Empoli FC @ AS Monaco - May 18, 2025

As a former sports statistician, I’ve learned to scrutinize the numbers to uncover underlying trends that often fly under the radar. This week, we cast our gaze towards a Serie A showdown between two teams desperately seeking a vital win: Monza and Empoli F.C. When these two face off on Sunday, it’s not just a game—it’s a battle for survival in the league.

Both teams find themselves towards the bottom of the table, with Empoli sitting in 18th place and Monza just above them in 20th. Empoli’s record stands at 5 wins, 13 draws, and 18 losses, while Monza has collected only 3 wins, 9 draws, and 24 losses. It’s a scenario rife with tension as both clubs know the stakes are high—every point is crucial in their bid to avoid relegation.

We have some interesting betting odds open for the matchup. The odds for a draw have opened at 2.20, signaling that the sportsbooks anticipate a potential stalemate between the two struggling teams. Meanwhile, Empoli started at 1.12, reflecting the bookmakers’ belief that they’ll have the upper hand in this encounter. Conversely, Monza comes in at 2.60, which shows they are not expected to fare well—though oddsmakers have been surprised before.

From recent performances, it’s clear both teams showed glimpses of potential in their last outings. Monza notched a much-needed win against Udinese Calcio, scoring three goals. This result was not only pivotal for confidence but also turned out to be a boon for totals bettors, as it pushed the game into “OVER” territory. Empoli followed suit with a similar victory against Parma F.C., also registering three goals. This trend towards higher-scoring matches is noteworthy, and we might see another round of goals in this upcoming fixture.

Recent data suggests that when teams are in similar standings, matches tend to be tense and closely fought. In the context of the Serie A, both squads have shown that they are capable of delivering unexpected upsets, which gives us a hint that the matchup might be more competitive than the table would suggest. The significant fact is that Monza is at home, which often gives teams a slight edge even in tight situations.

In terms of predictions, considering the current form and the numbers, one could lean towards a draw as a valid outcome. The defenses of both teams have shown vulnerabilities, meaning that goals are likely, but there’s enough parity between their playstyles that a tie feels plausible. Alternatively, if one team can impose its will early—particularly Monza at home who will be seeking to build on their last win—this match could swing in their favor. I suspect we are in for a tight contest that may very well end up being a 2-2 draw, with both teams capitalizing on defensive errors.

As we gear up for the match, keep an eye on the betting lines, player form, and potential for goals to spot valuable insights as they develop. This clash of lower-tier Serie A teams has all the makings of a must-watch scenario full of drama and high stakes, laying the groundwork for what should be an exciting encounter.