Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg Pick – Bundesliga Matchday 26 – May 16

Saturday morning should make for quite the sports morning here in North America, as one of the world’s top soccer leagues returns to action. TV providers have been quick to gobble up the games, so please be sure to check your local listings so you don’t miss out on high-scoring action, and great betting opportunities.

Entering the pause in March, the Bundesliga was averaging a stellar 3.25 goals per game, clearly the highest of all major leagues in Europe. It’ll make for exciting action, and Saturday’s mid-table clash between Augsburg and Wolfsburg is certain to deliver similar excitement.

Much of the discussion in the lead-up to this clash has surrounded Augsburg and their remarkable decline. It hasn’t been an easy season for the once-promising group, as they enter matchday 26 in 14th position. They hired a brand new coach just days before the pandemic hit, and though he was all set to make his debut on Saturday, Heiko Herrlich will have to wait another week. This is because he was remarkably suspended for breaking quarantine protocols – apparently to go out and get toothpaste! Quite the introduction to a new club, Heiko!

Wolfsburg meanwhile enter this week a confident group. They beat Augsburg last year by an impressive 8-1 scoreline, and while that’s unlikely to materialize once again – the Wolves do enter with some confidence. Entering the pause they had been undefeated in six straight Bundesliga clashes, and as they sit in 7th spot – they remain in firm striking distance of a coveted Europa League position by year’s end. Wolfsburg have controlled this fixture for the past three seasons, and know what’s at stake.

With all the controversy in the lead-up surrounding this match, there is still a game to be played on the pitch. Both squads are desperate for points at the moment, and that should produce a thrilling encounter. Read on beneath the posted odds for a full match preview, tactical analysis, and a betting prediction for Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg in the German Bundesliga.

Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg Betting Odds:

FC Augsburg (+240)
VfL Wolfsburg (+117)
Draw (+220)

Over 2.5 (+100)
Under 2.5 (-120)

*Betting odds provided by BetOnline.ag

Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg Pick:

Though the Bundesliga’s pause was a gruelling wait for many elite teams and soccer fans, it likely came at a great time for Augsburg. They had just gotten a new manager, and were really struggling – having not won in five matches before the break. Their defense was in shambles, and they couldn’t score either. Certainly a tough set of problems for a group flirting with relegation. That said, controversy has still found them, and with their manager sidelined for Saturday’s encounter – it remains to be seen how this group responds.

Wolfsburg meanwhile are entirely at the other end of the spectrum. They were red-hot back in early March, having only lost once from their last seven Bundesliga contests. Bayern Munich is currently the only team in better form at the moment, and Wolfsburg know they have to be able to take advantage of a fading Augsburg side.

The Wolves know they can’t afford to concede many points down the stretch, not if they want a return to European football. That said, they will be forced to play without their top goal scorer on Saturday in Wout Weghorst. The key striker is suspended for yellow card accumulation, and it is believed that Admir Mehmedi and Daniel Ginczek will be up front for the visitors. That’s still amazing depth, and that duo should be able to pressure a weak Augsburg back-line.

For Augsburg, they’ll have a mostly healthy lineup to choose from – though key defender Simon Asta is reportedly still out injured. That has to be a concern for new management as Augburg have struggled to keep the ball out of their net all season long, and that was also a concern in early March as well. In fact, they’ve conceded nine goals in their past 4 matches, and without Asta it will make slowing down Wolfsburg’s impressive attack even more difficult.

Expect a cagey affair at the outset, with neither group entirely knowing what to expect. Augsburg will likely try to focus heavily on team football and defense under their new manager’s orders, while Wolfsburg know that anything other than three points will be deemed a failure.

THESE WOLVES HOWL
Wolfsburg sit 7th in the table, but are likely better than that based off of key advanced metrics and recent form. They’re undefeated all season against bottom-8 sides, and actually possess the second-rated defense in German soccer in terms of expected goals against. Meanwhile, Augsburg have yet to defeat a top-8 side all year long, and there is no evidence they can score on Wolfsburg or stop their depth of attacking options.

It’s a sprint to the finish in the Bundesliga, and look for Wolfsburg’s talent to win out on Saturday – catapulting Augsburg into a bitter relegation battle. At a juicy plus-money price, a road victory for the more talented group seems fitting here.

Prediction: Wolfsburg 2-1

My Pick
Wolfsburg
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.