Lazio vs. Sassuolo Pick – Serie A July 11, 2020

It’s gut check time for Lazio on Saturday at home with Sassuolo taking a trip to Stadio Olimpico. After botching an opportunity to cut the Juventus lead down, Lazio have another opportunity to do that or keep pace. Juventus are in action today as well, with a more difficult challenge for Juventus against Atalanta. Atalanta are hitting their stride, and should prove to be a nice test for Juventus. Lazio must snap out of their cold drought on Saturday.

If they don’t get going today against Sassuolo, I don’t know what to say about Lazio anymore. Lazio are coming off two losses against AC Milan and Lecce by scores of 3-0 and 2-1. Losing against AC Milan, fine, that’s understandable, albeit it was a non-contest. But, dropping a game against Lecce during a Serie A title race is inexcusable. Lecce are scraping hard to avoid relegation, so Lazio should have expected something from their opponents. They apparently didn’t expect it, because Simone Inzaghi didn’t have his side ready to play.

You would have believed after the performance against AC Milan, Lazio would have been in better form. However, the hangover persisted and they missed out on 3 big points. Even a point would have been nice with Juventus losing on Tuesday as well. Juventus were 4-2 losers against AC Milan, so Zlatan got the best of both of the top clubs in Serie A in a matter of days. Juventus enters Saturday with a record of 24-3-4 and 75 points.

75 points gives Juve a 7-point advantage on Lazio going into Saturday. There are no guarantees for either club today, but Lazio has to look at this as another golden opportunity. They can’t allow Saturday to pass them by and continue to be 7 points or worse 10 points behind. There are seven Matchdays left in the Serie A schedule. That gives Lazio enough room to mount a comeback, but three sloppy performances in a row will be hard to overcome.

Sassuolo are entering this match with plenty of confidence. They are winners in three straight, with wins over Bologna, Lecce, and Fiorentina. Sassuolo also have a 4-1 loss against Atalanta and two draws versus Inter Milan and Verona. Not bad form for Sassuolo at all, as they’ve taken advantage of disinterested clubs. Sassuolo head into today with a record of 12-7-12 and 43 points. They’re 8 points behind Napoli for the Europa League Qualifier and 8 behind Roma for the Europa League, so they are keeping their faith hopes alive. Head below for our free Lazio vs. Sassuolo pick for July 11, 2020 in Serie A.

Lazio vs. Sassuolo Serie A Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Lazio -1 (-103)
  • Sassuolo +1 (-117)
Moneyline:

  • Lazio (-164)
  • Sassuolo (+420)
Total Points:

  • Over 3, 3.5 (-125)
  • Under 3, 3.5 (+105)

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Lazio vs. Sassuolo Prediction:

Sassuolo have been playing in good form since returning to play. Lazio must acknowledge this or it’s going to be another long day on Saturday. In their first meeting against Sassuolo on the road, Lazio took care of business for a 2-1 win in November. Lazio were clearly the better side on that day, as they put 7 shots on target compared to only 2 shots for Sassuolo.

They were rewarded for their effort with 3 points. Lazio have typically been much better at home than on the road. They’ve scored 1.73 goals per match on the road as opposed to 2.56 at home. Defensively it’s been the same, with 1.27 goals conceded on the road and just 0.88 goals conceded at home. Ciro Immobile and Felipe Caicedo both missed the match against AC Milan due to suspensions.

They combine for the most goals on the Lazio roster, so the lifeless effort offensively against Milan wasn’t overly surprising. Immobile leads Serie A in goals with 29, which is 3 better than Ronaldo whose second with 26 goals on the season. Caicedo found a way onto the stat sheet just 5 minutes into the match against Lecce, but Lazio just gave up and sat back after that. Conversely, Sassuolo have been playing with full effort for 90+ minutes.

Lazio have looked terribly out of shape on defence since coming back to complete the rest of the schedule following the lockdown. They have conceded 2 goals per match, with 5 allowed in their last two matches. Conversely, Sassuolo has been pressing really hard on offence. They have notched 3 goals per match in their last five. Though, Sassuolo has given up just over 2 goals per match defensively.

Sassuolo are not going to go away quietly in this match. Lazio should be able to get theirs with Caicedo and Immobile leading the way, though the Sassuolo offence has been clicking and likely give Lazio supporters a scare on Saturday. A 2-2 draw of 3-2 win for Lazio seems to be where this match is going.

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The Bet
OVER 3, 3.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.