It was another perfect 2-0 night last night as my picks enter white-hot territory. I’m now 4-0 over my last two nights and 6-1 since last Monday and +6.82 units during that time.
It’s been one heck of a run as I hit a couple of moneyline road favorites on last night’s schedule.
I had the Vegas Golden Knights as road underdogs, albeit slight ones at -110 as they took on the Flames in Calgary.
The Golden Knights jumped out to a 2-0 first-period lead and stretched it to 3-0 early in the second as it looked like we would cruise to victory. It’s rarely that easy, however, as the Flames battled back an even tied the game at three early in the third.
That said, it was a brief deadlock as Shea Theodore potted what would stand up as the game-winner and Vegas tacked on an empty-netter and took this one by a 5-3 final.
I also had the Blues as more substantial road favorites at -135 in Chicago.
This one was a low scoring affair as it was tied at zeros after one, but the Blues would score once in each of the next two periods and Jake Allen stopped all 29 Blackhawks shots en route to a 2-0 shutout win.
All told, the clean 2-0 night netted as 2.00 units in profit as I turn my attention to this five-game Monday night schedule!
Season Record: 110-93-1
Now let’s dive into this free NHL pick featuring the Golden Knights vs. Oilers from Rogers Place in Edmonton!
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Betting Odds
- Golden Knights (+108)
- Oilers (-119)
- Golden Knights -1.5 (-240)
- Oilers -1.5 (+200)
- Over 6 (-103)
- Under 6 (-107)
Golden Knights vs. Oilers NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s check in with each of these clubs before I get into my final pick!
Tonight marks the second game in as many nights for Vegas after they won a pivotal clash last night over the Flames in Calgary. Like most games in the west these days, it’s another big-time matchup tonight in Edmonton.
In fact, a regulation loss to the Oilers tonight and Edmonton jumps back over Vegas for top spot in the Pacific thanks to their game in hand.
The Golden Knights bounced back nicely last night after a 4-0 loss in Winnipeg on Friday, however, behind a strong offense performance.
Their offense hasn’t been anything special on the road this season as their 2.94 goals per game away from home rank 17th in the league and their power play has been downright pitiful on the road where they sit 26th with a 15.1% clip.
That said, that power play scored on its only opportunity last night and is 2 for 7 over their last four games.
They’ve been pretty good defensively on the road where they sit ninth with 2.94 goals against per game away from home on the season, although their road penalty kill slips into a tie for 22nd with a 78.1% mark.
That penalty kill has also been absolutely shredded of late, going 0 for 3 over their last two games and just 3 for 8 (37.5%) over their last four games. Yikes.
One area where Vegas truly excels on the road is in the possession game.
At 5v5 on the road, the Golden Knights rank first with a 53.86% Corsi For%, first with a 54.91% Scoring Chances For% and third with a 51.54% High-Danger Chances For%.
Vegas also hasn’t received great goaltending on the road where they rank 21st with a .910 Sv% at 5v5, and their superior netminder started last night’s game in Calgary in the form of Robin Lehner.
While some of that save percentage figure on the road is attributed to former Golden Knight Malcolm Subban, veteran Marc-Andre Fleury has regressed this season.
It’s not to say that he’s been terrible, but his 2.79 GAA and .905 Sv% are much worse than his previous two seasons with Vegas.
That said, he’s actually performed better on the road with a 2.60 GAA and solid .912 Sv%, but still owns an 8-7-2 record in his 17 starts and 18 appearances away from home.
Fleury has been torched over his last two starts as well, posting a 4.09 GAA and .905 Sv% in losing two in a row, most recently a 4-0 loss in Winnipeg on Friday after taking a 4-1 loss to the Kings at home last Sunday.
He did, however, stop all 29 shots he saw against the Oilers at home in his third-to-last start, but also struggled in allowing four goals on 31 shots (.871 Sv%) in a 4-2 loss to the Oilers back on November 23rd.
The Oilers briefly took first place from Vegas with a 4-1 win over the Blue Jackets their last time out on Saturday, although they were fortunate to win that one as they were vastly outplayed and outshot by a 46-24 count.
At the end of the day, however, it was their fourth win over their last five games.
They haven’t been great at home this season with a 17-10-5 record at Rogers Arena, mostly due to to their play defensively.
Only the league-worst Red Wings have allowed more than the 3.38 goals per game the Oilers have allowed on home ice this season, although they’ve allowed just three goals over their last two at home.
Their home penalty kill sits in the middle of the pack in a share of 15th with an 80.9% mark, but that penalty kill has been excellent in going 14 for 15 (93.3%) over their last five games.
The Oilers have been good on offense at home and their power play has been flat-out elite all season, regardless of where they’re playing.
Edmonton sits 12th with 3.34 goals per game at home this season, but their 32% clip on the man advantage at home is by far the best mark in the NHL.
The power play has gone 0 for 2 over its last two games, but went 5 for 8 in the three games prior, so they’re still a whopping 5 for 10 for a 50% clip over their last five contests.
With Connor McDavid, James Neal and now Oscar Klefbom back in the lineup, it’s not a fully-healthy Oilers top power play unit that features the top two point-producers in the NHL.
Unlike the Golden Knights, the Oilers aren’t going to blow you away with their possession metrics.
At 5v5 at home, the Oilers rank 26th with a 48.25% Corsi For%, 27th with a 48.18% Scoring Chances For% and 25th with a 50.27% High-Danger Chances For%.
They’ve also struggled to get goaltending at home where their .905 Sv% at 5v5 ranks 28th and it will be up to Mikko Koskinen to buck that trend tonight.
Koskinen owns a 2.75 GAA and .917 Sv% on the season, but he’s struggled to the tune of a 3.28 GAA and .900 Sv% at home this season in 18 appearances.
Needless to say, the Oilers are riding the hot hand into this one tonight.
It turned out to be a hard-fought win for the Golden Knights in Calgary last night after blowing that 3-0 second-period lead, and that makes it an even tougher back-to-back in this one tonight.
The Oilers probably didn’t deserve to win on Saturday, but they did and they are now rested and didn’t have to travel prior to taking on the Golden Knights tonight.
To me, I really like the home side here.
For one, the goaltenders in this matchup are exploding in opposite directions. Fleury has struggled mightily in two straight starts while Koskinen has been lights out over his last two starts and three appearances.
Another area that stands out to me is on special teams. The Golden Knights have been getting gouged on the penalty kill of late while the Oilers continue to shred the opposition on the man advantage.
Add in the superior offense in this split, and I simply see the Oilers outscoring Vegas in this one, and last time I checked that’s how you win hockey games.
As a result, give me the Oilers on the moneyline in this one tonight.