I made three free NHL picks last night and once again it was a profitable night as I keep rolling through this NHL season.
The fist winner of the night came between the Islanders and Devils from New Jersey where I had the Islanders on the moneyline at -116.
It wasn’t easy and the game was a back-and-forth affair that saw the Islanders continuously get a one-goal lead only to see the Devils score an equalizer. However, the game went into overtime where Islanders captain Anders Lee potted the winner.
At about the same time, I had the Avalanche and Rangers to play to a low-scoring game on Broadway.
However, that was not the case. Philipp Grubauer wasn’t sharp and the teams exchanged goals for much of the night, however, the Rangers would get the last laugh in this one as they upset the Avs with a 5-3 win on home ice.
Finally, I had the Bruins to go into Nashville and spoil John Hynes’ Predators coaching debut at -117 odds on the moneyline.
This is where the night turned into a profit as the Bruins pummelled on the Preds on road to the tune of a 6-2 count and earned us a 0.99-unit profit on the night!
Let’s put a quality night behind us and move onto tonight’s small two-game slate!
Season Record: 69-58-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Jets vs. Maple Leafs from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto!
Jets vs. Maple Leafs Betting Odds
- Jets (+170)
- Maple Leafs (-200)
- Jets +1.5 (-160)
- Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140)
- Over 6.5 (-115)
- Under 6.5 (-105)
Jets vs. Maple Leafs NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these teams before I get into my final pick!
For the second time in six days, the Jets will take on the surging Maple Leafs after they took a 6-3 loss to the Leafs at home last Thursday.
However, many in the Jets’ locker room felt they deserved a better fate, which is hard to argue against as the Jets outshot the Leafs 48-28 in that one but witnessed a rare off night from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck who allowed five goals in two periods of work.
After losing an overtime tilt in Minnesota two nights later, the Jets got back into the win column with a 3-2 road win over the Canadiens in Montreal and will look for a similar result in the third game of a four-game road trip tonight in Toronto.
They’ll enter this one ranked eighth with 3.27 goals per game on the road this season where they’re still looking for their 19th-ranked road power play (17.5%) to find its way.
Winnipeg has also been one of the better defensive road teams in the league this season where they are tied for eighth with 2.95 goals against per game on the season.
However, the Jets are getting outshot by an average of 5.2 shots per game on the road and their advanced numbers there aren’t pretty, either.
At 5v5 on the road this season, the Jets rank 28th with a 45.96 Corsi For% (CF%), 27th with a 44.83% Scoring Chances For% (SCF%) and 30th with a brutal 38.70% High-Danger Chances For% (HDCF%).
That final number is particularly concerning, but the good news is that Hellebuyck has been there to bail out his team in such situations, which is a big reason why the Jets are a nice 13-7-2 on the road this season.
Entering this one tonight, Hellebuyck owns a 2.69 GAA and .920 Sv% on the season, but he’s been better on the road to the tune of a 2.61 GAA and .926 Sv% across 17 outings.
He’s a big reason why the Jets rank fifth with a .933 Sv% at 5v5 on the road and third with an .862 Sv% on high-danger chances on the road.
They give up a lot of chances on the road, but their goaltender has been there to bail them out.
Heading into their matchup with the Oilers on Monday, the Maple Leafs were a cool 9-0-1 over their previous 10 games, but that came to a screeching halt against Connor McDavid and co.
McDavid scored a highlight-reel goal en route to a 6-4 Oilers win, a game in which the Maple Leafs’ back end was exposed.
It’s a back end that is tied for 20th with 3.10 goals against per game at home this season and one that struggled in Winnipeg last week, only to be helped out big-time by Frederik Andersen who was pulled after allowing three goals on 19 shots on Monday night.
Where the Maple Leafs weren’t cooled off was on offense.
They four goals on Monday marked the ninth time in their last 10 in which they tallied that many and they are still averaging north of four goals per game under the 20 games Sheldon Keefe has been behind their bench.
The Maple Leafs now rank eighth with 3.48 goals per game on home ice this season and their power play has clicked at over 37% over their last nine games.
Still, one has to wonder if the defensive issues – especially with top defender Jake Muzzin out of the lineup with a broken foot – will prevent them from fully taking advantage of their white-hot offense moving forward.
Helping them in that department this season, again, has been Andersen.
However, Andersen has been a little inconsistent of late. He finished the month of December with a 3.03 GAA and .904 SV% and owns a 4.40 GAA and .910 Sv% across two games in January thus far.
He was brilliant in Winnipeg last week, but struggled in allowing three goals in less than 22 minutes on Monday.
He’s also sporting some reverse splits that include a 2.32 GAA and .927 Sv% on the road but just a 3.11 GAA and .904 Sv% across 18 starts at home.
Finally, Andersen owns an .856 Sv% over his last three at home.
When I looked at the odds for the Maple Leafs and Oilers on Monday, I liked the Oilers at +188 coming in off a big road win in Boston while the Maple Leafs have shown some weaknesses on the back end once again.
I’m feeling something similar tonight.
The Leafs are heavy favorites despite probably deserving to lose to the Jets just six days ago and certainly deserving of their loss to Edmonton on Monday.
The Jets, meanwhile, bounced back with a nice win in Montreal on Monday and you can be Hellebuyck will be determined to reward his team tonight in the rematch after letting them down last week.
The possession numbers heavily favor the Maple Leafs in this one, but I’m not liking how this one is trending for the home side.
I’m going to take the Jets as heavy road underdogs on the moneyline tonight.