Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers - June 25, 2025

As an old-timer in this betting game, I know that familiarity can breed contempt, and there’s no better example than the upcoming clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. With these two teams so familiar with each other, expect some fireworks—and I’m not just talking about the 4th of July.

The Pirates are sending out Paul Skenes to the mound. Now, he’s got a 4-6 record with an ERA hovering just below 3.9. The numbers show he can get strikeouts—averaging about 7.4 per game—but consistency has been his Achilles’ heel this season. He’s had some decent outings, but then he’ll also give up those big hits when it matters most.

On the flip side, we have Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee, who comes into this matchup sporting a flawless 2-0 record and a solid ERA of around 3.9. He strikes out more batters than Skenes too—over 8 strikeouts per game—which should give him an edge tonight against a Pirates lineup that has struggled overall this season.

Let’s break down what we can expect from these squads tonight. The Brewers have been on fire lately; they’re averaging almost 4.6 runs per game with a respectable batting average of .238—not great by MLB standards but decent enough to capitalize on mistakes by opposing pitchers like Skenes. Their recent form is impressive: they’ve won five out of their last six games and are hitting well over .300 in those contests—which tells me they’re finding their rhythm right now.

Now let’s look at the Pirates’ offense—or lack thereof, really. They only muster about 3.3 runs per game with a batting average that barely scrapes .223. If Skenes can’t keep them in check and gives up early runs, it could quickly spiral out of control for Pittsburgh.

Despite being labeled as slight favorites at -128 to start off, I’m sensing value in backing Milwaukee here based on their current form and overall stats against Pittsburgh’s struggles this season. The moneyline odds reflect respect from oddsmakers towards Skenes’ potential but let’s be real; Milwaukee has consistently shown strength recently while Pittsburgh has faltered often.

And here’s where my betting superstitions kick in—I always sprinkle in a little luck charm before placing my bets (don’t ask how it works; it just does). So if you see me tossing salt over my shoulder or wearing my lucky cap tonight—you’ll know why!

The total for this game is set at 6.5, which feels low considering both offenses have shown they can score when push comes to shove—especially Milwaukee who is hitting over .300 lately and knows how to capitalize on weak pitching performances.

In summary: I’m putting my chips on Milwaukee tonight—not only do I think they’ll pull off the win against Pittsburgh but also that we’ll see more than six-and-a-half runs scored in what promises to be an intense showdown at American Family Field! Buckle up!