I made a trio of free NHL picks last night and the end result was not pretty in an 0 for 3 night that can happen following a hot streak.
I had the New York Islanders to go into Madison Square Garden and win on the moneyline as -125 favorites, however that wasn’t the case as the Rangers showed up to play and blasted their rival by a 6-2 count.
I also had the Calgary Flames to stay red-hot and extend their win streak to six over the ice-cold Habs at nice -102 odds. However, while the Habs scored just twice, the Flames didn’t score at all in a 2-0 loss.
Finally, I suffered an identical outcome in my pick of the Hurricanes on the moneyline as road dogs in Washington. The ‘Canes held the Caps to just two goals, but the Hurricanes failed to score any of their own in another 2-0 loss.
All told, the evening cost me 3.27 units as I turn my attention to tonight’s big 11-game NHL schedule!
Season Record: 75-63-1
Now let’s take a look at this free NHL pick featuring the Predators vs. Oilers from Edmonton!
Predators vs. Oilers Betting Odds
- Predators (-125)
- Oilers (+113)
- Predators -1.5 (+210)
- Oilers +1.5 (-250)
- Over 6.5 (+104)
- Under 6.5 (-115)
Predators vs. Oilers NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s take a look at each of these clubs before getting into my final pick!
It’s been three games since the Predators made a coaching change and while the first game didn’t go well in a 6-2 home loss to the Bruins, the Predators have since rattled off back-to-back wins over the Blackhawks and Jets.
The latter two wins came on the road as the Preds wrap up a three-game trip tonight in Edmonton.
It was desperation time to make a move for a Predators team that was finding ways to score on offense, but struggling on the back end.
In fact, the Predators enter this one as the NHL’s second-ranked road offense where they’ve scored 3.59 goals per game this season. Their power play is also much improved over last season with their 20.8% clip on the road ranking 10th league wide.
Defense has been an issue for a team that is known for their stingy ways on the back end.
Their road defense hasn’t been the worst in the league, but they’re still allowing 3.23 goals per game on the road, good for 17th league wide.
Their biggest issue on the road has been their penalty kill, however, that sits at just 69.2% on the season – a mark that puts them 30th in the league.
The Predators have yet to announce a starter for this one tonight, so we can’t base our pick much on the Preds’ goaltending situation as a result,
If Pekka Rinne gets the nod, he’ll bring a 3.02 GAA and .895 Sv% into action, but also an improved 2.64 GAA and .915 Sv% across 10 road starts and 11 road appearances.
If it’s Juuse Saros, he’d be coming in off a shutout of the Jets on Sunday. Saros owns a 3.09 GAA and .897 Sv% on the season, but also a 3.35 GAA and .897 Sv% in 12 road starts and 13 road appearances.
If I were to guess, I’d say the nod goes to Rinne considering his work on the road this season, however Saros can’t be ruled out coming off that shutout performance.
The Oilers rolled into Calgary on Saturday having won three in a row and four of five, however they took a tough 4-3 loss in a heated affair against their arch rival.
Now, they gets back home after a 3-1-1 road trip to face a Predators team that’s won two in a row.
Home ice hasn’t been overly favorable for the Oilers, however, as they’re just 10-8-3 at home compared to their 14-10-2 mark on the road.
For the most part, it’s been their home defense that’s cost them.
It’s a little baffling as the Oilers still rank among the best penalty kills in the league, their PK plummets at home to the tune of a 74.5% mark, good for 29th in the league
That’s not good news against the NHL’s second-ranked road offense and 10th-ranked road power play.
Offense and the other half of their special teams have been good at home, however.
Their offense checks in at 15h with a solid 3.19 goals per game at Rogers Place this season, however their power play has dominated to the tune of a 31% clip at home, good for second in the NHL behind only the Lightning and their ridiculous 36.6% mark.
Getting the nod for the home side tonight will be Mike Smith who was a big reason why the Oilers enjoyed such a successful road trip before Mikko Koskinen took the loss in Calgary on Saturday.
Smith owns a 3.01 GAA and .900 Sv% on the season, but his home/road spits are complete reversed as he has been torched to the tune of a 3.66 GAA and .874 Sv% at home compared to a 2.61 GAA and .914 Sv% on the road.
Smith has received quality goal support at home and has managed a 3-4-1 record despite those extremely poor numbers on home ice.
Smith has one each of his last three starts entering this one and owns a .936 Sv% in that time.
To me, this one is easy.
Of course, the pick could still go either way, but I mean that making this pick was a rather easy decision when we look at the numbers.
We have the NHL’s second-ranked road offense going up against the NHL’s worst home defense.
We have the NHL’s 10th-ranked power play going up against the NHL’s 29th-ranked penalty kill.
On the flip side, we have a solid home offense up against a so-so road defense, but more importantly a second-ranked home power play up against a 30th-ranked road penalty kill. That penalty kill has gone just 58.3% over their last seven.
The Oilers have averaged 4.33 goals per game over their last six and the Predators have seen the total go over in three of their last four, six of their last eight and seven of their last 10.
To me, I can see a lot of goals being scored tonight between a couple of capable offenses and power plays against some weak defenses and penalty kills.
As a result, I’ll take the over 6.5 tonight at nice odds from Edmonton.