Betting ‘The Field’ Against Donald Trump

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I’ve gotta be honest; I’ve been in a political betting funk lately.

This election cycle started with so much excitement and promise, only to fizzle out entirely three months into the year. The Democratic primaries had a rich array of characters and lots of different moving parts and drama; one could write ten articles per week and never feel repetitive.

Then, Barack Obama had to step in and orchestrate his pre-Super Tuesday Godfather move, convincing every moderate Democrat to abruptly end their respective campaigns and “bend the knee” for Biden. Well, except for Elizabeth Warren, of course. She stuck around for another week to make sure that the knife she stuck in Bernie Sanders’s back was in there nice and deep.

The pandemic changed the entire complexion of the race – and the country as a whole – shortly after that. The DNC refused to reschedule the next round of primaries, threatening to keep sending voters to the polling stations — CDC recommendations — be damned, until Sen. Sanders finally waved the white flag. And just like that, Joe was the last Democrat standing.
 

And Then There Were Two…

Electoral College Odds

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump+130
  • Joe Biden-160

If being left with only two candidates wasn’t bad enough, Biden promptly burrowed himself into some kind of hole, rarely to be seen again. Don’t get me wrong; whoever realized the right move was to hide the former Vice President away and force Trump to run against a shadow is a genius.

Unfortunately, that leaves a political betting writer like yours’ truly with only one incumbent candidate and two or three never-ending national crises (depending on whether the BLM protests are considered a “crisis” like the pandemic and economic depression) for material.

Throw in the fact that it’s a full-time job attempting to discern what’s actually going on in a country without a single unbiased, reputable media outlet, and you have all the ingredients for election cycle burnout.

In an attempt to remedy these “blues,” I’ve been on the lookout for new and exciting political betting markets – or at least interesting new ways to wager upon the same outcomes.

That’s how BetOnline’s electoral college matchups caught my eye. They provide a few different combinations of ways to bet the 2020 presidential election – some of which address my gravest concerns regarding picking either of the remaining candidates.

 

BetOnline’s Electoral College Game

BetOnline’s oddsmakers have set betting lines for almost every state. If you want to wager on the winning party in each electoral college matchup, that’s an option. I’ll be revisiting those contests in another article in the near future.

Electoral College Odds

  • Matchup Odds
  • Republican Nominee+130
  • Democrat Nominee-160

My focus today is on the presidency overall. Usually, political betting sites make you choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Most will throw in a handful of long-shot candidates like Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, and Andrew Cuomo as well – nothing too worthwhile.

What I like about BetOnline’s markets is the flexibility.

You can take the field against either Trump or Biden, or merely pick the winning party without it costing anything. In each of the matchups, Trump, the Republican Party, or taking the field against Biden are listed at +130. To bet the Democrats or fade the President, it’ll cost you –160.

Trump is in a terrible spot at the moment. His deficit in the polls is nearly unheard of for an incumbent presidential candidate. Barring some dramatic changes over the next four months, it’s highly probable that he will be leaving the White House at the end of his first term.
 

The Joe Biden Experience

At the same time, how certain can one be that Joe Biden will even make it to Election Day?

The DNC’s whole strategy is to keep him out of the public eye. When Joe does give a speech or an interview, it’s all heavily choreographed and rehearsed. Nothing is left to chance.

And that’s smart because whenever we’ve gotten a brief glimpse of Joe Biden off-script this election cycle, he’s been a disaster. Any perceived challenge to his record is met with immediate hostility.

Joe, So Far…

He’s asked countless town hall attendees to “vote for somebody else,” tried to fight an autoworkers union member, and told a prominent African American radio host that “if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.”

Then there was the guy he called “fat” and challenged to a pushup contest. And you can’t forget about the weird story about his lifeguarding days, when he described how he used to let black kids pet his hairy legs for some reason. That was shared on the same day we learned about Corn Pop, the “bad dude.”

Not to mention the countless number of times the former VP has either lost track of what he’s saying, froze like a deer in headlights, or rambled incoherently without so much as touching on the topic at hand.

Electoral College Odds

  • Matchup Odds
  • Joe Biden-160
  • Field (any other)+130

You also have to worry about his physical health. It’s apparent to anyone who’s been watching that Biden is on a steep decline mentally – as sad as it is. Re-watching interviews from just three years ago, he seems like a totally different person. But what about COVID? Or other age-related ailments?

He’s 77-years-old.

And even with the disappearing act, participating in a presidential campaign is a stressful undertaking. Throw in a pandemic that primarily targets people in his age range, and it’s worth remembering that tomorrow isn’t promised for anyone – Biden just happens to be in an especially delicate situation.

Even if he does survive, are we sure he’ll continue to be able to hide in the basement until November? What happens if he can’t get out of the three scheduled debates? All signs point to the Democrats pushing for virtual debates, which will be easier to rig, but if they’re unsuccessful?
 

Trump vs. The Field

Right now, it would appear that anyone could beat Donald Trump. I’m not sure most voters even care who or what’s running against him. The Democrats have successfully framed support for their party as “a vote against Trump;” you’re not voting FOR anything – just the removal of the current President from office.

Electoral College Odds

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump+130
  • Field (any other)-160

So far, that’s been enough. But what happens if Joe freaks out on stage after enduring several rounds of insults from Trump and drops a racial slur or something crazier? What if he forgets his own name and his issues are finally too glaring for even the most devoted liberal to ignore?

Again, he recently told Charlagmagne Tha God that the host “ain’t black” if he hasn’t already decided to vote for Biden over the President. That was over some reasonably innocuous questions about wanting Democrats to offer something tangible to earn Black votes, rather than the usual vague promises.

Now imagine poor Biden standing under those bright stage lights on live television while Donald Trump gives him the Hillary treatment – calling him “Sleepy Joe,” questioning his mental health, and taking the former VP to task over the 1994 Crime Bill.

Maybe Joe will handle the heat just fine, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

Which brings me back to what I love about these betting markets. It’s becoming clear to me that President Trump’s days in office are numbered. At the same time, I don’t want to risk any money on Biden – in case he’s unable to hibernate from now until Election Day.

That’s why I’m all over betting “the field” against Donald Trump at –160!
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.