New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Betting Pick – January 23





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It should be an intense Monday night encounter from Scotiabank Arena as the New York Islanders head into Toronto looking to claw back into a playoff spot.

Though the Isles had a couple of good seasons at the outset of Lou Lamoriello’s tenure, it’s been downhill ever since. The team has sputtered in recent seasons, and this year their inconsistency continues to plague them. Goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been exceptional between the pipes, but he hasn’t gotten much support by way of goal support. The Isles are 2-5-3 in their past ten, and have historically struggled when travelling to Toronto.

For the Leafs, they’re getting by and still getting results, despite not playing their best hockey. They’ve dealt with their fair share of injuries, but a mediocre showing Saturday night surely had this team seething. They’re all but guaranteed to again finish second or third in the competitive Atlantic division this season, setting up an intense rematch against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the post-season. Really, all that is left to be determined is home-ice advantage in that series. After a run of strong Ilya Samsonov starts, expect the Leafs to go back to Matt Murray on Monday night.

With the Isles entering Toronto a desperate hockey team, it should make for an intense encounter, and potentially create some value on the betting underdog. There is a bitter rivalry between these squads, as both Lamoriello and Leafs’ captain John Tavares have deep history with the other organization. It should make for a good matchup on Monday night. Continue reading on below for further game details, and our betting prediction and analysis for the Leafs/Isles. Enjoy!

New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

PUCK LINE+1.5 (-135)-1.5 (+115)
TOTALOver 6 (-110)Under 6 (-110)
Overall Record23-20-528-11-8
ATS Record20-28-021-26-0
Home/Away Record10-11-317-3-4
Goals Per Game2.413.00
Goals Against Per Game2.542.27
Shots On Goal Per Game29.433.5
Power Play %21.525.5
Penalty Kill %77.1%82.5

New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

Winless in their last four contests, and a playoff spot slipping away – expect the Isles to bring their best Monday night in Toronto. They simply have to, as the games become more and more important just before the All-Star break.

The Leafs have a real knack of playing down to their competition, and tend to be a bit sleepy at times in games where it doesn’t really matter. This is the type of situation they struggle in, so don’t be surprised to see the depth, speed, and tenacity of the Isles really jump on Toronto early in this contest.

The Isles biggest issue has been lack of scoring lately. Lane Lambert’s side has seen that dry up in January of 2023, rarely exceeding two goals a game. They enter Monday night 24th in total offense, and have been brutal on the power play. Their underlying metrics have also tanked, as they no longer control the majority of shots and chances at 5 on 5 play.

The only thing consistently keeping the Isles afloat is their goalie, Ilya Sorokin. The talented Russian netminder has kept his team in games, and spearheaded a top-10 defense, and a top-5 penalty kill. They don’t give up much, though they’ll have their hands full with a deep and talented Leafs’ offense.

For Toronto, expect Matt Murray between the pipes on Monday after a lengthy run of Ilya Samsonov. Murray has been woeful of late in goal, and lost his hold on the starting job in the crease. Can the mediocre play of Murray revive this Isles’ offense? We’ll just have to wait and find out, but the Islanders can certainly trouble the blue-line of Toronto, with their speed and forechecking.

The Islanders do enter with some injuries of their own, complicating matters. Defenceman Adam Pelech remains out, while key contributors like Oliver Wahlstrom and Kyle Palmieri are also sidelined. For the Leafs, TJ Brodie and Pontus Holmberg remain out of their regular lineup.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Trends To Know:

  • Islanders are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
  • Islanders are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.
  • Under is 10-4 in Islanders last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Islanders are 4-11 in their last 15 vs. Atlantic.
  • Maple Leafs are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.

We’ve got a strong lean to a tight, low-scoring game, but the better value sides with the road Islanders on Monday night. Look for this team to be fired up after another dismal showing over the weekend, and with every point mattering – this Isles team should be able to take advantage of a Leafs’ defense featuring no TJ Brodie, and Matt Murray in goal. The Leafs play down to their opposition when it isn’t seen as a ‘big’ game, and look for the Isles to pounce on that early. After that, it’s tough to catch up on Ilya Sorokin.


Our Pick
About the Author
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Will Salvarinas
Content Writer
Blog and News
Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist providing top-notch analysis on the World Cup and European Championships. Over the years, he’s expanded his coverage to include other major sports like the NFL, NHL and MLB. As an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, Salvarinas is always eager to share his insight or get into a healthy debate over what bets to make.

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