Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexander Zverev Pick – ATP Monte-Carlo Masters April 14, 2022

The ATP Monte-Carlo Masters rolls on with the opening of the Round of 16 on Thursday. There have been some surprises in Monaco thus far.

Novak Djokovic was bounced out of the tournament after losing his opening match to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. It was his first time in a match since February, and Djokovic didn’t look fully interested.

The Monte Carlo Masters was an opportunity for Djokovic to get back into his work schedule and shake off the rust. If Djokovic was looking at this as a motivator for the French Open, then an ugly performance like that might give him a wake-up.

UPSETS IN MONTE CARLO
In a lesser surprise, but still an upset, No. 6 seed Felix Auger Aliassime looked well off the mark against Lorenzo Musetti. That’s the No. 83 ranked player in the world, knocking off a top-10 and surging 21-year-old.

Top players getting upset in these smaller tournaments is nothing new, though. If a player isn’t motivated, no matter their talent level, it will not work out. That’s probably the most difficult part of handicapping events that aren’t Grand Slams.

Hence, why I like to play lighter units compared to Grand Slam matches. In any case, German Alexander Zverev didn’t look unfocused in his Monte-Carlo Masters opener against Federico Delbonis.

That was too easy for the No. 3 player in the world against Delbonis, who is ranked No. 34 in the world. Delbonis is no slouch, though. That was just a clinic and determined effort from Zverev to show he’s here to play and win.

No. 13 seed Pablo Carreno-Busta was walked over to the Round of 16 after Alexander Bublik dropped out in the third set for no obvious reason.

Carreno Busta was up 4-6, 7-6, 4-3 when Bublik conceded the match. He was coming off a 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 win over Sebastian Baez in the Round of 64.

Carreno Busta and Zverev are coming off an epic match in the US Open in 2020. We can only hope for half as an entertaining contest in Monaco.

Head below for our free Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexander Zverev prediction on April 14, 2022.

Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexander Zverev ATP Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds and Player Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Players Spread Moneyline Total
Pablo Carreno-Busta +4 (-120) +270 Over 21.5 (-115)
Alexander Zverev -4 (-110) -335 Under 21.5 (-105)
Player Data Pablo Carreno-Busta Alexander Zverev
Overall Record (2022) 7-5 11-5
Overall Sets Record (2022) 20-16 27-11
Clay Court Record (2022) 2-1 1-0
Clay Court Sets Record (2022) 4-4 2-0
Career Titles 6 19
Career Record 241-190 325-145

Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction:

Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexander Zverev had a five-set thriller at the US Open in 2020. Carreno-Busta had Zverev on the ropes through the first two weeks.

He was cruising 6-3, 6-2, but then Zverev found some life and won the last three sets to win 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3. It’s best not to give a talent like Zverev any life, or he’s going to seize the opportunity.

Zverev hasn’t had a lot to celebrate this year, though. He has the ability to beat anyone on the ATP on a good day, but too often, the German comes up short when it matters the most.

OVERRATED IN THE TOP-3?
In the Australian Open, Zverev exited the first Grand Slam of the year with a three-set loss against Denis Shapovalov. What’s he really done since then?

Nothing really notable. The furthest he made it was to the final round of the Open Sud de France, where he was the No. 1 seed and lost to Bublik.

The Indian Open was a disappointment, with Zverev losing his opener against unseeded Tommy Paul in an upset 2-6, 6-4, 6-7. Following that poor showing, he went to Miami and lasted to the quarter-final against Casper Ruud as the No. 2 seed.

For his production and world ranking of No. 3, Zverev has been incredibly overrated and overpriced this year. He can beat Carreno-Busta, but no surprise if it’s competitive.

Carreno-Busta has an underrated resume in his career. The 30-year-old has two US Open semi-final appearances, is an Olympic medalist, a former top-10 player in the world, and is currently No. 19.

En route to his bronze medal, Carreno-Busta ousted Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. Which Carreno-Busta shows up today?

His big serve should force Zverev to work for a win in this one at least. Carreno-Busta handled the clay well last year, with a record of 17-4 and 38-12 in sets.

I’m leaning towards a long enough match for more than 21 games in Monte Carlo.

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Carreno-Busta vs. Zverev Pick
OVER 21.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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