Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Pick – March 29

The NHL is set up with a solid Monday night of hockey. Seven games are up on the board throughout March 29. One of these games will be between the Edmonton Oilers and the Toronto Maple Leafs. These two teams have been strong throughout this season, which should lead to a good matchup in this one. This game will tip off at around 7:00 PM Eastern time.

Edmonton has started out this season with a record of 21-13-1, which has them sitting in third place of the North Division. The Oilers are coming off a loss, but have won seven of their last ten. Edmonton is only three points behind the top spot in this division and will look to make up some ground with a win. I expect the Oilers to come out quick in this one.

The Maple Leafs have put up a record of 22-10-2 to this point in the season, which has them in the top spot of the North Division. Toronto has won three games in a row and will look to keep it up. The Maple Leafs only have a two point lead on the second place Winnipeg Jets and will look to build that lead in this one. I expect Toronto to try and set up their game early in this one.

These two teams are competing near the top of the North Division, which should lead to a great game on Monday night. The Oilers are coming off another loss to Toronto, but they will look to finish out the season series with a win in this one. The Maple Leafs have had Edmonton’s number throughout this season, but I expect the Oilers to switch things up in this one.

Previous Matchups

The Oilers and the Maple Leafs have met up eight times so far this season. The first two games were in Toronto. Leon Draisaitl scored the game winner, while Mikko Koskinen stopped 25 of 26 shots in the first game of the season series as Edmonton won 3-1. Mitch Marner had a goal and an assist in the second game to lift the Maple Leafs to a 4-2 win.

The third and fourth game of the season series shifted to Edmonton. Jason Spezza had a goal and an assist on the night to help lead Toronto to a 4-3 win in the third game. Connor McDavid finished with two goals and an assist in the fourth game of the season series. McDavid scored the winner in overtime as the Oilers won 4-3.

Edmonton also hosted the fifth, sixth and seventh game of the season series between February 27 and March 3. Jack Campbell earned a 30 shot shutout in the fifth game as the Maple Leafs earned a 4-0 win. Michael Hutchinson followed that up with a 31 shot shutout of his own to help Toronto win 3-0. Jimmy Vesey scored twice and Jason Spezza had three assists in the seventh game as the Maple Leafs won 6-1.

The eighth game of the season series shifted to Toronto on March 27. Leon Draisaitl had a goal and two assists, while Tyson Barrie and Connor McDavid both had two points. It was enough to force overtime for the Oilers. Auston Matthews and William Nylander each had a goal and an assist. Matthews scored the winner in overtime to help lead the Maple Leafs to a 4-3 win.

Special Teams

The Oilers have been strong on the power play throughout this season. Edmonton has capitalized on 30 of their 112 power play chances, which is a 26.8 percent success rate. The Oilers have struggled a bit on the penalty kill though. Edmonton has given up 24 power play goals on 102 penalties against, which is a 76.5 percent penalty kill.

Toronto’s power play has also been really strong to this point in the season. The Maple Leafs have scored on 26 of their 99 power play attempts, which is a 26.3 percent power play. Toronto has also not been great on the penalty kill. The Maple Leafs have killed off 74 of their opponents 96 power play opportunities, which is a 77.1 percent kill rate.

These two teams have been very similar on special teams throughout this season. Both power plays have been strong, while the penalty kills have struggled. I expect these two teams to come out strong in this one on the penalty kill as they look to neutralize their opponents power play. If either team gets going on the power play, it could be enough for the win.

Goaltending Comparison

I expect Mike Smith to get the start in the crease for Edmonton in this one. Smith has earned a record of 11-3-1 throughout his games played this season. He has posted a save percentage of .918 and a 2.44 GAA through this season. Smith’s last start was against Toronto, where he stopped 27 of 31 shots in the overtime loss.

Jack Campbell will likely get the nod in between the pipes for the Maple Leafs on Monday night. Campbell has started in 6 games this season, going a perfect 6-0. He has put up a .945 save percentage and a GAA of 1.48. Campbell finished with 17 saves on 20 shots in his last start against the Oilers, which was enough to earn the win in overtime.

These two goalies have been strong throughout this season, which should lead to a great matchup in this one. Campbell has done a great job as of late and will look to keep it up as Frederik Andersen is still out. The Oilers were able to break through on Campbell in the last game and if they can get more pressure on him, they could hand Campbell his first loss.

Pick Overview

The Oilers have lost four straight games to Toronto after going 2-2 against them to start out the season series. I think Edmonton can bounce back in this one though. The Maple Leafs were able to come from behind on Saturday afternoon, but I think the Oilers will come out hotter in this one. If Edmonton can put more pressure on Campbell, I think they can finish this season series with a win.

BetOnline has Toronto listed as a -150 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Maple Leafs will win this game around 60 percent of the time. I think that this line is a little big with how tight these two teams are in the standings. I like the Oilers to earn a big win in this one as they look to close in on the top spot. I really like the value on Edmonton as underdogs in this one.

The Bet
Edmonton Oilers
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.