Real Madrid vs. Valencia Pick – La Liga June 18, 2020

Valencia heads on the road to Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano for a meeting with Real Madrid on Thursday. It’s a tough matchup for Valencia, but this season is abnormal and they might be able to catch Real Madrid napping at home. That’s not something that Valencia will be able to depend on in this game, though.

It’s an important match for Madrid, as they do their best to keep pace with Barcelona. Barcelona currently has a record of 20-4-5 and 64 points, while Madrid trail with a record of 17-8-3 and 59 points. Madrid have had more ties than Barcelona, and that’s essentially been the difference. Football in Europe is off and running in multiple countries now.

We’ve gone from just football in Belarus, to the Premier League, La Liga, and Bundesliga all back in operation. Serie A in Italy is scheduled to begin on Saturday. They beat all of the sports in North America back to play, as baseball and the others continue to squabble over details. The NBA and NHL have agreed, but there’s still bickering behind the scenes. Meanwhile, MLB is getting closer to a deal, but nothing is official.

La Liga is using more of a World Cup type of format, with clubs playing every few days. It’s exciting if you’re a big football fan, and it is especially great for gambling. While sports bettors were left scrambling for action, we are slowly getting back to regularly scheduled programming. Real Madrid fans are hoping for a strong finish to the campaign with ten games left in the season.

Madrid don’t have to worry about Barcelona down the stretch, so every game is winnable for them. Before the shutdown, they were 2-0 winners over Barcelona on March 1. What a win it was, but Madrid have work to do in the next few weeks if they want to pass Barca. They returned to play with a simple 3-1 win over Eibar on Sunday. That was expected, and if Real Madrid bring their game on Thursday, a win will be in their sights.

Valencia are coming off a draw versus Levante on Friday. It could have been a better performance, but they’ll take the draw. They head to play Madrid with a record of 11-10-7 for 40 points and 8th in the La Liga. I think a draw is their best chance of having success on the road here. Head below for our free Real Madrid vs. Valencia pick for June 18, 2020 in the La Liga.

Real Madrid vs. Valencia La Liga Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Real Madrid -1.5 (+107)
  • Valencia +1.5 (-127)
Moneyline:

  • Real Madrid (-263)
  • Valencia (+680)
  • Draw (+370)
Total Points:

  • Over 3 (-119)
  • Under 3 (-101)

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Real Madrid vs. Valencia Prediction:

Valencia will be required to get their counterattack going on Thursday. That’s what they have been best at doing successfully this season, and is the key to upsetting Real Madrid here. When you’re facing a club as athletic as Real Madrid is, though, that’s clearly not going to work out as well. Real Madrid beat Valencia in the Super Cup in January, but they had a 1-1 draw in their last La Liga match in December. Karim Benzema scored a late goal for Madrid to tie things up or it would have been their second straight defeat against Valencia. On March 4, 2019, Valencia were 2-1 winners in an upset over Madrid over a year ago.

However, Real Madrid played their first game back like there wasn’t a layoff at all. They were on fire, and seemed to play like the same team that beat Barca before the break. Madrid are a juggernaut at home, with 2.14 goals scored per game and just 0.71 goals conceded. It’s a jump from 1.57 goals per match and 0.71 conceded on the road. Madrid has the talent to win anywhere in the world, but Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano has been a daunting task for their opponents. The most dangerous aspect of this match for Valencia is their defence, especially considering how poor it is on the road.

The Valencia defence has been getting killed on the road. They’ve conceded way too many goals, with 2.08 goals going to the opposition per match. Offensively, Valencia has been better than that, but not nearly enough to make up for the deficiencies on defence. Valencia is netting 1.15 goals per match on the road in the 2019-20 La Liga campaign.

Losing defender Ezequiel Garay before the shutdown was a killshot for their defensive core. He’s out with a torn ACL, while Gabriel Paulita is also dealing with a muscle train. Right back Cristiano Piccini is on the shelf as well. A healthy Valencia might be able to force a tie in this spot, but expect Zidane to have his guys ready to go. He certainly had them ready to go against Eibar in the first match back. If Real Madrid want to play today, a 2-1 or 3-1 win should be there for the taking.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.