Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings NHL Pick – October 30

Two of hockey’s Original Six franchises face-off Saturday Night for a special edition of Hockey Night in Canada as the Leafs play host to the Red Wings. These divisional rivals didn’t play last season due to the all-Canadian division, and it’ll be fun to once again see these storied jerseys share the same sheet of ice.

The Leafs had a rough start in a must-win spot in Chicago on Wednesday evening, but bounced back nicely in the second half of the game and eventually won in overtime off of a pretty finish from winger William Nylander. Tonight, the Leafs will look to take advantage of a weary Red Wings team who played just last night. Petr Mrazek is expected to be able to return from a small injury to take on the team he began his career with.

For Detroit, this young core has to be considered as one of the early season surprises thus far. Entering tonight, the Wings boast a solid 4-2-2 record and firmly sit in a playoff position. Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond have clicked with instant chemistry on their first line, though they will be without top scorer Tyler Bertuzzi in Toronto, as he remains unvaccinated.

With the Leafs still lagging behind expectations, Toronto can’t continually fall in traps and make wins harder than they need to be. Despite the big odds, there is value to be had in this Hockey Night in Canada showdown, and we look forward to helping you find a winner. For added insight, betting news, trends and analysis – keep on reading beneath the current odds as we look to improve our stellar hockey record with another winning wager. Enjoy the Wings vs. Leafs, folks!

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by


  • Detroit Red Wings +1.5 (+100)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)

  • Detroit Red Wings (+225)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (-275)
Total Points:

  • Over 6 (-110)
  • Under 6 (-110)
Overall Record 4-2-2 3-4-1
ATS Record 4-4-0 3-5-0
Home/Away Record 2-1-0 2-2-0
Goals Per Game 3.1 2.0
Goals Against Per Game 3.3 3.1
Shots On Goal Per Game 30.2 34.4
Shooting % 10.5 5.8

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings Prediction

While it has been quite the slow start to the season for the high-octane Leafs, their luck is bound to reverse sooner opposed to later. Against the road-weary Red Wings, look for that to come tonight at home.

The Leafs are generating all kinds of high quality chances, and lead the NHL in chances from the slot. Yet even with sustained pressure, their shooting percentage lags behind, as well as their overall goals. With all of their high-end skill and talent, that’s bound to regress, and expect that to occur tonight vs. Detroit.

Sheldon Keefe will effectively utilize last change to ensure his top tandems get out against Detroit’s weaker defensive pairings. The Wings remain a young group, and they lack depth. The speed and high-end skill of the Leafs should really wear down Detroit.

Thomas Greiss is likely to feature for the Wings, and though he is off to another stellar start this campaign, expect the Leafs to control possession and tempo for all three periods. With Auston Matthews and William Nylander reunited and clicking, the Detroit blue-line is going to struggle containing that tandem.

The Leafs shook off some nerves with a win against Chicago, and with some necessary lineup changes and tweaks to their own defensive pairings, should be able to run Detroit out of their building on Saturday night. And though this young Wings’ squad possesses a ton of grit, expect the Leafs’ skill and talent to win out as Detroit inevitably fades.


Leafs vs. Red Wings Trends To Know:

  • Red Wings are 23-62 in their last 85 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Red Wings last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Red Wings are 14-38 in their last 52 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.
  • Red Wings are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.
  • Red Wings are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings.


Toronto has dominated this matchup of late, and should continue to be able to pounce on a back-to-back. This remains a highly skilled offensive juggernaut, and Toronto should have no issue generating against a young and untested Detroit roster.  Without Tyler Bertuzzi, the Wings’ offense should fade significantly, and the Leafs should comfortably get right in this spot.


My Pick
Leafs -1.5
All Tags:
nhl picks
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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