Fiorentina vs. Sampdoria Pick – Serie A October 2, 2020

Serie A in Italy has one match on the schedule for Friday, as Sampdoria travels to Florence for a meeting with Fiorentina. I certainly wouldn’t mind being on a vacation in Tuscany right about now, but watching from afar will have to do for now. Both clubs are looking for signs of improvement in the 2020-21 campaign.

Fiorentina took a nice leap forward from 2018-19 to the 2019-20 season. They were just trying to stay out of relegation two years ago, as they finished with a record of 8-17-13 and 41 points. That put only 3 points between them and Empoli, so they were cutting it close. They made the most of their next opportunity in Serie A.

Fiorentina advanced to 12-13-13 and 49 points in 2019-20. That was what they were looking for. They weren’t going to turn into a Champions League club in just one season, but going from 16th to 10th in the table can be viewed as a win for Fiorentina. Conversely, Sampdoria went in the wrong direction.

Sampdoria finished 15-8-15 in 2018-29 with 53 points for 9th, and then fell to 12-6-20 and 42 points the following season for 15th in the table. They were amongst the worst in goal differential in Serie A, with a -17 during league play. Sampdoria were also one of the coldest clubs towards the end of the Serie A campaign, with three straight losses and a draw.

They’ve looked out of sorts to begin the 2020-21 campaign in Serie A. They had a tough assignment having to deal with Juventus on the first Matchday of the season. It went as expected, with Juventus taking care of an inferior opponent by a score of 3-0.

Juventus put 8 shots on target compared to just 1 for Sampdoria. They had a more winnable match in front of them at home on Saturday against Benevento and disappointed mightily. Benevento were just promoted to Serie A this year, so you have to think Samdoria were spent from their meeting versus Juventus and didn’t take Bevento seriously. They’re in serious danger of falling to 0-0-3 in Tuscany on Friday evening. Head below for our free Fiorentina vs. Sampdoria pick for October 2, 2020.

Fiorentina vs. Sampdoria Serie A Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Fiorentina -0.5, -1 (-114)
  • Sampdoria +0.5, +1 (-106)
Moneyline:

  • Fiorentina (-135)
  • Sampdoria (+328)
  • Draw (+285)
Total:

  • Over 2.5, 3 (-112)
  • Under 2.5, 3 (-108)

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Fiorentina vs. Sampdoria Prediction:

The defence for Sampdoria is going to have to improve if they want 3 points or even a draw in Tuscany. Through their first two matches this season, Juventus and Benevento were able to have their way against them.

After Juventus scored 3 goals, the newly promoted Benevento did the same offensively. Conversely, you can’t criticize what Fiorentina has done on the pitch so far. They beat Torino at home, 1-0, and then battled hard in a 4-3 loss against Inter Milan on the road.

That was not an easy match on the road, but I thought Fiorentina played well against a more talented club. They had the lead, 3-2, before Inter Milan scored at the 87 and 89 minute to spoil an upset opportunity. That loss snapped a five-match winning streak for Fiorentina. They won by a combined score of 18-2 in those five matches, which consisted of Serie A matches and friendlies.

There were some rumblings that Nikola Milenkovic was heading to West Ham, but the Serb will remain in Italy after a sizable bid for the talented 22-year-old. Also worth noting is that Manchester United put a loan bid in for Federico Chiesa, though that was rejected.

If they do transfer Chiesa, it’s likely for a Juventus defender. Offensively Fiorentina are strong, and don’t have to address that aspect of their club, but adding a talented defender would help. The last thing Sampdoria wants to see is another squad with offensive talent, but they’re going to get it Friday.

Monaco recently loaned an offensive playmaker to Sampdoria, Keita Balde, but he will not be able to play because of contracting the coronavirus. His presence would have helped in Tuscany on Friday.

Given their poor form, especially defensively to start the 2020-21 campaign, Sampdoria likely don’t keep up on the road. Fiorentina most recently defeated Sampdoria, 5-1, in February on the road. Prior to that, they were 2-1 winners over Sampdoria at home. I don’t see a 5-1 match here, but 3-1 or 2-1 looks about right.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.