Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Divisional Round Betting Pick – January 21

The NFL’s Divisional Round of the playoffs kicks off Saturday afternoon as the Jacksonville Jaguars look to continue their improbable run after last week’s thrilling comeback.

Though it did look bleak for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, a second-half push from down 27 points, secured their spot in Kansas City. It’ll be a tough task for the unproven Jags, as the Chiefs possess plenty of playoff experience, are well-rested, and have Patrick Mahomes in elite form.

Arrowhead Stadium is very likely to be rocking Saturday afternoon, and the conditions will be quite cold, and likely very wet as well. The Jacksonville defense showed up in a big way last week vs. the Chargers, but they’ve yet to see an offense as elite as the Mahomes-led Chiefs.

Expect the Travis’ to both play a key role. Travis Etienne has emerged as a true dual-threat option for the Jags out of the backfield and his speed and elusiveness can and should cause issues. And on the Chiefs side, Travis Kelce remains the top target for Mahomes and Jacksonville and their linebacking corps have not covered the tight end position all that well all season long.

The playoffs are always exciting, and that is only enhanced when we see Patrick Mahomes doing his thing in a big spot vs. up-and-coming Trevor Lawrence. Two talented QB’s should produce a thrilling matchup. Lawrence is 37-0 all-time on Saturday dating back to high school, and it will be interesting to see if that trend continues. For further insight on this battle between these bitter rivals, keep on reading on beneath the posted odds for a full matchup preview, trends, and the latest information to help you make an informed decision for this playoff matchup between Kansas City and the Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

SPREAD+9.5 (-110)-9.5 (-110)
TOTALOver 52.5 (-110)Under 52.5 (-110)
Overall Record10-814-3
ATS Record9-97-10
Home/Away Record4-57-1
Points Per Game24.329.0
Points Against Per Game21.621.9
Passing Yards Per Game239.8299.2
Rushing Yards Per Game125.2115.9

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Let’s start this off with the obvious – Trevor Lawrence cannot be any worse on Saturday afternoon than he was in the first half vs. the Chargers last week. The Jags showed that they can score, and when Lawrence is on, this aerial attack is tough to shut down.

When these teams last met in Week 10, Lawrence finished with some impressive numbers, and the Jags’ offense kept his team with a chance. Lawrence secured nearly 300 passing yards through the air, and Evan Engram had a huge matchup edge within the Chiefs’ secondary. Kansas City has not covered tight ends very well all season long and look for that to continue in Saturday’s divisional round showdown.

And while Mahomes and Kansas City do boast an elite offense, no defensive unit has improved in the second half more than the Jaguars. They completely shut down an impressive Chargers’ offense last week, and though Justin Herbert managed 27 points in the first half, let’s not forget it was Lawrence who consistently gave short field.

Look for Jacksonville to clamp down very well on the run game, and this is a defensive front that can and should win the battles at the line of scrimmage. They secure an elite pressure rate, and with a steady secondary – Mahomes is going to require ample time and space to hit his targets. That’s a luxury he might not have. Though it is nearly impossible to stifle the Chiefs entirely, Jacksonville’s defense is well-positioned to at least limit them on Saturday.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Trends To Know:

  • Andy Reid is 18-10 ATS off a bye.
  • Jaguars are 55-100 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Jags will be even better this week, than they were in the second-half last week. The nerves are out of their system, and it is house money from here on out for this upstart group. Trevor Lawrence can find edges within the Chiefs’ secondary, and Kansas City has had issues all season in playing down to competition, and putting teams away. Expect Jacksonville to give Kansas City a real scare.

Our Pick
Jaguars +9.5
About the Author
Will Salvarinas profile picture
Will Salvarinas
Content Writer
Blog and News
Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist providing top-notch analysis on the World Cup and European Championships. Over the years, he’s expanded his coverage to include other major sports like the NFL, NHL and MLB. As an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, Salvarinas is always eager to share his insight or get into a healthy debate over what bets to make.

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