Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Pick – Game 4

The NHL is set up with another strong slate of hockey action on Monday night. Two matchups will be up on the board throughout May 23. One of these games will be between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning. These two teams have been solid throughout this series and will look for a big win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 7:00 PM Eastern time on TNT.

Florida has earned a record of 4-5 throughout these playoffs after winning the President’s Trophy as the top team in the NHL. The Panthers knocked off the Washington Capitals in six games in the first round. Florida now finds themselves in a 3-0 series deficit entering Monday’s game. The Panthers will look to switch things up as they find their season on the line.

The Lightning have posted a record of 7-3 so far in the postseason as the third seed in the Atlantic division. Tampa Bay eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games in the first round and have dominated in this series. The Lightning will look to move on with a big win at home. Tampa Bay will look for a fast start in this one.

These two teams have been strong throughout the playoffs and will look for a big win in this one. The Panthers were the best team in the regular season, but have struggled to put together consistent play in the playoffs. Tampa Bay continues to prove why they are still the favorites as defending champs. If either team can come out fast in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Florida Panthers +1 ½ (-235) +105 Over 6 (-120)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 ½ (+195) -125 Under 6 (+100)


Team Data Florida Panthers Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Record 4-5 7-3
Playoff Away/ Home Record 2-2 3-1
Playoff GF/GP 2.56 3.40
Playoff GF/GP Away/ Home 2.25 4.50
Playoff SV% .894 .916
Playoff SV% Away/ Home .867 .907

Betting Trends

Florida Panthers

  • 7-7 when playing on back to back days
  • 19-10 against divisional opponents
  • 19-9 after a divisional game
  • 2-2 when trailing in series
  • 22-10 after allowing four or more goals
  • 10-7 after a loss by two goals or more
  • 4-2 after scoring one goal or less
  • 27-17 against team with a winning record

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 10-2 when playing on back to back days
  • 22-14 against divisional opponents
  • 24-11 after a divisional game
  • 2-0 when leading in series
  • 19-5 after a win by two or more goals
  • 24-18 after scoring four goals or more
  • 10-9 after three or more straight wins
  • 27-24 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up in a tight three games so far. Nikita Kucherov and Corey Perry both had a goal and an assist in Game 1 to help Tampa Bay earn a 4-1 win. Perry had another goal in Game 2, while Ross Colton scored the game winner with two seconds left as the Lightning won 2-1. Kucherov had a goal and three assists in the third game, while Steven Stamkos scored twice as Tampa Bay won 5-1.

Special Teams

The Panthers have struggled on special teams in the playoffs. Florida has scored on 1 of their 28 power play chances, which is a 3.6 percent power play. The Panthers have killed off 22 of their opponents 33 power play attempts, which is a 66.7 percent kill rate. Florida is 8th on the power play and kill in the remaining field of 8 teams.

Tampa Bay has been strong on special teams in the postseason. The Lightning have capitalized on 11 of their 44 power play opportunities, which is a 25 percent success rate. Tampa Bay has given up 4 power play goals on 35 penalties against, which is an 88.6 percent penalty kill. The Lightning are 5th on the man advantage and 2nd on the penalty kill.

The Lightning have the edge on special teams so far this series. Florida was able to score their first power play goal of the postseason in Game 3 and will look to build on it in this one. The Panthers need their penalty kill to step up as well though. If either team can get a power play goal in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Goaltending Comparison

Sergei Bobrovsky will get the start in the crease for Florida in this one. Bobrovsky has started in all 9 games in the playoffs, going 4-5 in his starts. He has posted a .906 save percentage and a GAA of 2.88 in those games played. Bobrovsky stopped 31 of 34 shots in the losing effort of Game 3. He will look to bounce back in this one.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely get the nod between the pipes for the Lightning on Monday night. Vasilevskiy has earned a record of 7-3 throughout his 10 starts in the playoffs. He has put up a save percentage of .922 and a GAA of 2.44 in those games. Vasilevskiy finished with 34 saves on 35 shots in Game 3’s win.

These two goalies have been solid throughout this series. Vasilevskiy has been on a mission as of late, allowing only goal per game in his last four starts. Bobrovsky has been strong in the playoffs, but has not gotten a lot of offensive support. If either goalie can come out quickly in this one, it could be enough to lead their team to the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams were strong throughout the regular season and will look for a big win in this one. The Panthers have fallen down 3-0 in this series, but will look to fight back one game at a time. Tampa Bay has held Florida to a single goal in all three games, but I think the Panthers offense can break through in this one. Florida will make changes in this one as they fight with their season on the line.

Bovada has Tampa Bay listed as a -125 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Lightning will win this game around 55.6 percent of the time. I think that this line is accurate with Tampa Bay dominating this series so far. I do not think Florida will get swept though. The Panthers are due for a win and I think they can get it on the second half of this back to back.

The Bet
Florida Panthers
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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