Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Game 4 MLB Betting Pick – November 2





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Following a huge victory yesterday evening in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Phillies shutout the Astros to take a 2-1 series lead, they’ll look to replicate their success on Wednesday night at the rocking Citizen’s Bank Park.

While the Phillies entered this series as decisive underdogs, their hot and timely hitting have proven to give the red-hot Houston pitching staff fits through three games. Now the veteran and battle-tested Astros face another problematic World Series spell. Despite dominating in the regular season, Houston seems unsure at the plate, and with their pitchers falling apart in timely moment, the Phils’ offense could lead this team to their first World Series since 2007.

The Astros responded in a big-way in Game 2 following a Game 1 late-inning collapse, and require that same desperation Wednesday night. It’ll be Cristian Javier for the ‘Stros, and he has fared quite well in recent outings. Countering Javier will be the Phillies’ ace in Aaron Nola. Initially scheduled for Game 5, using Nola in an earlier spot is undoubtedly a huge advantage to a talented, but not deep pitching staff. Nola wasn’t great back in Game 1, but has baffled the Astros at the plate before, and will look to replicate that at what should be a raucous Citizens Bank Park.

We all witnessed the power of the crowd last night in Game 3, and the Philly fanatics will look to bring the noise once again. Can Philadelphia’s power bats continue their torrid pace vs. the red-hot Javier? Or will the Astros again bat around the talented Aaron Nola to tie up the Fall Classic? For answers to those questions and added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for this hotly anticipated Game 4 Wednesday night clash between the Phillies and Astros. Enjoy the game, folks!

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Game 4 Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

RUN LINE+1.5 (-185)-1.5 (+175)
TOTALOver 7.5 (-110)Under 7.5 (-110)
Overall Record98-77113-58
Home/Away Record45-4359-27
Runs Per Game4.64.5
Runs Allowed Per Game4.23.2
Team Batting Average.252.247
Bullpen ERA4.172.66

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Game 4 Prediction:

Despite the fact that Aaron Nola wasn’t that great in Game 1 of the series, expect a different showing Wednesday night at home. The ace of the Phillies staff has dominated at Citizens Bank Park, and with a slightly different gameplan and tweaks in his pitch mix, Nola has the stuff to keep these Astros’ batters off-balance.

Expect Nola to put together a showing reminiscent of October 3rd, when he also pitched against this same Astros team. In that game, Nola dominated through six perfect innings, generating all kinds of whiffs. The key in that game was the usage of his cutter, a pitch that the Astros have struggled mightily against in recent at-bats. In fact, they rank in the bottom-five in all of MLB in terms of OPS against the cutter, and if Nola comes into Game 4 throwing that pitch well – it could be lights out for the struggling Houston bats.

Cristian Javier won’t be all that easy to solve either, even though the Phils’ bats enter with some real swagger right now. Javier dominates both sides of the plate, and has really been a handful to right-handed batters, something Philadelphia has plenty of. His slider and fastball possess excellent movement, and Javier has been excellent in big spots before. Expect a solid showing and at least for the first few times through the order, it looks likely that Javier can and will keep the Phils’ offense in check.

Once the two starters give way to the bullpen, the edge shifts back to Houston’s impressive ‘pen. Their assortment of relievers have done well through this entire post-season, and still have all of their key, high-leverage arms available if needed. For Nola, the pressure is likely on him to go deep tonight, as the Phillies had some key arms throw 72 combined pitches last night. While they’re still likely available given Monday’s rainout – their length remains in doubt. The edge in the bullpen clearly tilts this pivotal Game 4 back toward the veteran Astros.

Phillies vs. Astros Trends To Know:

  • Astros are 2-8 in their last 10 World Series games.
  • Astros are 8-5 in their last 13 interleague games.
  • Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
  • Over is 10-2-3 in Astros last 15 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.

This line seems to be short on Houston, and it is rare to see them as slight underdogs.  Expect a better Aaron Nola showing in Game 4, but Cristian Javier has been elite for months now.  With the Houston offense primed to take advantage of a worn-down Phillies’ bullpen, and the Astros’ impressive collection of relievers capable of stifling the Phils’ bats, don’t be surprised to see this savvy Houston offense claw their team back into the World Series.  As small dogs, the Astros show good value behind some quality pitching here in Game 4 action.

Our Pick
About the Author
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Will Salvarinas
Content Writer
Blog and News
Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist providing top-notch analysis on the World Cup and European Championships. Over the years, he’s expanded his coverage to include other major sports like the NFL, NHL and MLB. As an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, Salvarinas is always eager to share his insight or get into a healthy debate over what bets to make.

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