Pacos Ferreira vs. FC Porto Pick – Portuguese Primeira Liga June 29, 2020

It’s a big day in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Monday with two important matches taking place in Portugal. In the first of two matches, Maritimo and Benfica meet up with a desperate Benfica club looking to respond after a hard 4-3 loss against Santa Clara. It’s a loss that Benfica might regret for a long time.

They had 3 points within reach with less than 10 minutes left in regulation, but two late goals by Santa Clara shocked Benfica. That was much to the delight of Porto who have a 3-point lead at the top of the Primeira Liga table. Trading wins won’t do any good for Benfica at this stage in the schedule. Porto and Benfica both have six match days left, so there isn’t a whole lot of wiggle room for Benfica.

While Benfica struggled to put away Santa Clara in their most recent match, Porto stepped up and buried Boavista for a 4-0 win. Porto were the clear aggressors and deserved every point they registered on Tuesday. The win is the difference between Benfica and Porto at the moment.

Things can change fast, but if their recent matches are any indicator, then Porto won’t have any problems pulling away from Benfica for top honours in the Primeira Liga. It was the most complete effort that Porto put forth since the league went into lockdown mode. They had a poor result against Aves prior to that match.

Aves is the worst club in the Primeira Liga, so it was a surprising outcome. If Benfica storm back to win the league title, then that 0-0 draw will return to haunt Porto. In any event, Porto was clearly the better team, with 7 shots on targets as opposed to none for Aves. They dominated time of possession at 69%. Finishing at the net is part of the deal, though, and Porto came short in that regard.

That wasn’t the case for Porto in their next match. The mistakes that were made against Aves were rectified with Porto finding the back of the net on four occasions for a 4-0 win. With the win, Porto moved to 21-4-3 on the season. They hit the road for a meeting with 9-4-15 Pacos Ferreira on Monday. There are only 3 points separating Pacos Ferreira from four other clubs near the bottom of the table. Head below for our free Pacos Ferreira vs. Porto pick for June 29, 2020 in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on June 29, 2020.

Pacos Ferreira vs. FC Porto Portuguese Primeira Liga Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Pacos Ferreira +1, +1.5 (-125)
  • Porto -1, -1.5 (+105)
Moneyline:

  • Pacos Ferreira (+680)
  • Porto (-217)
  • Draw (+270)
Total Points:

  • Over 2.5 (+110)
  • Under 2.5 (-130)

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Pacos Ferreira vs. FC Porto Prediction:

Pacos Ferreira is coming off an impressive 3-1 win over Tondela on Wednesday. They also had a 2-1 win over Belenense prior to the win against Tondela. Belenense nor Tondela are quality clubs, though, so the real test is going to be on Monday against Porto. Porto are highly rated offensively and defensively. They can win in a lot of different ways, and that makes them especially dangerous, even on the road. Overall in the Primeira Liga this season, Porto has averaged 2 goals per match, while conceding just 0.64 per match on defence.

They didn’t start particularly hot out of the gate after the break, but broke through with a strong performance against Boavista in their most recent outing. With that game under their belt, expect to see Porto come up in great form on Monday. On the road they’ve been pretty strong as well, with 1.79 goals netted per game and 0.86 goals conceded.

The biggest struggle for Pacos Ferreira in this contest is going to be figuring out how to score goals. They have beaten up on a lot of bad defences, but when confronted with a useful defence, they don’t do too well. The best club they’ve played recently was Sporting on June 12 and that was a 1-0 loss. Overall on the season, Pacos Ferreira has scored just 0.93 goals per match and only 0.86 goals at home. After the performance Porto had in their latest fixture, I have confidence that they’re back in the swing of things following the layoff. This is likely a 1-0 or 2-0 win in favour of FC Porto on Monday.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.