Senators vs. Kings NHL Pick – March 11, 2020

Chalk up another profitable night with my free NHL picks last night as the white-hot streak continued for at least another day.

That said, I’ll start with my lone loss of the night between the Lightning and Maple Leafs where I had Tampa Bay on the moneyline at -104.

The Maple Leafs scored first and last in this one, and that was good enough in this low-scoring affair that resulted in a 2-1 Maple Leafs final.

That said, it was all profits from there on out.

I also had the Predators on the moneyline at -105 to take care of the Canadiens on the road in Montreal.

This one essentially looked great for the overwhelming majority of the game as the Predators built a 4-0 lead heading into the third period. While the Canadiens scored the lone two goals of the third, our pick was never really in danger as the Preds won this one by a 4-2 score.

Finally, I had the Canucks on the moneyline at -120 to take care of the struggling Islanders in Vancouver.

This one was certainly a back-and-forth affair and defense was optional in this one. That said, a 4-4 game went into overtime and eventually the shootout where the Canucks prevailed in a 5-4 shootout win.

All told, another 2-1 night netted us 0.96 units in profit as we are officially at a season-high in units won!

Now, let’s keep rolling as part of tonight’s five-game NHL schedule!

Season Record: 114-95-1

Units: +17.89

Now let’s dive into this free NHL pick featuring the Senators vs. Kings from Los Angeles!

Senators vs. Kings Betting Odds

  • Senators (+145)
  • Kings (-165)
  • Senators +1.5 (-175)
  • Kings -1.5 (+155)
  • Over 6 (+100)
  • Under 6 (-120)

Senators vs. Kings NHL Pick Breakdown

Now let’s check in with each of these clubs before I get into my final pick!

Senators

The Sens will play their second game in as many nights tonight, but they’ll certainly look for improved results after taking a 5-2 thumping last night at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks.

That said, I’d venture that they deserved a better fate as they pummelled the Ducks with rubber and allowed next to nothing at the other end as they outshot Anaheim by a whopping 42-15 count. In the end, going 0 for 2 on the penalty kill and 0 for 5 on the power play hurt them big-time.

The loss snapped a modest two-game win streak for the Sens, but they’ll still enter this one having won four of their last six games.

While they didn’t get any goaltending last night, this team has been no good defensively on the road all season long.

In fact, only the league-worst Detroit Red Wings have allowed more than the 3.73 goals per game the Sens have allowed on the road while their horrid road penalty kill continued last night as part of their 72.4% mark in that department on the road, good for 29th in the league.

Bad road defense is one thing, but when you can’t score at the other end, you get the 7-20-6 record Ottawa sports on the road.

Again, they’re ahead of only the Red Wings with their 2.27 goals per game on the road while their 0 for 5 night on the power play last night pushed them into dead last with an 11.8% clip on the power play away from home.

Despite the awful record on the road, the Senators have actually improved as the season’s gone along in terms of their possession metrics on the road, although they’re not to be mistaken for quality numbers, either.

At 5v5 on the road, the Senators rank 19th with a 47.77% Corsi For%, also 19th with a 47.32% Scoring Chances For% and 17th with a 47.90% High-Danger Chances For%. Not good numbers, but actually much better than their near league-worst road figures from earlier in the year.

Given the back-to-back on hand, Senators head coach left Marcus Hogberg in to get shelled for the five goals on 15 shots, meaning he was saving Craig Anderson for this one tonight.

Anderson will enter this one sporting a 3.26 GAA and .901 Sv% on the season in his 30 starts and 33 appearances, but his work hasn’t been great on the road where he owns a 3.59 GAA and .889 Sv% on the season.

He did hold a low-scoring Sharks offense to just one goal on 32 shots his last time out, but also was pounded for seven goals in Pittsburgh in his previous start on the road.

Tough to know what version of Anderson will show up tonight.

Kings

Don’t look now but the Los Angeles Kings have won six games in a row and have taken out some stiff competition in the process.

For instance, their most recent win was a 3-1 victory over the Colorado Avalanche while they’ve also beaten the Penguins, Golden Knights and Maple Leafs during this stretch.

Their win over Colorado was over a banged-up version of the Avalanche, but they did outshoot them 35-22 in that one and certainly deserved that victory.

The Kings have scored plenty of goals of late with an average of 3.75 goals per game over their last four, but they remain a low-scoring offense on the whole.

The Kings will enter this one tied for 26th with 2.73 goals per game on home ice where their 16.2% clip on the power play ranks 26th.

One area where they’ve excelled on the road, however, is defensively which is a stark contrast to their work on the road.

At home, the Kings rank seventh with 2.58 goals against per game, although their home penalty kill has struggled to a 25th-ranked 78.7% mark.

That penalty kill has performed well of late, however, going 14 for 15 (93.3%) over their last six games while their defense has allowed a total of four goals over their last three games – all at home – with one goal or less in two of the three.

While it hasn’t translated to a ton of success, the Kings sport some quality possession numbers at home.

At 5v5 at home, the Kings rank sixth with a 53.95% Corsi For%, 14th with a 51.95% Scoring Chances For% and 13th with a strong 53.31% High-Danger Chances For%.

Los Angeles has also received some quality goaltending on the road as they rank eighth with a .927 Sv% at 5v5 at home and it will be up to rookie Cal Petersen to keep up the strong work tonight.

The heir to Jonathan Quick’s throne in the Kings’ crease, Petersen has posted a 2.73 GAA and .922 Sv% in his seven starts at the NHL level this season.

He’s added an improved 2.52 GAA and .924 Sv% on the road across four starts.

He wasn’t great at the AHL level prior to his promotion as he posted a 3.43 GAA and .906 Sv% with the Ontario Reign, however he’s certainly been up to the task at the NHL level since getting the nod.

Final Pick

No one would have pegged the Kings to be the NHL’s hottest team at any point this season, but that’s indeed as their six-game win streak is the best mark in the NHL at the moment.

They’re still sitting in last place in the west, but there’s no doubt they are on fire right now and they’re not giving up much defensively at the moment, which to me is the key to their victory tonight.

It’s really been a tale of two seasons defensively for the Kings. While they’re seventh with 2.58 goals against per game at home, they’re also 25th with 3.39 goals per game on the road.

I also like how their penalty kill has been red-hot and should be able to hold off the NHL’s worst road power play in this one.

Add in the Senators on a back-to-back and I think the Kings cruise to victory tonight, and I’m going to take a bit of risk here and lay some juice on the moneyline.

The Bet
KINGS
-165
Brenton Kemp / Author

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who resides in Ontario, Canada. Brenton is a fan of most all sports but specializes in hockey, baseball, football, basketball, and golf. He’s a fierce researcher with a strong appetite to deliver accurate and relevant facts that in turn have led to past success with picks and DFS advice across the board. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved.