Liverpool vs. Chelsea FA Cup Final Odds and Pick

All eyes will be on Wembley Stadium on Saturday when a pair of English rivals go toe-to-toe in the FA Cup final. Liverpool, who are still very much alive in their quest to complete the rare “quadruple” this season, will look to secure their second trophy in as many tries. Chelsea, meanwhile, will look to pull the upset and secure some silverware in what has otherwise been a rather disappointing campaign.

This isn’t the first cup final meeting between the sides this season, of course. Liverpool outlasted Chelsea in the EFL Cup final earlier this year. The two teams played to a scoreless draw through 120 minutes before the Reds won, 11-10, in a thrilling shootout.

Given the state of both teams right now, it’s not a huge surprise to see Liverpool favored by BetOnline’s oddsmakers once again on Saturday.

While Liverpool have found more success than Chelsea so far this season, the Blues have played the Reds tough to this point. The two teams drew both of their head-to-head meetings in Premier League play. Chelsea secured a 1-1 draw at Anfield last August, while Liverpool went into Stamford Bridge and came away with a 2-2 draw on the road on January 2nd. Their aforementioned meeting in the EFL Cup final was back on February 27th.

Soccer betting sites have this game as a pick’em. The Reds are slight +110 moneyline favorites, with the Blues coming in at +265. You can get +250 odds on the game finishing tied after 90 minutes, as well.


Just how much Liverpool have left in the tank remains to be seen. In addition to chasing this trophy, Liverpool are also still fighting to keep pace with Manchester City in the Premier League title race. Later this month, the Reds will head to Paris to take on mighty Real Madrid in the Champions League final, too.

With so many games on the schedule, Liverpool’s key cogs could be getting a bit fatigued. Jurgen Klopp’s side were held to a surprising 1-1 draw against Tottenham last weekend, which may have cleared the way for City to win yet another league title. During the week, Liverpool were able to outlast Steven Gerrard’s upstart Aston Villa side, 2-1, in league play.

This is an opportunity to win another trophy, though, so we should see Klopp field the strongest starting 11 he possibly can in this one. Andy Robertson, Mohamed Salah, and Thiago are likely to return to the starting group after starting the Villa match on the bench. The Reds will also have to make do without star defensive midfielder Fabinho, who left Tuesday’s game after suffering a knee injury. Fortunately, Klopp said the Brazilian will likely be healthy enough to return in time to face Real Madrid at the end of May.

Jordan Henderson is expected to replace Fabinho in midfield, and he’ll likely be flanked by Thiago and Naby Keita.

Sadio Mane will take center stage once again. The Senegal star has scored in each of his last two matches, and he picked up a brace in Liverpool’s trouncing of Man City in the FA Cup semis last month. It will also be interesting to see whether Luis Diaz, the January signing away from Porto, gets another start. The Colombian international has looked right at home since moving to Anfield, with two goals and an assist in his last three appearances in all competitions. Diaz is tipped to start next to Mane and Salah up front, as well.

Please Note:
Liverpool have won the FA Cup seven times in their history, though they are in the midst of a drought. The Reds’ last FA Cup triumph came back in 2006 when Rafa Benitez was still patrolling the touchline. Liverpool will also be making their first appearance in the final since losing to this very Chelsea side 10 years ago.


The FA Cup final is nothing new to Thomas Tuchel’s side, either. Chelsea have won this competition eight times in all, though their most recent triumph came back in 2018. This is their third straight appearance in the final after losing to Arsenal in 2020 and to Leicester City last term.

Chelsea started the season among the betting favorites to challenge Man City and Liverpool in the Premier League race. The Blues got off to a bright start before quickly falling by the wayside, however. The Blues are still good value to finish third behind the two frontrunners, though 16 points separate Chelsea from Liverpool in the table right now.

Tuchel’s side enters this game in questionable form, as well. The Blues have won just once in their last four Premier League matches, though it was a 3-0 trouncing of Leeds United earlier this week. That positive result came on the heels of draws against Manchester United and Wolverhampton in addition to a shocking upset loss to a relegation-caliber Everton side.

Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner are expected to start together up front, though they’ll have a very difficult time finding lanes against Virgil Van Dijk and company along the Liverpool back. The Reds do play a high line, however, so they have been prone to the occasional lapse. Edouard Mendy will start in goal.

Liverpool vs. Chelsea FA Cup Final Pick
Liverpool have done nothing but win so far this season, and it may be the best side we’ve seen in the history of this illustrious club. The absence of Fabinho does negatively impact the Reds defensively, though all three matches between the teams this season have been quite low-scoring. We’ve seen just six goals across three matchups to this point.

A low-scoring affair could be in the cards on Saturday, and one goal may really be enough to win it. Given the gulf in overall quality between the sides, however, I’m going to have a very hard time betting against Klopp to find a way to get the job done. Diaz could prove to be the X-factor, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him involved if Liverpool find a way to break Chelsea’s resolve.

Take Liverpool at +110 on the moneyline to beat Chelsea in another cup final.
The Bet
Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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