I released a pair of free NHL picks last night, both of which resulted in wins, and both of which were underdog wins.
The first of which was the Winnipeg Jets who I took on the road in Toronto as substantial road dogs at +170.
It appeared the Jets were going to win 3-2 in regulation, however Auston Matthews scored in the final seconds of the game to tie it. A crazy overtime and shootout ensued, but the end result was a Jets win and a huge profit for us.
At roughly the same time, I had the Flyers as home underdogs at +111 to take care of the east-leading Capitals at the Wells Fargo Center.
That pick hit as well with the Flyers breakaway a late 2-2 tie thanks to a Kevin Hates shorthanded goal that notched us another nice profit on the night.
All told, we picked up 2.82 units on the night as I move onto tonight’s big 11-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 71-58-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Oilers vs. Canadiens from Montreal!
Oilers vs. Canadiens Betting Odds
- Oilers (+113)
- Canadiens (-125)
- Oilers +1.5 (-208)
- Canadiens -1.5 (+178)
- Over 6 (-109)
- Under 6 (-101)
Oilers vs. Canadiens NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these clubs before getting into my final pick!
Tonight marks game number four of a five-game road swing for the Oilers, the last two of which have gone swimmingly.
After taking a 3-2 loss in Buffalo to start the trip, the Oilers went into Boston and knocked off the Bruins by a 4-1 score and the handled the red-hot Maple Leafs by a 6-4 count two nights later.
Winning on the road hasn’t been uncommon for a team that’s arguably been at their best away from home where they are 13-9-2 on the season compared to a 10-8-3 mark on home ice.
They’ve certainly been at their best from a defensive standpoint on the road.
That’s right, a full goal-per-game better defensively on the road than at home.
The Oilers are in the middle of the pack from an offensive standpoint on the road with their 2.83 goals per game on the season rankings 16th, however that number has trended up thanks to 10 goals over their last two – both on the road.
For a team that’s slipped from the top of the Pacific Division, the Oilers remain excellent on special teams.
They’ll enter this one ranked fourth with a 27.3% mark on the power play on the road, but also own the NHL’s best road penalty kill with a mark of 89.2%.
Edmonton has allowed a power play goal to the Bruins and Maple Leafs over their last two, but went 11 for 12 in their previous four games on the road, good for a 91.7% mark.
Getting the nod in goal tonight for the road side will be Mike Smith who makes his fourth straight start for the Oilers and has gone 2-0-1 with a 2.65 GAA and .918 Sv% over his last three.
Smith’s splits mirror that of his team’s defense this season.
He owns a disastrous 3.66 GAA and .874 Sv% at home, but has been much better on the road where he’s posted a 2.66 GAA and .911 Sv% in 13 outings.
So far, Smith has put a terrible month of December behind him and head coach Dave Tippett is riding the hot hand into this one tonight.
The Canadiens are at a crossroads right now.
Once again, they’re on an extended losing streak, losing each of their last seven games and gaining just one point in that time – an overtime loss to the Penguins on Saturday.
Now, they find themselves near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and quickly fading away from any playoff hopes with plenty of points and teams between them and a postseason spot.
Their play at home this season has been… not good I’ll say.
The Habs are just 8-10-4 at the Bell Centre this season and were swept in a three-game homestand recently before going into Detroit and blowing a third-period lead to the historically-poor Wings.
Montreal sports some attractive possession numbers on the road, but still haven’t been able to take advantage.
They rank 24th with just 2.82 goals per game at home, but the majority of their home woes have been on defense and in goal.
The Canadiens are tied for 26th with 3.23 goals against per game on home ice this season despite owning a +7.5 average shot differential at home.
The .889 Sv% they’ve received from their goaltenders at home also checks in at a share of 26th and it will be up to Carey Price to turn that around tonight.
The problem is Price has been terrible lately and bad at home for the most part this season.
Price has posted a 3.89 GAA and .874 SV% in losing five in a row entering this one tonight and owns a 3.08 GAA and .890 Sv% at home with a 7-9-2 record across 18 starts.
Price started the Canadiens’ game in Edmonton earlier this season, allowing four goals on just 26 shots, good for an .846 Sv%.
This is a true case of two teams heading in opposite directions at the moment.
While it’s probably not considered a hot streak quite yet, the Oilers have played extremely well in each of their last two games against some very good competition.
The Canadiens, meanwhile, have been spinning their wheels for some time and, of course, have lost seven in a row entering this contest tonight.
The Canadiens will get Brendan Gallagher back from a concussion tonight, but are still missing Jonathan Drouin, Paul Byron and Joel Armia up front and will be missing a key blueline piece in Ben Chiarot whose actually been very good for the team in his first season in Montreal.
This is a fully-healthy Oilers team that’s rolling right now, they own the special teams advantage, the big boys are hot and I think they are primed to pull off a road upset over the struggling Canadiens.
I am loving the value here at +113, so give me the Oilers on the moneyline tonight.