Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Pick – January 29





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This year’s AFC Championship game is riddled with intrigue. From the trash-talking between the two sides, to the injury statuses of Chiefs’ stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the once-lowly Cincinnati Bengals will enter ‘Burrowhead’ on Sunday evening, thinking they should be leaving with a victory, and another trip to the Super Bowl.

But the Chiefs have dominated this season and the AFC for a long while now, and aren’t about to just concede to the Bengals. Though Kansas City is banged-up and enters Sunday evening losing three-straight to this upstart Cincy side with Joe Burrow, Kansas City is geared up for another Super Bowl push.

The Bengals looked dominant last week in snowy Buffalo, and despite head coach Zac Taylor feeling like they were put at a disadvantage due to the Week 17 cancelled game – the Bengals quickly turned a rabid Bills’ fanbase quite silent last Sunday. They’ll look to repeat that at Arrowhead this week, hoping once again that their depleted offensive line can keep Burrow outright.

The Chiefs will remarkably be hosting their fifth-straight home AFC Championship game – an incredible feat. The consistency of Mahomes and this Chiefs’ organization has been outstanding. This is a battle-tested group, and one that understands what is needed to succeed. And though both TE Travis Kelce and QB Patrick Mahomes enter Sunday evening battling legitimate injuries, they remain incredible talents and both should pose matchup issues for the visiting Bengals.

For further insight on this crucial showdown to send one lucky AFC franchise to this year’s Super Bowl, keep on reading on beneath the posted odds for a full matchup preview, trends, and the latest information to help you make an informed decision for this playoff matchup between the Chiefs and Bengals on Sunday night.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

SPREAD+1.5 (-110)-1.5 (-110)
TOTALOver 47.5 (-110)Under 47.5 (-110)
Overall Record14-415-3
ATS Record13-57-11
Home/Away Record7-38-1
Points Per Game26.329.1
Points Against Per Game19.921.9
Passing Yards Per Game259.8293.2
Rushing Yards Per Game97.2117.9

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Undoubtedly all eyes are on the statuses of the Kansas City stars, as they prepare for another massive homefield AFC title game. While Mahomes will start for the Chiefs, you have to wonder how healthy he’ll be on his hobbled high-ankle sprain. Backing Mahomes as a pocket passer isn’t the most ideal play, and if his star target in tight end Travis Kelce is banged-up as well – that is going to be tough for this Chiefs’ offense.

Expect Mahomes to still be limited, despite the treatment and/or medication received in the lead-up. High-ankle sprains have lengthy recovery times and can often nag and impact mobility significantly. If the Bengals don’t need to focus on Mahomes escaping the pocket, expect this Cincinnati defense to hold up fairly well. Cincinnati has put the clamps down on opposing rushers all season long, and their secondary play has blanketed top receivers. And while they can be weak against opposing tight ends in the middle of the field, Travis Kelce isn’t stopped by many defensive groups.

With the Chiefs’ offense somewhat limited despite their improvisation, Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ attack enters Sunday in fine form. Burrow excels against the blitz and is actually 3-0 in his brief career against Kansas City. The Chiefs love to blitz, and with all of the receiving talent on the Bengals – that can and should be an issue.

And while the Chiefs can generate pressure and likely get to the Bengals’ depleted offensive line much more than Buffalo could – if Burrow gets the ball out quickly, and spreads it around, Cincy can move the chains with ease. Even within their run game, look for the talented duo of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to really be able to keep the Chiefs in check and accountable in certain situations. Kansas City has been porous vs. the run game, and especially vulnerable to pass-catching backs.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Trends To Know:

  • Bengals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
  • Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
  • Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
  • Chiefs are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs seem to be fading at the wrong time, and after being gifted this game due to the Week 17 cancelled clash between Buffalo and Cincinnati, it would be quite the story if the Bengals won on the road once again. The Chiefs regularly have fallen flat at home, and with key pieces limited, this Bengals’ offense should out-pace Mahomes and the Chiefs. Look for Joe Burrow to get back to another Super Bowl on Sunday night.

Our Pick
Bengals +1.5
About the Author
Will Salvarinas profile picture
Will Salvarinas
Content Writer
Blog and News
Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist providing top-notch analysis on the World Cup and European Championships. Over the years, he’s expanded his coverage to include other major sports like the NFL, NHL and MLB. As an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, Salvarinas is always eager to share his insight or get into a healthy debate over what bets to make.

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