Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Pick – Game 5

The NHL is set up with another strong slate of hockey on May 10. Four games are up on the board throughout Tuesday night. One of these games will be between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs. These two teams have been solid throughout this series and will look for a big win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 7:30 PM Eastern time on ESPN2.

Tampa Bay finished out the regular season with a record of 51-23-8, which had them grab the third seed in the Atlantic division. The Lightning have had their ups and downs this season, but now have their eyes on their third straight Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay will look to build on their last win on the road in this one. I expect the Lightning to try and come out fast on Tuesday night.

The Maple Leafs put up a record of 54-21-7 throughout the regular season, which had them in second place of the Atlantic division. Toronto has been strong throughout this series so far, but is coming off a disappointing loss in Game 4. The Maple Leafs will look to push the Lightning towards elimination with a win at home though.

These two teams were strong throughout the season and have met in an exciting playoff series so far. Toronto has not fallen behind in this series, but the Lightning have a key opportunity to go up 3-2 in this series. The Maple Leafs will look to step up at home on Tuesday night though. If either team can come out fast, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Tampa Bay Lightning +1 ½ (-235) +110 Over 6 ½ (-120)
Toronto Maple Leafs -1 ½ (+195) -130 Under 6 ½ (+100)


Team Data Tampa Bay Lightning Toronto Maple Leafs
Playoff Record 2-2 2-2
Playoff Away/ Home Record 1-1 1-1
Playoff GF/GP 3.50 4.00
Playoff GF/GP Away/ Home 2.50 4.00
Playoff SV% .874 .883
Playoff SV% Away/ Home .879 .914

Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 14-8 on Tuesday nights
  • 17-13 against divisional opponents
  • 19-10 after a divisional game
  • 18-14 after a win by two or more goals
  • 22-17 after scoring four goals or more
  • 22-23 against team with a winning record

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • 11-3 on Tuesday nights
  • 18-12 against divisional opponents
  • 20-10 after a divisional game
  • 24-12 after allowing four goals or more
  • 12-7 after a loss by two or more goals
  • 31-15 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met in a tight four game series so far. Auston Matthews had two goals and an assist in Game 1, while Jack Campbell had a 24 shot shutout in route to a 5-0 win. Victor Hedman had a goal and three assists in the Game 2 as Tampa Bay won 5-3. Campbell stopped 32 of 34 shots in Game 3 as Toronto earned a 5-2 win. Ross Colton scored twice in Game 4 to lead the Lightning to a 7-3 win.

Special Teams

The Lightning were solid on special teams throughout the regular season. Tampa Bay scored on 62 of their 259 power play chances, which was a 23.9 percent power play. The Lightning killed off 203 of their opponents 252 power play attempts, which was an 80.6 percent kill rate. Tampa Bay was 8th on the power play and 11th on the kill this season.

Toronto was strong on special teams during the regular season. The Maple Leafs capitalized on 63 of their 231 power play opportunities, which was a 27.3 percent success rate. Toronto gave up 42 power play goals on 234 penalties against, which was an 82.1 percent penalty kill. The Maple Leafs were 1st on the man advantage and 8th on the penalty kill.

These two teams will look for their special teams to step up in this one. Tampa Bay has been a bit better on the power play in this series so far. The Lightning have scored on 5 of their 23 power play chances, while Toronto has capitalized on 3 of their 18 power play attempts. Both teams will need to clean up their penalties against though in Game 5.

Goaltending Comparison

Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the start in the crease for Tampa Bay in this one. Vasilevskiy went 39-18-5 throughout the regular season. He posted a .916 save percentage and a GAA of 2.49 in those games. Vasilevskiy has put up a save percentage of .888 and a 3.54 GAA throughout this postseason run and will look to step up in this one.

Jack Campbell will get the nod between the pipes for the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night. Campbell earned a record of 31-9-6 throughout the regular season. He put up a save percentage of .914 and a 2.64 GAA in his matchups. Campbell has posted a .889 save percentage and a GAA of 3.53 in the playoffs so far.

These two goalies will look to step up early in this matchup. Vasilevskiy has struggled in the playoffs after back to back strong postseason runs before this. Campbell will need to step up as well after getting pulled in Game 4. If either goalie can come out fast in this one, it could be enough to lead their team to the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a big win in this one. The Lightning are coming off a big win and will look to build on it in this one. I think that Vasilevskiy is due for a dominant game, which would help Tampa Bay take the lead in the series. If the Lightning can grab an early lead, I think they can win this one.

Bovada has Toronto listed as a -130 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Maple Leafs will win this game around 56.5 percent of the time. I think that this line should be closer to even with both teams playing well in this series. The Lightning will look to carry momentum into this game early. As underdogs, I like the value on Tampa Bay.

The Bet
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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