Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Pick – Big 12 Championship December 3, 2022

The Kansas State Wildcats and TCU Horned Frogs meet in the Big 12 Championship on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Texas. This is a big matchup for TCU, who need the win to get into the College Football Playoff. We have our best Kansas State vs. TCU predictions and betting pick in the Big 12 Championship.

The Horned Frogs are entering the Big 12 Championship with a perfect record of 12-0. In their latest win, TCU beat the Iowa State Cyclones in a blowout, 62-14. It was another example of how good TCU has been this season.


This was a week after TCU survived on a last-second field goal against the Baylor Bears. TCU trotted out their field goal kicker with no time to prepare and nailed the kick for a 29-28 win. If that doesnโ€™t happen, we are not talking about TCU going to the College Football Playoff.

Their best win was on the road in a hostile environment at night in Austin. TCU were a 7.5-point underdog in a line that looked like a trap. Quinn Ewers was next to useless, though, and the Horned Frogs won the game by scoring just 17 points, 17-10.

On paper, TCU has this game and are going to the College Football Playoff. Games are not played on paper, though, so we will have to see how this one plays out. Kansas State is not an opponent to look past.

The Wildcats enter with some confidence in their step and have something to play for, as well. Going to a New Yearโ€™s Six bowl and disrupting TCUโ€™s plans should be enough for Kansas State to have motivation on Saturday afternoon.


There shouldnโ€™t be much need for motivation in a conference championship game. And as well as Kansas State is playing at the moment, it is hard to say that TCU is a vastly superior team going into the Big 12 Championship.

Head below for our Kansas State vs. TCU best bets and betting pick in the Big 12 Championship on December 3, 2022.

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Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Live Betting Odds:

Kansas State vs TCU Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Kansas State Wildcats+2.5 (-110)+120Over 63.5 (-110)
TCU Horned Frogs-2.5 (-110)-140Under 63.5 (-110)
Team DataKansas State WildcatsTCU Horned Frogs
Overall Record9-312-0
ATS Record8-3-19-2-1
Yards Per Game421.7473.3
Yards Against Per Game358.4383.0
Passing Yards Per Game211.5274.8
Rushing Yards Per Game210.2198.5

Kansas State vs. TCU Predictions

TCU probably has the best quarterback in the nation that not many people know about. While Caleb Williams takes his spot in the spotlight on the Heisman Trophy stage, Max Duggan continues to go about his business nicely.


The Horned Frogs quarterback is going into the Big 12 Championship with good numbers. He has passed for 3,070 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 66.6% completions. Donโ€™t count Duggan out as a runner, either.

If Duggan does not get an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, then heโ€™s being ripped off. It is unlikely that Duggan can win the award, but he should at least receive an invite. TCU and Duggan canโ€™t look past Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship, though.

Will Howard Undervalued In The Big 12

Duggan is underrated, but Will Howard is getting no attention after taking over for Adrian Martinez. Martinez went down with an injury in October, as Howard stole his job from right underneath him.

The native of Pennsylvania has passed for 1,224 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Heโ€™s also scored twice on the ground.

Martinez is the more mobile quarterback of the two, but Howard has been the better passer. Donโ€™t be surprised if we see Martinez on the field to run some plays designed for him against TCU. The Horned Frogs should be preparing for two quarterbacks.

Kansas State is 41st in the nation, with 421.7 yards per game. They have been one of the best teams running the football. The threat of Deuce Vaughn hitting a home run out of the backfield is a real danger for the Horned Frogs.

TCU Does Not Have A Championship Defense

The Horned Frogs are not built like Michigan or Georgia. They may win and go to the College Football Playoff, but the defense is not physical to compete with them.

TCU has allowed 383 yards per game for 74th in the FBS. Howard should get going in this one against the TCU secondary. The Horned Frogs have allowed an average of 238.7 passing yards per game.

They are 87th in the FBS against the pass. TCU is being praised for their offense, but what about Kansas State? Howard has been one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 since he took over at the mid-season mark.

Kansas State vs. TCU Betting Pick:

TCU is the better team on paper, but these squads are pretty dead even recently. The Wildcats have not gotten as much attention as TCU. This isnโ€™t to say that Kansas State canโ€™t compete with the Horned Frogs, though.

They certainly have the defensive advantage in this one. Kansas State has allowed 19.4 points per game. That is good for the top-15 in the FBS through the regular season.


The Wildcats have handled some good offenses as well, including Baylor and Oklahoma State since losing to TCU on October 22. TCU defeated the Wildcats by a score of 38-28, but this was when Kansas State didnโ€™t have a red-hot Howard.

A neutral field should even the playing field at AT&T Stadium, too. The committee wants an easy weekend without any controversy. However, TCU losing is going to keep them up a little later at night.

For our Kansas State vs. TCU prediction, weโ€™re projecting a small upset in a 38-34 final.


Kansas State vs. TCU Best Bet
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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