Islanders vs. Avalanche Pick – NHL October 30th

The Wild and Bruins ended up getting into a pretty entertaining game the other night, which was good for ratings, but wasn’t good for the bankroll. The Wild ultimately came back and won the game, 4-3, but in the process putting the game over the total. The Bruins and Wild will typically play in low scoring games all season long, so it isn’t going to make me shy away from making the same bet in the future. The bet loss, but I would make that same bet again if given the chance. Ideally for formula for success in sports handicapping is picking more than you lose right, not winning them all. While hitting 90% of plays would be something to behold, it isn’t realistic. Let’s look towards a trend tonight that has been making bettors serious money on the NHL in 2014 already.
This isn’t how the Avalanche seen this season going, thus far anyway. They were arguably the biggest surprise of last season. The Patrick Roy experiment was a major hit, propelling the young Avalanche to the playoffs, and one of the best records in the NHL during the regular season. Roy needs to get a grasp on his team before his sophomore season as an NHL coach is a waste. If Roy can string together a few successful regular seasons there is a big payday in his forecast. It is an important time for all in Colorado. The Avalanche ended up moving Stastny in the offseason, who had great chemistry with others on this team. Money was going to be an issue, so it was a necessary evil for the Colorado Avalanche. I see this year’s Islanders a lot like the Avalanche last year. Young team with plenty of talent that may very well put on a season that may surprise a few people. Most certainly the most talented Islanders team that we have seen in quite a few years.

N.Y. Islanders @ Colorado Avalanche

The first month of a season is no way to judge where a team is going to be in March, though. It really was the same thing with Colorado last season, lots of success early, but were they going to be able to keep it together? They did, and ended up losing in heart breaking fashion in the first round of the playoffs. Will the Islanders be able to keep this pace up? They are at 6-3 thus far, and the Avs are on the opposite end of the spectrum with a 2-4-4 mark over their first 10 games of the season. The offense hasn’t been as potent as last season, but the real question will be with the defense. Get this, the Avalanche allowed 51 shots to the Sharks on Tuesday! Goaltender Semyon Varlamov stopped 49 of them which is amazing by all accounts. But this isn’t what is going to make for a winning season if they want to give up this many shots. And it has been happening all year long. Not to that extent, but there has been an influx of shots on net. The Avs are allowing 36 shots on net per game and are giving up 3.10 goals a game. Too many goals going in the net, but considering what the Avalanche goalies have had to face they are doing all they can.

This Islanders’ offense has been one of the best in the NHL this season. Colorado should expect to face another barrage of shots on net. The Isles are hitting the net 32 times per game. They are also almost scoring 4 goals per game, averaging 3.78. 3.78 goals per game is good for 2nd in the NHL, trailing only the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens have some defense, however. In the Islanders case there is little to no defense backing them up. They’re near the top of the NHL in scoring, but at the same time are one of the worst in goals against. They are 26th in the league in that respect, allowing opposing teams to score 3.44 times a game. The Avalanche recently belted a poor defensive team, the Canucks, for 7 goals. They more than likely won’t hit the 7 goal mark again, but should be able to get theirs against this Islanders’ defensive unit at home. The OVER is juiced for a reason. There should be lots of goals. If it moves to 6, I still like this bet. If you want to save the juice, you may want to play the 6 anyway. But I am going to lock this one in at 5.5 with a price of -130 in case it gets higher.

Pick – OVER 5.5 GOALS (-130) @ (Best Odds)