I didn’t get picks out over the weekend but I did drop my final pick of last week after a brief hot stretch.
I had the Penguins to take care of the rival Flyers in regulation time, and it looked like that was going to be the case when the Penguins took a 3-1 lead in the second period.
Unfortunately, the Penguins allowed a goal before the second came to an end and another in the third. The game went to overtime to sewer my pick where the Penguins won on a Sidney Crosby goal.
It was a tough way to end the week after I was heating back up, but let’s get this week started on the right note on tonight’s three-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 86-74-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Flyers vs. Red Wings from Little Caesars Arena in downtown Detroit!
Flyers vs. Red Wings Betting Odds
- Flyers (-199)
- Red Wings (+179)
- Flyers -1.5 (+130)
- Red Wings +1.5 (-150)
- Over 6 (+107)
- Under 6 (-118)
Flyers vs. Red Wings NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these teams before I get into my final pick!
The Flyers bounced back from Friday’s aforementioned loss to take care of the visiting Avalanche at home the following night by a 6-3 score.
The loss on the road and the win at home should be anything but a surprise, however.
The Flyers enter tonight’s contest with a 10-13-3 record on the road which is a far cry from their 18-4-4 mark on home ice.
To be clear, the Flyers’ numbers at home are flat-out elite, however their numbers on the road are flat-out terrible and it’s surprising that they’ve managed to collect points in half of their road games despite that.
Entering this one tonight, the Flyers are ranked 30th with 3.81 goals against per game on the road this season, which is quite unbelievable considering their 2.04 goals against per game at home is the best mark in the NHL.
I mean, allowing 1.77 goals per game more on the road than at home is the widest home/road split I’ve seen in this league in my life.
Furthermore, their penalty kill goes from third at home with a stout 86.1% mark all the way to 25th with a 75.6% clip.
That penalty kill was torched over the weekend, allowing three goals on five power plays against.
Their offensive numbers follow a similar trend, albeit not to the same extent.
At home, the Flyers rank fifth with 3.62 goals per game, however they fall to 19th with a 2.62 mark on the road.
Their power play ranks 12th with a 22.8% mark at home, but falls to 21st with a 16.3% clip on the road.
Their power play has been hot of late, going 2 for 8 over the weekend but also 4 for 13 (30.1%) over their last four games.
With Carter Hart still sidelined at the moment, it’s going to be Brian Elliott getting the nod again after he took the loss on Friday in Pittsburgh and watched Alex Lyon earn a win at home the following night.
Elliott has been solid in Hart’s absence, but only at home.
He’s posted a .981 Sv% with a shutout over his last two starts at home but just an .868 mark over his last two starts on the road after allowing four goals on only 20 shots in Friday’s loss in Pittsburgh.
Going back further, Elliott has been blasted for an .836 Sv% over his last five appearances on the road.
Elliott has struggled to a 3.33 GAA and .891 Sv% over 14 starts and 18 appearances on the road this season, but has somehow gone 8-4-2 in the process.
Elliott has not faced the Red Wings this season.
The Red Wings have endured a terrible season and are once again in the midst of a lengthy losing streak, having lost eight in a row entering this one tonight – seven of which came in regulation.
The Wings were much closer to victory their last time out than they have been throughout the streak as they dropped a tough 1-0 decision to the Rangers on Saturday despite outshooting their opponent.
Of course, when a season is going this bad and you own a -93 goal differential in just 53 games, you know things aren’t going well at either end of the ice.
Indeed, the Red Wings rank last by a mile with just 2.07 goals per game at home this season.
Most of their goal-scoring woes at home have come at 5v5, however, as their power play is a respectable 21st with an 18.3% clip at home.
Defensively, they’re not longer the worst in the league at home – that distinction now belongs to the Edmonton Oilers – but the Wings still rank 30th with 3.44 goals against per game at home. Still, it’s a big improvement on their 4.23 mark on the road.
Their 74.7% mark on the penalty kill at home still ranks 29th, however.
The Red Wings are also dealing with some key injuries at the moment.
The goal-scoring Anthony Mantha has been out since December 21st, but now the Wings will also be without Filip Zadina who is set to miss two-to-three weeks with a lower-body injury.
That’s two key offensive pieces missing for a team that already struggles to score.
If there’s a player that’s been a huge bright spot for the team, at least an unexpected one, it’s been goaltender Jonathan Bernier who gets the nod in goal tonight.
Despite playing behind the worst defensive team in the league, Bernier has turned in a respectable 2.92 GAA and .907 Sv% on the season.
He’s been a little better on the road with a 2.89 GAA and .900 Sv% at home, but he’s also coming off a big outing in turning aside 30 of 31 shots in that 1-0 loss to a good Rangers offense on Saturday.
After a rough start to the season, Bernier as posted a 2.47 GAA and .927 Sv% in eight December starts, a 2.60 GAA and .904 Sv% in three January starts and a beauty in his lone start of February so far.
Bernier has not faced the Flyers this season.
I have hit a couple big plays with the Red Wings this season and despite having just 12 wins in 53 games this season, I am going to roll the dice again here.
I mean, the numbers are not just extremely poor on one side of the equation here. The Wings’ numbers stink at home, sure, but the Flyers’ numbers definitely stink on the road, as well.
Not only have they been bad on the road, but Brian Elliott has been absolutely tortured on the road of late. Considering the splits, it’s actually the Red Wings with the advantage in between the pipes in this one.
Considering the Red Wings allow 3.44 goals per game at home and the Flyers allow 3.81 per game on the road, the defensive advantage goes to the Red Wings, as well.
Furthermore, the Red Wings also hold the better power play in this split to boot.
Do the Flyers win this game more often than not? Probably. However, until their play on the road improves, I can’t trust them against anyone in this league when they’re not playing at the Wells Fargo Center.
Give me the hometown Red Wings at big +179 odds as a result.