Francisco Cerundolo vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta Pick – ATP Swedish Open July 16, 2022

There are two ATP Tour tournaments currently underway, three if you want to include a small tournament in Hamburg, with a group in Sweden for the Swedish Open at Bastad. There are more players on American soil in Rhode Island for the Hall of Fame Open at Newport.

We’ve already had a big shake-up in the Swedish Open, with the No. 1 seed losing in the Round of 16. Casper Ruud has been out of form since losing to Rafael Nadal in the final round of the French Open.

Ruud is gone from the Swedish Open, while the No. 2 seed Andrey Rublev advances following a 7-5, 6-4 win over Laso Dere in the quarterfinal.

There was an upset at Newport to the top seed as well. Felix Auger Aliassime had a short stay in Rhode Island after he was chased out of the Hall of Fame Open.

Francisco Cerundolo has the upset of the Swedish Open, as he was responsible for dispatching Ruud.

Cerundolo bypassed Ruud in three sets for one of the biggest wins of his career. Was it really that great, though? Ruud at his best, yes, but the Norwegian’s head has been elsewhere since losing to Nadal.

That said, it was a strong performance from Cerundolo and he carried it over into his next match. He will need all of that and more against Pabo Carreno-Busta.

The No. 5 seed, Carreno is coming off a perfect performance against No. 3 Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman can be tough a foe on the clay, but Carreno made it look easy in straight sets.

Head below for our free Cerundolo vs. Carreno prediction at the Swedish Open on July 16, 2022.

Francisco Cerundolo vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta ATP Swedish Open Live Betting Odds:

ATP Swedish Open Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Players Spread Moneyline Total
Francisco Cerundolo +3 (-110) +160 Over 22 (-105)
Pablo Carreno -3 (-120) -193 Under 22 (-115)

Cerundolo vs. Carreno Prediction:

Francisco Cerundolo made it work against Casper Ruud with a 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 win in the Round of 16. Cerundolo is unseeded in this tournament, but had it all working against the top seed of the tournament.

Ruud has lost three of four matches since losing to Rafa at Roland Garros.

He followed up with a loss to unseeded Ryan Peniston at the Queen’s Club after losing the final match at the French Open. Peniston won in straight sets, 7-6 (7-4), 7-6 (7-2) for an upset over Ruud.

The same happened for Bublik at Eastbourne before Wimbledon. He was in good shape with two wins, but couldn’t beat the higher-ranked Taylor Fritz, 3-6, 2-6.

Ruud opened Wimbledon with a strong straight-set victory over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, but dropped out of the tournament against unseeded Ugo Humbert, 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 4-6.

Point being I don’t know if the win is as munch of an upset as it appears on paper.

What Carreno did against Schwartzman on the clay was an impressive feat, though. Schwartzman is a clay specialist, but Carreno dominated in a 6-1, 6-0 win.

Note that this was after only two double faults for Schwartzman. It’s not like he was giving away free games in that one.

Carreno has been in good shape, with a record of 27-10 in his last 37 matches on the clay over the last two years. The Spaniard feels much more at home on the clay than on the grass, where he struggled over the last month.

Too much is being made about the win over Ruud for Cerundolo. Is he going to get blown away in this one? Unlikely, but I like Carreno to edge away for a five-game win in Sweden.


Cerundolo vs. Carreno Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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