Texas Rangers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - June 20, 2025

As we gear up for the Friday night showdown between the Texas Rangers and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, it’s essential to delve into the numbers that will shape this interleague contest. With Jacob deGrom on the mound for Texas and Mike Burrows taking the ball for Pittsburgh, there are plenty of intriguing stats to dissect.

Starting with deGrom, his record stands at 6-2 with a solid ERA of 3.2. While those numbers suggest he is a formidable opponent, it’s worth noting that his strikeouts per game average just over 7.9—indicative of his ability to dominate hitters when he’s on his game. However, recent performances have shown some vulnerability; despite his impressive stats overall, he has not been immune to giving up runs in crucial situations.

On the other side, Burrows enters this matchup with a modest win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA hovering around 3.8. His strikeout rate sits at approximately 7.4 per game, which suggests he can hold his own against opposing batters as well. The Pirates’ young pitcher may not have the same pedigree as deGrom but could surprise given that he’s had moments where he effectively neutralizes lineups.

When we look at team performance metrics, both squads present an interesting contrast in their offensive capabilities. The Rangers average around 3.6 runs per game with slightly better hitting statistics than the Pirates—averaging about 7.5 hits compared to Pittsburgh’s 7.4 hits per game and boasting a slightly higher slugging percentage (64% vs. Pittsburgh’s 62%). However, both teams share a common struggle with batting averages sitting at .221—a clear indication that finding consistency at the plate has been a challenge.

The current trends also paint an insightful picture heading into this matchup: Texas is currently on a three-game losing streak and has failed to cover spreads in their last five games (0-5 ATS). In contrast, while Pittsburgh has lost four out of their last five contests as well, they recently secured an uplifting victory against Detroit—scoring eight runs in that outing—which might provide them with some momentum.

Given these dynamics, my prediction leans toward an upset tonight: I believe Pittsburgh will edge out Texas in what could be a high-scoring affair due to both teams’ offensive struggles being somewhat offset by each other’s pitching inconsistencies.

With oddsmakers opening this game with a total set at eight runs and considering how both offenses are capable of breaking out unexpectedly (as evidenced by Pittsburgh’s recent performance), I expect this matchup will likely go OVER tonight’s total as well.

In summary, while deGrom may be favored statistically on paper and should command respect from bettors, don’t count out Burrows and the Pirates who may very well take advantage of Texas’ current slump while also providing enough offense themselves to push this one beyond the expected total scoreline.