Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev Pick – ATP Finals November 19, 2020

The ATP Finals continue on Thursday following an upset yesterday. Novak Djokovic suffered his second upset in three matches, as he fell to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3. This wasn’t nearly as big of an upset as the Lorenzo Sonego match in the Vienna Open, but Djokovic’s demeanor and body language was just about the same. He didn’t look like he wanted to be playing Medvedev on Wednesday. His loss to Sonego is the biggest upset of his career.

Sonego is the No. 32 ranked player in the world, while Medvedev is No. 4 and playing in the ATP Finals. A little different, but if Djokovic had the same mindset as he did against Medvedev in a rematch versus Sonego, it would be another loss. That’s how uninterested Djokovic was in playing yesterday. This doesn’t take anything away from Medvedev who played a marvelous match. Let’s be honest, though, Medvedev isn’t winning if Djokovic cared to put some effort forward.

It’s a big win for Mevedev who might be able to sneak up and win this tournament. It will be interesting to see how Djokovic responds after the loss. Note that we’re still in the round robin stage, so Djokovic is far from done in the ATP Finals. Another performance like that for Djokovic and it could be a quick exit for him in London, though. Rafael Nadal also lost on Tuesday, so it was back-to-back days where we saw the No. 1 and No. 2 player in the world fall. Losing to Dominic Thiem and Medvedev are far from monster upsets, but an upset nonetheless.

Thiem is scheduled to take to the court on Thursday for his third ATP Finals match of this tournament. He remains undefeated after beating Rafa in impressive fashion on Tuesday. Thiem opened the ATP Finals with a 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 win over Stefan Tsitsipas. His biggest win came on Tuesday, as Thiem defeated Rafa in straight sets, 7-6, 7-6. It was close, but the edge went to Thiem in a close battle. Not a major upset and it wasn’t the first time Thiem beat Nadal in a big tournament. The key for Thiem is to stay grounded and focused against Andrey Rublev today. Head below for our free Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev pick for November 19, 2020.

Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev ATP Finals Betting Odds:


  • Thiem -2 (-112)
  • Rublev +2 (-108)

  • Thiem -159
  • Rublev +139

  • Over 23 (-111)
  • Under 23(-109)


Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev Prediction:

Andrey Rublev enters as the No. 8 ranked player in the world going into Thursday. He has his back up against the wall in his third round robin match. Already at 0-2 in the ATP Finals, Rublev needs a win desperately against Dominic Thiem on Thursday.

Rublev has been defeated by Nadal on Sunday, 6-3, 6-4 in straight sets, and then a 1-6, 6-4, 6-7 loss against Tsitsipas on Wednesday was really hard to accept. Win that match and Rublev would have been in a much better position right now.

Going back to Paris on November 5, Rublev is on a three-match losing streak, including a 2-1 loss against Stan Wawrinka to start this losing skid. Prior to that loss, Rublev was in good form with 11 straight singles wins. His last loss before the Wawrinka defeat was in July versus a player he recently lost to again, Tstisipas.

Rublev might have gone on a lengthy winning streak, but not against any opponents worth mentioning. He did beat Lorenzo Sonego, but I’m not sure how much stock we can put into that just because Djokovic decided to take the day off against him in Vienna.

Thiem is in great form at the moment with two wins in the ATP Finals, but suffered a recent loss against Rublev in Vienna. Rublev won in straight sets, 7-6, 6-2, on October 30. It’s the only loss for Thiem in his last four matches, including a recent win over the world No. 2, Rafa Nadal.

Thiem are an even 3-3 against each other dating back to 2017. I really like the way Thiem is playing right now. I expect that he learned something from his loss against Rublev last month as well. This should be a good match, but look for Thiem to prevail for his third straight win in the group stage of the ATP Finals.


The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.