Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev Pick – ATP Finals November 18, 2020

The ATP Finals provided some incredibly exciting action on Tuesday in London. In the early match, Dominic Thiem pulled off a mini upset over Rafael Nadal for a 7-6, 7-6 win in straight sets. It might have been a straight set win for Thiem, but that match could have easily gone in the other direction as well. I thought both players were in good form, and despite the loss for Nadal, he’s still alive in this tournament.

We’re still only in the round robin stage, so Nadal can still brush himself off and come back stronger. Nadal was the favourite in that match, but the upset was no shocker. Thiem is a terrific player and he’s beaten Nadal in big spots before. I was hoping to see that match go to a third set, and it likely would have been a 7-6 score as well. After erasing a 40-0 lead for Thiem when it was 5-4 in the second set, it certainly looked like the tide was changing in that match.

However, give credit to Thiem for coming back strong under some adversity against a world class player like Rafa. Thiem is a world class player, too, so there weren’t many surprises on Tuesday in that meeting. We were able to cash the OVER 23.5 in that match. It was expected to be a close call and it certainly was despite Thiem blocking the match going to a third set. In the other match, Stefan Tsitsipas closed out Andrey Rublev in the final set 6-1, 4-6, 7-6. That final set was a nail biter, with the Greek emerging with a 8-6 win to take the final set 7-6.

The ATP Finals action continues on Wednesday with two matches in the round robin stage. Alexander Zverev and Diego Schwartzman will square off in the early match, while Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev will close out the day later on. Djokovic played his first match since getting upset in the Vienna Open on Monday. It was easy work for Joker, as he bounced Schwartzman quickly. Conversely, Zverev is on the heels of an easy win over Zverev on Monday. Head below for our free Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev pick for November 18, 2020.

Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev ATP Finals Betting Odds:


  • Medvedev +3 (-109)
  • Djokovic -3 (-111)

  • Medvedev +200
  • Djokovic -230

  • Over 23 (-125)
  • Under 23 (+105)


Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction:

Daniil Medvedev is the No. 4 ranked player in the world for good reason. The Russian does not get nearly as much attention as the top-3, Djokovic, Nadal, and Thiem, but Medvedev employs a solid enough toolbox to pull off an upset. He is in tremendous form at the moment and is looking to make it seven straight wins on Wednesday against his biggest foe yet. During that stretch, the toughest opponents that Medvedev defeated had to be Milos Raonic and Zverev.

He beat Zverev twice in back-to-back matches, in Paris, 2-1, and then a win in straight sets most recently in London on Monday. You have to like what you saw from Medvedev against Zverev just a couple of days ago in his ATP Finals opener. He was able to take advantage of mistakes by Zverev, which included seven double faults, but Medvedev did notch four aces and went 3/9 on break points. By the end of the match, Medvedev had a 73:58 point advantage on Zverev.

Djokovic was in full control of his opponent on Monday as well. The loss against Lorenzo Sonego in the Vienna Open might have been a blessing in disguise for Djokovic. Get the loss out of the way right before the ATP Finals. Djokovic came back focused and determined versus a capable player in No. 8 ranked Diego Schwartzman. Djokovic won in straight sets 6-3, 6-2 for complete domination. That’s the Djokovic who we recognize as the No. 1 tennis player in the world.

Djokovic defeated Medvedev in the ATP Cup on January 10 by a score of 6-1, 5-7, 6-4. This will not be nearly as easy as the Schwartzman match, but Djokovic should emerge victorious. He was in perfect form in his opening match of this tournament, and when Djokovic is that focused and driven, he’s the most difficult player to beat in the world. The loss against Sonego might have been the worst thing that happened for his opponents in the ATP Finals. I’m not going overboard because of the big price, but I still feel confident in Joker delivering today.


The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.