What did we learn about these two teams in their opening games? That Honduras are uncompromisingly aggressive but limited, and that Ecuador are hard-working, well-organised and a generally better team than Honduras. Ecuador certainly looked the more dangerous of the two going forward, so the -147 on the South Americans collecting all three points will attract plenty of attention. I wouldn’t talk anybody out of backing Ecuador, but there are arguably better ways of making them pay than merely backing them on the Match Odds market.
This game is essentially sudden death for these two sides – after defeats in their opening matches both teams know that anything other than a win here spells extremely bad news. Generally speaking you’d expect a winners-takes-all scenario to lead to an open match with chances at both ends, and this game should certainly fall into that category (especially as the weather should be fairly cool by the time it kicks-off).
There are other reasons to believe there’ll be goals in this game, too, the main one being the way the two sides defended in their first matches. Honduras struggled to contain France, and looked so vulnerable they are also likely to wobble against weaker opposition. Meanwhile, Ecuador were lucky to concede only twice against Switzerland in a game that highlighted the defensive shortcomings that have been obvious in Ecuador’s play all year (they conceded nine times in four friendlies in the run-up to Brazil). Put it all together, and I’d rather be on Overs than Unders.
‘Yes’ in the Both Teams to Score category is a good selection on this game. At some point both teams will need to play to win if they want a realistic chance of staying in this competition so I expect a fairly attack-minded approach from both sets of players. Defensively both teams struggled in their opening games so the chances of both teams conceding appear pretty good. Yes, you have to accept an odds-on price, but considering this game is essentially a battle to the death to stay in the World Cup, I’m willing to take the price on offer. My recommendation would be both teams to score, but will also recommend over 2.5 goals at -110 for those who cant bet the “both teams to score market”.
+1.12 units (4-4)