Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins - May 19, 2025

As we gear up for tonight’s matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Miami Marlins, I can’t help but dive into the numbers that tell us what to expect on the field. The data suggests a strong likelihood of a Cubs victory, and I’m here to break down why.

Starting with the pitching matchup, we have Edward Cabrera on the mound for Miami. His win-loss record stands at 0-1 with an ERA hovering around 5.6. This indicates that he has been less than effective in limiting runs scored against him. With an average of about 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, he does have some ability to miss bats, but it’s clear that he’s been prone to giving up runs as evidenced by his inflated ERA.

On the other hand, Ben Brown takes the hill for Chicago with a record of 3-3 and a more respectable ERA of approximately 4.0. While his strikeout rate is comparable at around 7.9 per nine innings, it’s important to note that he has shown greater consistency in keeping runs off the board compared to Cabrera.

Now let’s turn our attention to how these teams fare offensively. The Cubs are scoring an impressive average of about 5.9 runs per game and racking up nearly 8.9 hits per contest—both figures significantly outpacing their opponents tonight in terms of offensive production. Their RBI count sits comfortably at around 5.8 per game, suggesting they not only get runners on base but also capitalize when it counts.

In contrast, while the Marlins put together about 4.2 runs and just over 8 hits each game, their batting average is slightly lower at .243 compared to Chicago’s .246—a negligible difference but one that reflects their overall struggles at times this season.

When analyzing on-base percentages (OBP), which is crucial for understanding how well teams can create scoring opportunities, we see another disparity: The Cubs boast an OBP slugging percentage near 75%, whereas Miami lags behind with roughly 68%. This further illustrates that while both teams can hit effectively at times, Chicago has shown a knack for getting on base more frequently and turning those chances into runs.

Given these stats—especially considering Cabrera’s struggles against a potent Cubs lineup—it seems reasonable to predict not only a win for Chicago but also a high-scoring affair as both offenses have demonstrated capabilities of putting up runs consistently throughout games this season.

With an Over/Under set high tonight, I would lean towards betting on “over” given both team’s propensity for hitting combined with Cabrera’s recent form as well as Brown’s potential vulnerabilities against left-handed hitters if they can exploit them effectively.

To sum it all up: Expect fireworks from Wrigley Field tonight as I foresee the Cubs taking home a solid victory over the Marlins in what should be an entertaining—and potentially high-scoring—contest!