Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Pick – Game 6

The NHL is set up with another strong slate of hockey throughout May 12. Four potential elimination games will be up on the board on Thursday night. One of these games will be between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning. These two teams have been strong in their series and will look for a huge win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 7:30 PM Eastern on TBS.

Toronto finished the regular season with a record of 54-21-7, which had them grab the second seed in the Atlantic division. The Maple Leafs have been strong throughout this series and will look to build on their Game 5 win. Toronto will look to finally eliminate their first round demons with a series win on Thursday. I expect the Maple Leafs to come out hot in this one.

The Lightning put up a record of 51-23-8 during the regular season, which had them in third place of the Atlantic division. Tampa Bay has done a great job fighting back in this series, but has not led in this series. The Lightning have also not dropped back to back games in the playoffs since 2019. Tampa Bay will look to keep this going with a huge win in Game 6.

These two teams have been strong throughout this series and will look for a pivotal win as they meet up in Game 6. The Maple Leafs have not trailed yet in the series, but do not want to go back home for a Game 7. Tampa Bay will look to tie this series back up for the third straight time. If either team can come out hot in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Toronto Maple Leafs +1 ½ (-230) +105 Over 6 ½ (-120)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 ½ (+190) -125 Under 6 ½ (+100)
Team Data Toronto Maple Leafs Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Record 3-2 2-3
Playoff Away/ Home Record 1-1 1-1
Playoff GF/GP 4.00 3.40
Playoff GF/GP Away/ Home 4.00 4.50
Playoff SV% .890 .868
Playoff SV% Away/ Home .855 .869

Betting Trends

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • 19-12 against divisional opponents
  • 21-10 after a division game
  • 0-2 when leading in a series
  • 31-15 after scoring four or more goals
  • 32-15 against team with a winning record

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 17-14 against divisional opponent
  • 19-11 after a division game
  • 2-0 when trailing in series
  • 17-14 after allowing four goals or more
  • 22-24 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up in a tight five game series so far. The Maple Leafs dominated in Game 1 as they won 5-0, but the Lightning bounced back in Game 2 with a 5-3 win. Pierre Engvall had three assists in Game 3 as Toronto won 5-2. Ross Colton scored twice in the Game 4 as Tampa Bay won 7-3. William Nylander had a goal and two assists in Game 5 as the Maple Leafs erased a 2-0 lead to win 4-3.

Special Teams

The Maple Leafs were strong on special teams throughout the regular season. Toronto scored on 63 of their 231 power play chances, which was a 27.3 percent success rate. The Maple Leafs killed off 192 of their opponents 234 power play attempts, which was an 82.1 percent penalty kill. Toronto was 1st on the man advantage and 8th on the penalty kill.

Tampa Bay was solid on special teams as well in the regular season. The Lightning capitalized on 62 of their 259 power play opportunities, which was a 23.9 percent power play. Tampa Bay gave up 49 power play goals on 252 penalties against, which was an 80.7 percent kill rate. The Lightning were 8th on the power play and 11th on the kill.

Toronto was better on special teams in the regular season, but the Lightning have had the better special teams in this series. Tampa Bay has scored on 6 of their 28 power play attempts. The Maple Leafs have capitalized on 4 of their 24 power play chances. Both teams will look for a power play goal to give them the edge in this one.

Goaltending Comparison

Jack Campbell will get the start in the crease for Toronto in Game 6. Campbell started in 47 games in the regular season, going 31-9-6 in those matchups. He posted a .914 save percentage and a GAA of 2.64 in those outings. Campbell has put up a save percentage of .895 and a 3.41 GAA throughout this series so far.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the nod between the pipes for the Lightning in this one. Vasilevskiy earned a record of 39-18-5 throughout those matchups. He put up a save percentage of .916 and a 2.49 GAA in his starts. Vasilevskiy has posted a .880 save percentage and a GAA of 3.65 throughout the postseason for Tampa Bay.

These two goalies have struggled a bit throughout this series as offense has been dominant. Both goalies have had their big saves in this series though and will look to step up early in this one. Campbell has been a bit better, but Vasilevskiy has won back to back Stanley Cups, so he cannot be counted out. If either goalie steps up early, it could be enough for the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been strong throughout this series and will look for a big win in this one. The Lightning are coming off a heartbreaking loss in Game 5 after starting with a 2-0 lead. Toronto will look to build on that win as they try to make the second round. If the Maple Leafs can come out fast, I like their chances to finally win in the first round.

Bovada has Tampa Bay listed as a -125 against the money line. This implies that the Lightning will win this game around 55.6 percent of the time. I think that this line should be a bit closer to even with hot tight this series has been. Toronto will come out fast as they try to avoid a dreaded Game 7. As underdogs, I really like the value on the Maple Leafs.

The Bet
Toronto Maple Leafs
+105
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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