Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers NHL Pick – Game 5

The NHL is set up with another strong slate of hockey throughout June 9. The Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers will meet up in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday night. These two teams have met in an exciting series so far and will look for a big win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 8:00 PM Eastern time on ESPN.

Tampa Bay has earned a record of 10-5 throughout the postseason as the third seed in the Atlantic division. The Lightning have knocked off the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers to reach the Conference Finals. Tampa Bay fell down early in this series, but bounced back with two wins at home. The Lightning will look to regain the lead on the road in this one.

The Rangers have put up a record of 10-8 throughout the playoffs as the second seed in the Metropolitan division. New York eliminated the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes both in seven games. The Rangers will look to take the series lead back with a win in this one after dropping their last two. I expect New York to come out fast at home in this one.

These two teams have had strong playoff runs to this point and will look to keep it going in Game 5. The Lightning have been hot after dropping the first two games of this series. New York will look to bounce back quickly at home though. If either team can come out strong in this one, it could be enough to earn the pivotal win in Game 5 of this series.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 ½ (+200) -130 Over 5 ½ (+120)
New York Rangers +1 ½ (-240) +110 Under 5 ½ (-140)


Team Data Tampa Bay Lightning New York Rangers
Playoff Record 10-5 10-8
Playoff Away/ Home Record 4-4 8-1
Playoff GF/GP 3.13 3.33
Playoff GF/GP Away/ Home 2.50 4.22
Playoff SV% .922 .924
Playoff SV% Away/ Home .906 .948

Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 1-2 when tied in series
  • 20-16 after a win by two or more goals
  • 25-18 after scoring four goals or more
  • 30-26 against team with a winning record

New York Rangers

  • 2-2 when tied in series
  • 18-7 after allowing four or more goals
  • 14-6 after a loss by two goals or more
  • 9-6 after scoring one goal or less
  • 33-25 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met in an exciting four games so far. New York hosted the first two games. Adam Fox had four assists in those two games, while Filip Chytil had two goals and an assist. The Rangers won 6-2 and 3-2. The next two games were in Tampa Bay. Nikita Kucherov had a goal and two assists in Game 3, while Ondrej Palat had a goal and two assists in Game 4 as the Lightning won 3-2 and 4-1.

Special Teams

The Lightning have been solid on special teams throughout the playoffs. Tampa Bay has scored on 14 of their 59 power play chances, which is a 23.7 percent power play. The Lightning have killed off 45 of their opponents 54 power play attempts, which is an 83.3 percent kill rate. Tampa Bay is 3rd on the power play and 1st on the kill in the remaining field of 3.

New York has been strong on the power play throughout the postseason. The Rangers have capitalized on 17 of their 53 power play opportunities, which is a 32.1 percent success rate. New York has given up 11 power play goals on 52 penalties against, which is a 78.9 percent penalty kill. The Rangers are 1st on the man advantage and 2nd on the penalty kill.

The Rangers have the better power play on the postseason, while Tampa Bay has been the better team on the kill. These two teams will look for their special teams to step up in this one. Both teams have found success in this series on the man advantage and will look to keep it going. If either team can get a power play goal, it could give them the edge in this one.

Goaltending Comparison

Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely get the start in the crease for Tampa Bay in this one. Vasilevskiy has started in all 15 games, going 10-5 in those matchups. He has posted a .925 save percentage and a GAA of 2.44 in those outings. Vasilevskiy finished with 34 saves on 35 shots in Game 4, which was enough to help the Lightning tie this series back up.

Igor Shesterkin will get the nod between the pipes for the Rangers on Thursday night. Shesterkin has earned a record of 10-7 in those games. He has put up a save percentage of .929 and a 2.65 GAA in those starts. Shesterkin stopped 27 of 30 shots in the last matchup, which was not enough for the win in Game 3.

These two goalies have been strong throughout the postseason and will look to keep it going. Vasilevskiy has been strong in the last two games to help tie the series back up. Shesterkin was solid in Game 4, but will need some more offense in this one. Both goalies will look to step up early. If either goalie can come out strong, it could be enough for the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have met in a tight series so far and will look for a big win in this one. The Lightning have won their last two games and will look to keep it going in this one. New York will look to get their eighth straight win at home. The Rangers struggled to get offense going in the last two games, but I expect them to change things up back at home for Game 5.

Bovada has Tampa Bay listed as a -130 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Lightning will win this game around 56.5 percent of the time. I think that this line should be closer to even with New York playing so well at home. The Rangers are much better than this line implies. As home underdogs, I like the value on New York to take the series lead.

The Bet
New York Rangers
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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