Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Pick – ATP Hamburg European Open July 24, 2022

There are two final rounds on the ATP Tour this afternoon in Europe. They both have some quality players involved in Switzerland and Germany. The Swiss Open has a strong final, with Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini finishing off the action in Gstaad.

Ruud-Berrettini is an earlier match taking place in Switzerland before the ATP Hamburg European Open final match. The oddsmakers have that one as a 50-50 match in the final at the Swiss Open. It should be a good one, with Berrettini attempting to win three straight tournaments.

Berretini was forced to drop out of Wimbledon just as he was getting hot on the grass. He won the Stuttgart Open, Queen’s Club Championship, and then contracted Covid-19 before his opener at Wimbledon.

He’s quietly on fire, but Ruud is a small favorite on the Italian in Switzerland. Over in Germany, we have a guy often described as the next superstar in tennis.

Carlos Alcaraz has all of the skills to win multiple grand slams and carry the torch from Rafael Nadal. Will be put it all together? He’s shown at times the type of elite player he can be. Better consistency has to be his next step.

As a 19-year-old, inconsistent play has to be expected from Alcaraz.

He should be very good for a long time despite not looking the part at times. This tournament is the perfect example of how perfect he can be, but still can get himself into trouble.

Alcaraz can win his sixth overall and fifth career ATP title this year with a win on Sunday. There is a big mountain to climb in front of him if he’s going to come close to Rafa’s accomplishment, but it’s a good start.

Italian Lorenzo Musetti has work ahead of him to block Alcaraz’s plans in Germany. Musetti can do it, but it’s going to require a flawless performance. He’s in good shape following a win over Francisco Cerundolo, who was hot before that loss.

Head below for our best Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction at the Hamburg European Open final on July 24, 2022.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti ATP Hamburg European Open Live Betting Odds:

ATP Hamburg Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Players Spread Moneyline Total
Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 (-125) -575 Over 20.5 (-120)
Lorenzo Musetti +4.5 (-105) +420 Under 20.5 (-110)

Alcaraz vs. Musetti Prediction:

Lorenzo Musetti has better than a puncher’s chance of getting it done on Sunday. If his effort is similar to what he did against Francisco Cerundolo, Musetti should give this one a solid go. Cerundolo just looked like he was out of gas in that match, though.

Cerundolo went on a nice run, which included beating Ruud, Carreno-Busta, and Rublev.

He was coming off a win at the Swedish Open for his first career ATP title. Musetti put an end to the fun, with a 6-3, 7-6 win in the semifinal.

The Italian has won six straight sets, including over Davidovich Fokina, 6-4, 6-3, and Emil Ruusuvoui, 6-3, 7-6. Alcaraz is a sizable step up in class for Musetti, though.

Alcaraz has looked perfect on occasion in this tournament. He blasted past the No. 7 seed in the quarterfinal, Karen Khachanov, 6-0, 6-2. Khachanov isn’t a pushover opponent.

Has has been perfect for all four matches? No. Alcaraz needed three sets in the opener to beat Nicolas Kuhn, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6. That match showed just about everything. Domination, mistakes, and a clutch third set to win the tiebreaker, 7-3.

Alcaraz won in straight sets over Alex Molcan in the semifinal.

He wasn’t at his best in the first set, 7-6 (7-2), but then looked like a guy that could beat anyone in the next frame. Alcaraz chased Molcan off the court for a 6-1 win.

Is Musetti going to catch Alcaraz off in a set in the final round? If Alcaraz decides to take a set off, there’s the opening.

However, I believe that Alcaraz is hungry for a title and isn’t going to fall into any traps against Musetti. If he’s fully engaged in that match, and he likely is in the final round, Alcaraz should clear by at least five games.


Alcaraz vs. Musetti Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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