Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Arizona Coyotes NHL Pick – March 10

Two red-hot offensive teams will battle Thursday evening in Toronto as the Arizona Coyotes head north to take on the Maple Leafs.

The Coyotes are coming off a stellar 9-2 victory and have actually managed to score 17 goals in their past two games. Though it’s been another lost season for the Desert Dogs, they still have some young, exciting pieces and this is a squad that is keen to perhaps play spoiler down the stretch. They have already beaten the powerful Leafs once before this season, and will be seeking the season sweep on Thursday.

Toronto too are playing 1980’s style hockey of late. They’re scoring in bunches, but also conceding far too often. Neither goalie Petr Mrazek or Jack Campbell has been steady between the pipes of late, and that’s magnifying Toronto’s defensive issues. This is a group that has had question marks about their play away from the puck before, and this recent blip is doing nothing to calm the doubtful voices in Leafs Nation.

Continue reading on beneath the posted odds for the latest news, trends, and betting analysis, as we break down this Toronto/Arizona showdown. It’s been a red-hot stretch for us of late on the ice, and we’ll look to keep this rolling on Thursday evening.

Arizona Coyotes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by


  • Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (+150)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (-165)

  • Arizona Coyotes (+350)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (-420)
Total Points:

  • Over 6.5 (-125)
  • Under 6.5 (+105)
Overall Record 17-35-5 37-16-4
ATS Record 28-28 24-33
Home/Away Record 8-15-3 20-7-1
Goals Per Game 2.5 3.7
Goals Against Per Game 3.6 3.0
Shots On Goal Per Game 26.1 34.7
Shooting % 9.2 9.8

Arizona Coyotes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction:

While it has been a down year in Arizona, they’re suddenly playing their best hockey of the season. The ‘Yotes enter Thursday night seeking their fourth victory in a row, and with how mediocre the Leafs have been of late, even at a big and juicy underdog price, Arizona is somewhat intriguing.

Nick Schmaltz has paced the offense, racking up huge totals on Arizona’s top line. Along with Clayton Keller and former Leaf, Nick Ritchie – that trio has been giving defensive units fits over the past two weeks. Arizona hasn’t been steady defensively all season, but getting big defenceman Jacob Chycrun back into the mix has really helped. In goal, look for Karel Vejmelka to take on the role between the pipes. The big Czech netminder absolutely stoned Toronto’s high-octane attack when these squads last met.

Toronto has been playing loose hockey, and has been quite susceptible to down efforts of late. Though their top line trio of Matthews, Marner, and Bunting continues to fire on all cylinders – they aren’t receiving too much secondary scoring from the lower lines. Losing Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin has really hurt their defensive play, and with Mrazek and Campbell both struggling mightily – this Leafs’ team is again falling flat at the worst moment. Look for Campbell to again go for Toronto after his win on Tuesday night, and he should get a stiff test given the quality of offense right now in Arizona.

Coyotes vs. Maple Leafs Trends To Know:

  • Coyotes are 28-59 in their last 87 Thursday games.
  • Coyotes are 22-51 in their last 73 overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in Coyotes last 6 games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 5-1 in Coyotes last 6 road games.
  • Over is 7-1-1 in Maple Leafs last 9 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.


While I do think the ‘Yotes represent some sneaky value tonight for some pizza money, the sure-fire bet lies with the Over 6.5 goals.  Neither team thrives at defensive hockey, and both are simply putting the pucks in the net at will right now.  Toronto still can’t get a save, but have the talent to outscore their opponents and their mistakes on a nightly basis.  The Leafs also tend to frequently play down to lower opposition, and we might see another example of that come Thursday night.  Expect another shootout in Toronto.

My Pick
Over 6.5
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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