Sharks vs. Golden Knights NHL Pick – March 1, 2022

We have a hearty nine-game NHL schedule going down on this Tuesday evening with notable value on the board.

Let’s snatch up some of that value with a Sharks vs. Golden Knights NHL Pick from Sin City!

Sharks vs. Golden Knights Betting Odds

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Teams Moneyline Puck Line Total
Sharks +208 +1.5 (-125) Over 6 (+118)
Golden Knights –233 -1.5 (+105) Under 6 (-130)

Offense and Defense

Sharks

After a brutal stretch in which they dropped seven in a row, the Sharks have managed to win two of their last three despite their offense not quite hitting high gear.

They’ve scored eight goals over those three contests, moving them up slightly to 24th with 2.64 goals per game on the season, a number that trends up a little bit to 2.80 goals per game on the road, good for 20th league wide.

The underlying metrics are more favorable. The Sharks actually sit ninth in terms of high-danger chances for/60 despite falling to 18th in expected goals for/60 at 5v5, as per Natural Stat Trick. Their 2.10 goals/60 at 5v5 are below their 2.39 expected mark, but you wonder how much those figures can narrow this deep into the season.

As for the defense, the club enters this one sitting 20th overall with 3.08 goals against per game on the season, but move up to eighth on the road where they have yielded just 2.88 goals against per game. Both their offense and defense have been superior away from home.

The underlying data isn’t all that great despite a notable improvement from a season ago. They sit 17th in high-danger chances against/60 and 20th in expected goals against/60 with their 2.70 goals against/60 sitting more or less in line with their 2.56 expected mark.

After yielding an average of 3.71 goals per game during the aforementioned seven-game losing streak, the club has allowed just seven goals against over their last three contests.

Golden Knights

The Golden Knights have been an injury-riddled group to their big boys up front for much of the season and that remains the case for this one tonight.

The club sits 12th with 3.17 goals per game on the season and tied for 11th with a similar 3.21 mark on home ice, but they’ll be without two of their top three offensive players in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, both of whom have been in and out of the lineup all season long. Stone could remain out until the postseason while Pacioretty “isn’t close to returning” as per head coach Peter DeBoer.

Despite the ailments, the club still sits seventh in high-danger chances for/60 and sixth in expected goals for/60 at 5v5, so they’ve certainly generated some opportunities at the offensive end of the ice.

As for the back end, it’s largely been a struggle.

The Knights sit 16th with 2.92 goals against per game on the season and 19th in home defense with 3.03 goals against per game at home. Not horrendous figures, but keep in mind this team ranked first in overall defense a season ago.

The underlying metrics perhaps tell it best as they sit 26th in high-danger chances against/60 and 19th in expected goals against/60 at 5v5 on the campaign. Their 2.44 goals against/60 is just a little under their 2.52 expected mark, so it appears they’ve been deserving of their even-strength defensive fate.

The club has dropped two in a row while being outscored 6-3 by the Coyotes and Avalanche.

Goaltending Notes

Sharks

Confirmed between the pipes for the road side tonight is veteran James Reimer who will make his 34 appearance and 33rd start of the season tonight.

Reimer has been quite reliable this season, turning in a 2.84 GAA and .916 Sv% in those 33 appearances. That said, his 7.08 goals saved above average (GSAA) sits 14th among 71 qualified netminders, as per Hockey Reference, as perhaps better context of just how solid he’s been for an improved Sharks back end.

He’s actually been a little better on the road where he owns a 2.71 GAA and .920 Sv% in 15 games compared to a 2.94 GAA and .913 Sv% across 18 home outings.

Reimer turned aside 39 of 40 shots in a win over the Seattle Kraken his last time out.

Golden Knights

There’s no confirmation, but it appears that Robin Lehner gets the starting nod for the home side tonight.

If so, it would make his first appearance since Feb. 9 when he allowed six goals in a loss to the Flames in Calgary. Lehner has missed the last three weeks with an upper-body issue.

