Another night in the NHL and more profits from my free NHL picks as the hot streak continued last night.
I went 2 for 3 last night and hit a big winner with the Panthers upsetting the Bruins 5-4 in overtime at +144 odds. I'll admit I was fortunate in this one as the Bruins led 4-0 after two periods and inexplicably gave up four goals in the third and the eventual OT winner – something that happens about once every five seasons for a team. However, we're allowed to be fortunate because this betting game deals plenty of unfortunate happenings as well.
For instance, my under six between the Red Wings and Ducks was looking excellent into the final minute of the game last night, however a Dylan Larkin goal with 37 seconds left in regulation tied the game at three and put the total over six as a result. This game actually sat with no score after the first period, so it looked good twice before finishing with a loss. Tough one and it was my first loss in some time.
However, the final pick of the night got us right back on the right track as the Wild and Kings played to a low-scoring 3-1 game – won by the Kings – and the total stayed under six as a result.
I'll take the profit and move onto tonight's five-game NHL schedule.
Season Record: 20-10
Now let’s take a look at my lone free NHL pick on the night featuring the Senators vs. Devils from the Prudential Center in Newark!
Senators vs. Devils Betting Odds
- Senators (+157)
- Devils (-174)
- Over 6.5 (+104)
- Under 6.5 (-115)
Senators vs. Devils NHL Pick Breakdown
Now let’s have a look at each of these clubs before getting into the final pick!
The Senators began their road trip riding high after two straight wins and three wins in their last four. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they gave up five goals to the Hurricanes on Monday before getting one themselves. The end result was an 8-2 blasting in Raleigh and they’ll be looking to turn things around in this one tonight.
The Senators are 1-6-1 on the road this season, and it’s not hard to see why. For one, they rank 30th with 4.13 goals against per game on the road and their 2.38 goals for per game on the road isn’t good enough to combat that. However, the problem runs deeper than just the raw surface numbers.
For instance, the Sens enter this one sporting a horrific 42.02% Corsi For% at 5v5 play on the road this season. That number is only better than the 41.63% mark the Islanders have put forth this season. Ottawa is being outshot by an average of 8.4 shots per game on the road, the fourth-worst number in the league. Even during their winning stretch last week the Senators were being outplayed. In the first half of their home-and-home set with the Hurricanes, the ‘Canes outshot Ottawa 39-30 but lost 4-1. For good measure, Carolina outshot them 43-29 in the rematch. The Senators have been outshot in seven of their last 10 games and were even in one of those games. They have been outshot in four of their last five on the road and were even in the other one.
The Sens got some wins with a scorching-hot Anders Nilsson in goal, but Nilsson was lit up in Carolina on Monday. If he starts tonight, he’ll still bring an unsustainably high .933 Sv% on the road into action. If Craig Anderson gets the nod, he’ll bring a 3.49 GAA and .891 S% into action to go along with a 4.99 GAA and .859 Sv% in five road outings into action. Normally I’d say those road numbers are due to positively regress, but the Senators are just being schooled on the road as a whole, so I’m not sure we should expect a ton of positive regression until the team plays better in front of him.
The Devils return home from a five-game road trip that was largely a success. The Devils won three of those five games and return home tonight where they have actually lost just twice in regulation in eight games this season, but also four times in shootout or overtime.
Although the road trip was a success, the Devils are still struggling to score away from home. Their 1.50 goals per game on the road is the worst number in the NHL. However, at home, they are averaging a real healthy 3.63 goals per game on the season – 12th-best mark in the NHL. Tje problem, however, has been the 3.75 goals per game they’ve surrendered at home, good for the worst number in the league.
Of course, it’s tough to win at home when you are receiving an .859 Sv% from your goaltenders – also good for worst mark in the league. The good news is that the Devils are finally getting some goaltending in the form of Mackenzie Blackwood.
Blackwood has separated himself from Cory Schneider to snatch the No.1 role in the crease, and rightfully so. After a tough October in which he posted an .871 Sv%, Blackwood has posted a .919 Sv% in five November outings and has allowed just one goal in two of his last three starts.
The 2.93 GAA and .896 Sv% he owns on the season still don’t look great, but he’s actually posted a 2.54 GAA at home this season. This is the same Mackenzie Blackwood that managed a real solid 2.61 GAA and .918 Sv% in 23 appearances last season despite playing behind one of the NHL’s worst teams and worst defensive teams. Needless to say, the 22-year-old is riding plenty of confidence into this one tonight.
The Senators are perhaps the most untrustworthy road team in the NHL at the moment. They appear to deserve every bit of that 1-6-1 road mark and despite needing to bounce back after that disastrous outing on Monday, I don’t think it gets done tonight.
The Devils are just 5-7-4 on the season and sit second-last in the east, just one point ahead of the Senators. However, their slow start was in large part due to the absence of a reliable netminder, and their recent road trip showed they can win when getting some goaltending.
I’m not looking at the moneyline or the puckline in this one, but rather the three-way bet of the Devils to win in regulation at -125. I’d probably want some better odds, but I do indeed believe that the Devils absolutely should and will win this game tonight. Although half of their home games have went past regulation, I’ll look for them to carry momentum from the road to the Prudential Center and win this one in regulation tonight.