Last week, it looked like President Trump’s reelection effort was in serious trouble for the first time this election cycle. He was widely panned for the government’s slow response to a rapidly spreading global pandemic; the stock market had just begun its dramatic free-fall, and the online oddsmakers listed Joe Biden as the favorite to win in November.
Now, I’m seeing the coronavirus as an opportunity to bet on Donald Trump winning the 2020 presidential election at the best odds we’ve seen all year.
What a difference a week makes!
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Outflanking the DNC to Their Left
I can’t emphasize enough just how terrible politically and how out of touch with American workers the establishment wing of the Democratic Party has become.
While they’ve spent the last year using every dirty trick in the book to prevent a Bernie Sanders nomination – all in a desperate ploy to protect their corporate donors – Republics are now looking to implement several of the Senator’s populist ideas, effectively running to the left of the Biden’s, Pelosi’s, and Schumer’s of the world – economically speaking.
Initially, the Trump administration’s response to the economic crisis was to inject trillions of dollars in cash into the market, hoping it would restore faith and stop the steep decline. Over $3 trillion later, these cash injections have failed.
Unlike his ideologically paralyzed opponents, the President has since shown the ability to adapt to the situation. His reelection campaign can no longer be built around a high GDP and low unemployment numbers. Economists are expecting the US’s GDP to drop 14% in a single quarter, with unemployment expected to spike to around 20% — Great Depression levels.
Rather than stubbornly trudging ahead with plans for tax cuts and bailouts for industry leaders, Trump and several Republican members of Congress have taken a page out of Andrew Yang’s and Bernie Sanders’s playbooks.
Trump’s Moves So Far
After signing the Democratic House’s toothless “paid sick leave” bill that excludes all of the largest corporations in America, only covering roughly 20% of the workforce, the White House has been clear in their assertions that Pelosi’s legislation won’t be nearly enough.
The President has since suspended all foreclosures and evictions (something Obama wasn’t even willing to do in 2009), invoked the Defense Production Act – to force private manufacturers in the US to produce much-needed medical equipment, and mobilized the US Navy to deploy their hospital ships in the effort to fight this virus.
Battle Over Universal Basic Income
Most importantly, however, is the plan being discussed to implement a Universal Basic Income stimulus package for the duration of the pandemic. American’s are being laid off at alarming rates and – with most of the economy shut down and people stuck in their houses – in desperate need of spending money to pay bills and buy food and necessities.
“We are the wealthiest nation in human history and have the lowest borrowing costs of any major government on the planet, and thus, can easily afford to contain the pandemic and keep our people well-provisioned simultaneously,” wrote Eric Levitz, in New York Magazine. “All we need is for Congress to overcome its superstitions about deficits and supply the economy with the many trillions of dollars in stimulus that even many center-right economists say we need.”
However, while Republicans fight to put cash in everyone’s hands, it’s Nancy Pelosi and the corporate Democrats slowing things down! Despite time being of the essence, she wants to means-test the stimulus package. So, instead of everyone receiving a check, the Speaker of the House wants to add forms and paperwork and force people to prove that they really need it.
“Why?” asked Jamelle Bouie of the New York Times. “If we agree that the crisis is stark and immediate, and we know that precise targeting takes time and administrative effort, why make that a requirement when you can simply disburse the funds *now* and collect from high-income recipients *later*?”
“I truly don’t know how to describe how maddening it is that Republicans and Trump officials are to the left of Congressional Dem leadership on this issue,” tweeted political activist Jordan Uhl.
If you thought the wave of working-class voters flipping from blue to red in 2016 was a shocker, wait until you see the 2020 exodus away from the DNC.
The party has already turned its back on labor and Hispanic populations during the primaries, relying on older suburban voters to defeat Bernie Sanders. Now, they’re pouring salt in the wound.
Joe Biden is going to get absolutely smashed in November. Take whatever cash you have available at the moment and put it on Trump –105 – it’s as close to a sure-thing as you’re going to find at political betting sites right now!