I made a pair of free NHL picks last night and it was an extremely productive night with a 2-0 finish.
The first winner came between the Canadiens and Bruins where I had the under 5.5 at +102 odds from Boston.
The pick looked good early as the Bruins carried a 1-0 lead into the first intermission, however the teams exchanged goals within a minute of each other early in the second while David Pastrnak added another – his third of the game – before 40 minutes out and it was 3-1 Bruins heading to the third.
However, it was a scoreless third period all the way until Patrice Bergeron’s empty-netter with less than a minute to and the Bruins’ 4-1 win kept the total under 5.5.
Later on I had the Canucks as -144 favorites on the moneyline to knock off the visiting Blackhawks, but it was more difficult than the final score indicated.
The Canucks won the game 3-0, but the Blackhawks outshot them by a whopping 49-20 count, something I didn’t expect for a team playing their second game in as many nights. Jacob Markstrom was the hero with the 49-save shutout and thanks to him we ended with a 2-0 night.
All told, we notched 2.02 units in profit on the evening as we make our way to tonight’s big 11-game schedule!
Season Record: 95-81-1
Now let’s check in on this free NHL pick featuring the Flyers vs. Panthers from the BB&T Center in Sunrise!
Flyers vs. Panthers Betting Odds
- Flyers (+110)
- Panthers (-121)
- Flyers +1.5 (-220)
- Panthers -1.5 (+190)
- Over 6.5 (-105)
- Under 6.5 (-105)
Flyers vs. Panthers NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these teams before I get into my final pick!
After consecutive wins including a 4-1 home win over these Panthers, the Flyers dropped a 5-3 road decision to the Islanders their last time out.
While one of their two consecutive wins was a blowout 7-2 victory over the Metro-leading Capitals, this has not been a good road team this season, whatsoever.
They’re among the NHL’s best at home where they’ve gone 19-6-5 on the season, but the Flyers are just 12-14-3 on the road and it’s a little bit of a surprise they’ve even managed that record considering their numbers on the road.
At 2.11 goals against per game at home, the Flyers are the NHL’s second-ranked home defense, but that number jumps all the way to 3.66 on the road, good for 28th in the league.
Allowing more than 1.50 goals per game on the road than what you allow at home is a split that is a big head-scratcher for this team.
They penalty kill also regresses on the road to 23rd with a 76.5% mark while they sit comfortably in the top 10 on home ice in that department.
Things aren’t as extreme at the offensive end, but there’s no denying the Flyers are far less potent on the road.
Entering this one tonight, the Flyers have averaged 2.79 goals per game on the road which puts them 19th in the league while their 16.9% mark on the power play away from home checks in at 20th.
At the possession numbers paint a prettier picture.
The Flyers rank sixth with a 51% Corsi For% at 5v5 on the road this season, ninth with a 50.21% Scoring Chances For% and 16th with a 47.49% High-Danger Chances For%.
They also haven’t received much at all in terms of goaltending on the road with an NHL-worst .885 Sv% at 5v5 away from home, and the main culprit of that mark is Carter Hart who gets the starting nod in this one tonight.
Hart’s splits are actually some of the most ridiculous ones I have seen in all of my NHL research this season.
Hart enter this one sporting a 1.65 GAA and .941 Sv% in 18 home starts where he’s gone a pristine 14-2-2 on the season.
However, things absolutely plummet on the road to the tune of a 4.01 GAA and .850 Sv% in 12 starts and 15 appearances with a 2-9-1 record to show for it.
After missing almost a month, Hart returned to action to make 30 saves on 31 Panthers’ shots in the Flyers win over Florida on Monday, but of course that one came at home.
Over his last three starts on the road, Hart has gone 0-3-0 with an .811 Sv%.
The Panthers recently went on a four-game losing streak that dropped them out of the playoff picture in the east, but they managed to get back on track with a 5-3 win in New Jersey their last time out.
Not only was the win a relief, their high-powered offense got its mojo back after they managed to score just five goals over their previous four games combined.
Now, they’ll meet up with a Flyers team that sits just three points ahead of them in the standings and one that occupies the second Wild Card spot in the east.
For good measure, the Panthers rank eighth with a potent 24.7% mark on the power play at home as well.
However, their Achilles’ heel this season as been their play on the back end and their goaltending, regardless of where they’re playing.
The Panthers enter this one as the NHL’s 28th-ranked home offense where they’ve allowed 3.29 goals per game on the season and where their penalty kill sits 24th with a 77.5% mark.
Their goaltending has not helped one bit as Sergei Bobrovsky – tonight’s starter – is enduring a nightmare season in the first year of a lucrative seven-year contract he signed this past summer in free agency.
Bobrovsky enters this one sporting a 3.27 GAA and .898 Sv% on the season across 43 appearances, although he has been better at home with a 3.09 GAA and .907 Sv%. Still, not great either way.
He hasn’t been any better in the month of February to this point with a 3.44 GAA and .899 Sv% in four starts and owns an .857 Sv% over his last three starts, including the loss in Philly on Monday.
It wasn’t hard to like the Flyers on Monday as a dominant home team that was taking on a scuffling Panthers team.
That said, to me, it’s not hard to like the hometown Panthers tonight against an extremely poor Flyers road team while Hart’s struggles away from simply cannot be ignored.
I mean, the Panthers have the offensive advantage, defensive advantage, special teams advantage and despite Bobrovsky’s poor season, even the goaltending advantage.
By no means does that add up to a sure-fire victory, but the line on Florida has actually trended down to the -121 we see it at today from about -130 where it opened yesterday afternoon at BetOnline.
I was a little concerned it would trend up towards -140 or so, but it went the opposite way I expected, and I want to take advantage.
With everything seemingly pointed towards the Panthers way, especially that high-octane offense that snapped a cold drought their last time out – I want the Panthers at an attractive price on the moneyline tonight.