I made a pair of free NHL picks last night and my white-hot stretch continued as I rattled off a pair of winners and notched a heavy profit on the night.
The Jets visited the Maple Leafs in a game where I had Winnipeg to notch the upset as big +170 road underdogs.
That’s indeed what took place, but it wasn’t easy. The Jets seemingly had a regulation win in their grasp, but a lost faceoff and an Auston Matthews laser tied the game with 12 seconds to go. However, after a chaotic overtime and goal-filled shootout, the Jets came out on top and hit a big winner for us.
At about the same time, I had the Flyers to upset the visiting Capitals as +111 home dogs.
Again, it happened. A 2-2 tie late in the game was broken by the Flyers’ Kevin Hayes on a shorthanded breakaway and after a tough trip in which they won just one of six games, the Flyers got back on the winning track in a 3-2 upset of the east-leading Caps.
The two winners combined for 2.82 units in profit as we sizzle into tonight’s 11-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 71-58-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Jets vs. Bruins from the TD Garden in Boston!
Jets vs. Bruins Betting Odds
- Jets (+195)
- Bruins (-235)
- Jets +1.5 (-125)
- Bruins -1.5 (+105)
- Over 6 (-105)
- Under 6 (-115)
Jets vs. Bruins NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these clubs before getting into my final pick!
As noted, the Jets are coming off a big upset of the Maple Leafs last night, marking their second straight win after edging the Habs 3-2 in Montreal on Monday.
The Jets have been good on the road this season where they’ve gone 14-7-2 this season, and they sport that record for two reasons.
One, they are a very good road offense where they have scored 3.26 goals per game on the season, good for the eighth-best mark in hockey. That mark is also superior to their 26th-ranked 2.81 goals per game on home ice.
The second reason is Connor Hellebuyck.
The Jets No.1 goaltender has gone 11-5-2 on the road this season where he’s posted a 2.62 GAA and .925 Sv% across 18 starts.
Aside from the good numbers, you can see the Hellebuyck effect in their possession metrics away from home where they sport some of the worst numbers the NHL has to offer.
So, why the good record despite being dominated in possession and scoring chance share?
Again, ability to finish and goaltending.
The Jets rank sixth with a 9.80% 5v5 road shooting percentage this year with a fourth-ranked 20.69 high-danger 5v5 road shooting percentage as well. They capitalize on their chances.
They also rank fifth with a .933 Sv% at 5v5 road play and fourth with an .858 Sv% on high-danger chances against at 5v5 on the road. In other words, Hellebuyck has been among the best goaltenders in the league in terms of bailing his team out.
The problem for Winnipeg tonight is that either Hellebuyck will play his second game in as many nights after a game that went into a crazy overtime and shootout last night, or backup Laurent Brossoit will be tasked with covering for his team’s lack of possession in Boston tonight.
Brossoit hasn’t had a good season as he would enter this one sporting a 3.50 GAA and .889 Sv% on the season with a 3.04 GAA and .904 Sv% across his five road starts and six road appearances this season.
Regardless of how you slice it, the Jets goaltending situation doesn’t look great tonight.
After struggling for consistency for much of the last few weeks, the Bruins went into Nashville and thoroughly handled the Predators to the tune of a 6-2 score on Tuesday night.
The win snapped a three-game losing streak for the Atlantic Division leaders and their offense got back on track after scoring just one goal in each of their two previous games.
That said, offense hasn’t been much of an issue for the Bruins this season as they rank 14th with 3.24 goals per game on home ice this season where their power play has been deadly to the tune of a 29.5% clip, good for fourth-best in the league.
That power play has also been red-hot of late, scoring at least once in each of their last 10 games and posting a 30.8% clip in that time.
Their penalty kill, after going eight games without giving up a goal, was finally solved by going just 5 for 7 on Tuesday, but the Bruins rank third with a stout 88.5% mark on the PK on home ice this season.
This is a team that earns their keep at the defensive end of the ice at the end of the day.
Boston ranks fifth with 2.40 goals against per game at home this season and have seen both Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak enjoy excellent seasons between the pipes.
Perhaps the best goaltending duo in the NHL, the two veterans have alternated starts of late, and it’s Halak’s turn in goal tonight against the Jets.
The veteran netminder has posted a 2.25 GAA and .928 Sv% on the season, although goal support while he’s in the crease hasn’t been there for the most part as he’s just 9-4-5 as well.
Still, he owns a 2.41 GAA and .920 Sv% on home ice and posted a 1.98 GAA and .930 Sv% in December before allowing three goals in a 4-1 loss to the Oilers on Saturday to open his month of January.
I mentioned in the Jets section that they have won on the road based on offense and goaltending.
The offense is going to be tough to come by against the NHL’s fifth-ranked home defense and third-ranked home penalty kill.
The goaltending situation isn’t look good either as it’s either a non-rested Hellebuyck playing his second game in an extremely tough back-to-back or the backup Brossoit who has struggled all year.
Needless to say, I don’t see this as a good spot for the visitors.
Add in the fact that the Bruins snapped out of a funk, both in the win column and on the scoreboard and it’s really, really not a good spot for them in this one tonight.
I think this could be a tough one for the Jets, especially if the Bruins are indeed hitting their stride again.
As a result, give me the Bruins on the puckline to win this one by at least two goals on home ice.