Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets NHL Pick – March 4

The NHL is set up with another solid slate of games on Friday night. Seven games are up on the board throughout March 4. One of these games will be between the Dallas Stars and the Winnipeg Jets. These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a big win in this one. This game will drop the puck at around 8:00 PM Eastern time.

Dallas has earned a record of 30-20-3 throughout this season, which has them sitting in fifth place of the Central division. The Stars are one point out of the fourth spot in the division and fighting for a playoff spot. Dallas has won two games in a row and five of their last seven. The Stars will look to come out fast on the road in this one.

The Jets have put up a record of 24-21-9 so far this season, which has them in sixth place of the Central division. Winnipeg has won two games in a row, but has lost four of their last six. The Jets are six points out of a playoff spot and will look to get going quickly in this one. Winnipeg will look to get going quickly at home as they try to make a push.

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a big two points in the playoff race. The Stars have been the better team and are sitting in a playoff spot for now. Winnipeg has struggled a bit as of late. If either team can come out quickly in this one though, it could be enough for the win on Friday night.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Dallas Stars -1 ½ (+220) -101 Over 5 ½ (-125)
Winnipeg Jets +1 ½ (-260) -109 Under 5 ½ (+113)

 

Team Data Dallas Stars Winnipeg Jets
Overall Record 30-20-3 24-21-9
Away/ Home Record 10-13-2 14-10-1
Goals Per Game 2.87 3.00
Goals Per Game Away/ Home 2.24 3.44
Save Percentage .906 .907
Save Percentage Away/ Home .905 .908

Betting Trends

Dallas Stars

  • 1-0 in March
  • 5-4 on Friday nights
  • 11-9 against divisional opponents
  • 12-8 after scoring four or more goals
  • 14-6 against team with a losing record

Winnipeg Jets

  • 1-0 in March
  • 2-6 on Friday nights
  • 4-7 when playing on two days rest
  • 10-10 against divisional opponents
  • 4-10 after non-Conference game
  • 11-8 after allowing four goals or more
  • 7-11 after a win by two or more goals
  • 11-19 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up three times already this season. Nate Schmidt had two assists in the first meeting to help lead Winnipeg to a 4-3 win in a shootout. Jamie Benn had a goal and an assist in the second matchup as the Stars grabbed a 4-3 win in overtime. Benn had a goal and two assists in the third game, while Tyler Seguin had the overtime winner and an assist. Dallas won 3-2 in overtime.

Special Teams

The Stars have been strong on the power play throughout this season. Dallas has scored on 38 of their 163 power play chances, which is a 23.3 percent success rate. The Stars have killed off 118 of their opponents 151 power play attempts, which is a 78.2 percent penalty kill. Dallas is 9th on the power play and 19th on the kill this season.

Winnipeg has also been solid on the power play so far this season. The Jets have capitalized on 38 of their 170 power play opportunities, which is a 22.4 percent power play. Winnipeg has given up 37 power play goals on 160 penalties against, which is a 76.9 percent kill rate. The Jets are 12th on the man advantage and 23rd on the penalty kill.

These two teams have put up strong power play numbers this season. Dallas has been slightly better on the power play and penalty kill entering this one though. The Jets will look for their special teams to step up early in this one. If either team can get a power play goal in this one, it could be enough for the win on Friday night.

Goaltending Comparison

I expect Jake Oettinger to get the start in the crease for Dallas in this one. Oettinger has started in 25 games this season, going 18-6-1 in those matchups. He has posted a .922 save percentage and a GAA of 2.28 in those outings. Oettinger’s last start was against the Los Angeles Kings. He stopped 28 of 31 shots in route to the win.

Connor Hellebuyck will likely get the nod in between the pipes for the Jets on Friday night. Hellebuyck has earned a record of 18-19-8 throughout his 45 starts on the season. He has put up a save percentage of .912 and a 2.90 GAA in his starts. Hellebuyck finished with 31 saves on 35 shots in his last start against the Montreal Canadiens, which was enough for the win.

These two goalies have been strong as of late and will look to earn a big win in this one. Oettinger has won two in a row and three of his last four starts. Hellebuyck is coming off a win, which ended a four game losing streak. If either goalie can come out fast on Friday night, it could be enough to lead their team to the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams are competing for wild card spots in the Western Conference, which should lead to an exciting game on Friday. Dallas leads the season series 2-1, with all three games needing overtime or a shootout to be decided. The home team has won the first three, but I think the Stars can win this one on the road. If Dallas can come out fast, I think they can knock off the struggling Jets.

BetOnline has Winnipeg listed as a -109 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Jets will win this game around 52.2 percent of the time. I think that this line should be in favor of Dallas with the Stars being the stronger team as of late. Dallas will look to step up early on the road in this one. As underdogs on Friday night, I like the value on the Stars.

The Bet
Dallas Stars
-101
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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