St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies - May 13, 2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, all eyes will be on whether the Cardinals can extend their impressive winning streak to ten games. With a current record of 23-19, they’ve been on fire lately, boasting a perfect 5-0 record against the spread in their last five outings. However, they’ll be facing a tough opponent in the Phillies, who hold a solid 24-17 record and have shown resilience with an 11-4 mark over their last 15 games.

On the mound for St. Louis is Sonny Gray, who brings a respectable 4-1 record and a 4.1 ERA into this matchup. While his strikeout rate sits at around 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, he has demonstrated that he can limit damage effectively when needed. The Cardinals’ recent form indicates they are not just winning but doing so while keeping games low-scoring; they’ve had the total go UNDER in five of their last six contests.

Conversely, Jesús Luzardo takes the hill for Philadelphia with an undefeated record of 3-0 and an impressive ERA of just over 2.1 this season, complemented by nearly ten strikeouts per nine innings pitched. His ability to miss bats could prove crucial against a Cardinals lineup that has been productive but may struggle against high-strikeout pitchers like Luzardo.

When we look at team batting stats per game, both teams are fairly evenly matched offensively—St. Louis averages about 4.7 runs with a batting average of .258 while Philadelphia scores slightly more at approximately 4.8 runs with a .254 average. However, it’s worth noting that Philadelphia’s higher run output might give them an edge in close matchups.

Oddsmakers opened this game with Philadelphia as -155 moneyline favorites—a reflection of Luzardo’s strong performance thus far this season compared to Gray’s slightly higher ERA and lower strikeout rate metrics.

Given these factors combined with St. Louis’ recent success and tendency for lower-scoring affairs (evident from their last meeting which ended in a tight 3-2 score), one could argue that betting on the UNDER might still be tempting despite my prediction leaning towards an OVER outcome tonight based on offensive potential from both sides.

In summary, I predict that while St. Louis is riding high on momentum from their winning streak—an impressive feat—it will be challenging to overcome Luzardo’s dominance on the mound coupled with home-field advantage for Philadelphia tonight. Expecting competitive play but ultimately forecasting a Phillies victory seems reasonable given all data points considered along with anticipating some fireworks offensively leading us toward an OVER outcome for total runs scored in this matchup!