Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets - June 26, 2025

As we gear up for the showdown between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets at Citi Field, there’s plenty to dissect in terms of both teams’ performances and what we can expect from this pivotal matchup. With divisional bragging rights on the line, let’s dive into the numbers that could shape this game.

On the mound for the Braves is Grant Holmes, who has a 4-6 record with a 3.7 ERA this season. While his strikeout rate of approximately 9.0 K/9 is impressive, it hasn’t translated into consistent success given his win-loss record. The Braves have struggled recently, going 2-4 against the spread in their last six games and losing their last encounter against the Mets by a score of 7-3. Their recent performance indicates they are not firing on all cylinders; however, they’ve managed to put up solid offensive stats with an average of 4.2 runs per game and hitting .240 collectively.

The Mets counter with Griffin Canning, boasting a stronger win-loss record at 7-3 and a slightly better ERA of around 3.3. His ability to keep runners off base is evident in his strikeout rate as well—averaging about 8.7 K/9—which should pose challenges for Atlanta’s lineup that has shown some inconsistency lately.

When we look at team statistics, New York outperforms Atlanta marginally in several key areas: they average about 4.4 runs per game compared to Atlanta’s 4.2 and have slightly higher on-base slugging percentage (72% vs. Atlanta’s 69%). However, it’s worth noting that both teams struggle with batting averages hovering just under .240.

In their most recent face-off, where the Mets emerged victorious with a scoreline of 7-3, it was clear that they capitalized on opportunities while limiting errors—a crucial aspect when two competitive teams meet within their division.

Given these dynamics and trends leading up to Thursday’s clash, I predict that the Mets will take home another victory over the Braves tonight based on Canning’s superior form and overall pitching prowess compared to Holmes’. Furthermore, considering both offenses have been relatively stagnant recently—with Atlanta going UNDER in six out of its last eight games—the total for this matchup might also trend towards being UNDER despite oddsmakers opening it at eight runs.

In conclusion, expect a tightly contested game where pitching dominates early on but ultimately leads to another win for New York as they continue their push within an increasingly competitive division landscape while keeping scoring low through effective pitching strategies from Canning against an erratic Braves lineup.