It hasn’t been a banner year for the veteran and former Vezina nominee (2019) as he owns a 2.86 GAA and .907 Sv% across 34 games with a -2.38 GSAA that sits 41st of those 71 qualified netminders. Lehner’s numbers have trended worse at home where he’s turned in a 2.93 GAA and .902 Sv% across 19 games while posting a superior 2.78 GAA and .912 Sv% across 15 road contests.

Special Teams

Sharks

The Sharks haven’t been exceptional on the power play, but rather posting a decent clip while being very efficient in killing penalties.

Overall, the Sharks sit 19th on the power play at 19.7% for the season, a number that more or less travels with the on the road where they sit 16th with an even 19% mark on the campaign.

That power play has gone 3 for 10 over its last three games, but also a healthy 9 for 32 (28.1%) over its last 10 games.

The penalty kill has been a major strength for the club. The Sharks sit second in the NHL with an 86.1% mark on the season, and like the power play it’s travel extremely well in posting an 85.7% mark on the road which represents the league’s third-ranked road PK.

It’s a group that’s also dominating at the moment. The Sharks are a clean 22 for 22 over their last seven games on the kill and have allowed just one power-play goal over their last 10.

Despite losing eight of 10, the team’s special teams have been very, very good of late.

Golden Knights

After a historically poor start to the season on the power play, the Golden Knights got things turned around but haven’t been any good once again in that area.

For the season, they sit 21st with an 18.5% clip while ranking 21st once again with a near-identical 18.8% figure on home ice. That power play has scuffled in a big way of late, however, in not only going 0 for 7 over its last three but just 1 for 22 (4.5%) over its last seven.

Vegas’ penalty kill has at least been palatable. They sit 19th with a 79.8% mark overall for the season and 14th with an 80.1% mark on home ice. There certainly doesn’t appear to be any difference in special teams production at home or on the road for this Vegas club, much like the Sharks.

They’re 7 for 7 on the kill over their last three, but went just 5 for 8 over their previous three games. Still, they’ve allowed just three power play goals over their last 10, going 21 for 24 (87.5%) in that time.

Betting Trends

Sharks

Sharks are 0-4 in their last four road games
Sharks are 0-4 in their last four following a win
Under is 6-2 in the Sharks’ last eight road games
Under is 13-6 in the Sharks’ last 19 overall

Golden Knights

Golden Knights are 2-6 in their last eight home games
Golden Knights are 1-5 in their last six vs. the Western Conference
Under is 5-1-1 in the Golden Knights’ last seven overall
Under is 7-1-1 in the Golden Knights’ last nine vs. the Western Conference

Head to Head

Golden Knights are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings
Golden Knights are 4-0 in the last four meetings in Vegas
Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings
Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Vegas

Sharks vs. Golden Knights NHL Pick

While the Under certainly has its appeal in this one not only from the plethora of trends leaning that way, I’m not sure there’s as much value there as there is in the Sharks +1.5 on the moneyline.

I just don’t believe Vegas deserves to be such a heavy favorite, even at home. They aren’t exactly a force at T-Mobile Arena this season in going 14-12-3 at home while the Sharks are a similar 11-11-3 on the road. San Jose plays about the same hockey both at home and on the road.

Their white-hot PK should be able to keep the Golden Knights’ cold power play in check, and Reimer has been the better goaltending than Lehner, the latter of whom hasn’t seen game action in three weeks. Reimer is coming off one of his better outings of the season to boot.

The Sharks have some injuries themselves, but we saw how badly Vegas scuffled early in the season without Stone and Pacioretty, taking two serious offensive weapons out of the lineup. I don’t trust their ability to score enough to win this one.

I don’t mind the Under, but my play is the Sharks +1.5 on the puck line to either keep this a one-goal affair or pull off the outright upset.

The Bet
SHARKS +1.5
-125
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Brenton Kemp / Author

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who resides in Ontario, Canada. Brenton is a fan of most all sports but specializes in hockey, baseball, football, basketball, and golf. He’s a fierce researcher with a strong appetite to deliver accurate and relevant facts that in turn have led to past success with picks and DFS advice across the board. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved.

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