s also one of the top cross-category defenders in the NHL, or at least among the top five. Letang enters this one with 10 goals and 31 points in 42 games on the season and has also fired 126 shots on goal and blocked another 64 shots to boot. He’s tallied three goals and 10 points on the power play as well.
His splits are actually almost dead-even between home and the road, but one thing I do like about Letang is that he’s on a cold streak in terms of goal-scoring. Yes, you read that right. Letang’s shooting rate was absurdly high before the cold stretch, and he’s now gone 12 games and 29 shots on goal without scoring. His shooting rate needed to come back down to earth, and it has as his current 7.9% mark is at least a lot closer to his career 5.9% figure. As a result, I think he’s due to find the back of the net on an imminent basis, and considering just how bad this Flyers defense is on the road and on the penalty kill, there’s a real chance it goes down tonight.
D – Tony DeAngelo (NYR) – $4,900 vs. DET
Completing our three-man Rangers stack is DeAngelo who is having a massive season for the blueshirts and become one of the better offensive defensemen in the game here this season.
DeAngelo enters this one with 12 goals and 37 points in 48 games on the season to go along with 104 shots on goal and another 35 blocks as well. They cross-category production isn’t at Letang’s level, but to be honest it’s not too far off and the price tag is a whole lot cheaper, so I believe DeAngelo brings some serious value to the table considering the matchup.
Now, one thing to consider, as I did with Letang, is that DeAngelo is shooting at a big-time 11.5% clip, well above his 6.1% career mark and also miles above a normal NHL defenseman rate. Nonetheless, a matchup against these horrid Red Wings on home ice isn’t exactly a matchup that presents a huge threat to shut him down. Besides, he’s skating with a couple of talented offensive players on that Rangers top power play unit where he has three goals and 12 points on the season, so look for DeAngelo to get back onto the scoresheet, potentially in a big way tonight.
G – Igor Shesterkin (NYR) – $7,700 vs. DET
Completing this lineup tonight will be the youngster Shesterkin who will likely see a good chunk of ownership as well, but once again I am going with the safety aspect here as I believe the Rangers get the win tonight considering their big -220 moneyline odds to do so.
Nonetheless, Shesterkin does have the potential to rack up plenty of points tonight. The Red Wings don’t shoot the puck a ton, but that could be balanced out by the fact that the Rangers are tied for 29th with 33.9 shots against per game at home on the season, so he could still face some rubber in this one.
He’s only played three NHL games, however Shesterkin has been excellent in posting a nice 2.68 GAA but also a fantastic .929 Sv%. The excellent save percentage combined with a little bit of a higher GAA (relative to the save percentage) is a result of the Rangers allowing a ton of shots on goal. Still, he’s 2-1-0 on the season and all three starts have come on home ice.
The Red wings enter this one ranked last by a mile with 2.08 goals per game on the road this season and also last by a mile with a 9.9% mark on the power play on the road, so the matchup is the best on the slate. I hope Detroit can get more than 30 shots on goal in this one as it provides the opportunity for plenty of saves, but all told I want the safety aspect for a cash-oriented lineup and we’re getting it at more than a reasonable price tonight.