NFL Fan Delusion Index 2026: Optimism and How Far Fans Go for a Super Bowl
Every NFL fan thinks this could be the year. But when does backing your team cross the line from loyalty into straight-up delusion? By our measure, nobody crossed it harder than Jets fans, who posted the league’s biggest gap between expectations and the betting market. Despite their reputation, Cowboys fans landed 27th.
We surveyed 1,063 NFL supporters across five categories, then ranked all 32 teams by how far their optimism stretched beyond the odds. And that was before we asked what they’d give up for a guaranteed ring.
The Most Delusional NFL Fanbases, Ranked (full 32-team table)
The table below ranks supporters of all 32 NFL teams on a 0–100 Fan Delusion scale, benchmarked against sportsbook odds available in late August 2026, ahead of Week 1. The higher the number, the more hometown expectations outran the betting market.
The full 32-team Fan Delusion Score
| Rank | Team | Score/100 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 85.1 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | 78.5 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 73.5 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars * | 71.8 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 71.1 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 70.4 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 67.2 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66.0 |
| 9 | Houston Texans | 64.2 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 64.1 |
| 11 | Washington Commanders * | 63.6 |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | 60.9 |
| 13 | New York Giants | 60.9 |
| 14 | Carolina Panthers | 58.8 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 58.5 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 58.3 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | 55.1 |
| 18 | Buffalo Bills | 51.1 |
| 19 | Indianapolis Colts * | 50.9 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 50.4 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | 48.7 |
| 22 | Cincinnati Bengals | 46.3 |
| 23 | New Orleans Saints | 46.2 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | 45.8 |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | 45.3 |
| 26 | Arizona Cardinals * | 43.6 |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | 43.4 |
| 28 | Baltimore Ravens | 42.2 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | 41.7 |
| 30 | Los Angeles Rams | 41.5 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans * | 38.5 |
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | 8.2 |
The Most Delusional Fanbase: New York Jets
The award for the most delusional NFL fans goes to New York Jets supporters. Their season optimism beat the betting market on all five questions where we could make a direct odds comparison. Gang Green expects 8.9 regular-season wins, while sportsbooks set the line at 5.5, the largest gap among teams with at least 20 responses. They gave New York a 60% shot at the playoffs, well above the market’s 12.5%. The Super Bowl call was bolder still, landing at 48% against a market figure of barely 0.4%.
Then there’s how far they would go to see that optimism pay off. And by far, the Jets faithful wanted it more than anyone. Their Super Bowl sacrifice rate hit 68%, tops in the league, based on taking a pay cut, giving up sex, getting tattooed, and wearing a rival jersey.
The Least Delusional Fanbase: Cleveland Browns
Cleveland supporters are the closest thing to realists in this ranking. Their Fan Delusion Score came in at 8.2 out of 100 — all the others landed between 38.5 and 85.1. Compared with sportsbook totals, Browns fans were one of only four groups to finish under the number, calling for 5.3 wins against a 6.5-win line. Just 5% of those who answered our questions put their starting quarterback in the NFL’s top five, and 4% see a championship coming within three seasons.
Being realistic doesn’t mean Browns backers have checked out. Cleveland also made our ranking of the NFL’s best fanbases.
Why the Jets Rank Above the Eagles
On paper, Philadelphia had more reason to dream big. The Eagles went 11-6 and won the NFC East last season, while New York stumbled to 3-14. Yet the Philly optimism was concentrated in one huge call — a 70% shot at the Super Bowl against 4.1% in the market. Their win forecast, on the other hand, resulted in a gap of just 0.3 wins above the sportsbook line. Jets supporters were far more bullish on both fronts, with that same optimism showing up elsewhere in the ranking and ultimately pushing New York to the top spot
How Far NFL Fans Would Go for a Super Bowl
To put some real stakes behind that hope, fans were offered a guaranteed championship in exchange for a sacrifice. Two-thirds said they would wear a rival’s jersey in public once a week for a year, and 44% were willing to make things permanent with a team tattoo. 9% even put their own face on the line for the ink. Sex, salary, even four figures in cash, all drew between 16% and 26% of respondents.
Note:All upcoming data is provided for context and do not factor into the Index Score, since no comparable market price exists.
Most Likely to Take a 10% Pay Cut
More than half a century after Joe Namath delivered the franchise’s lone Super Bowl, 62% of Jets supporters were willing to give up 10% of a year’s pay for another. Pittsburgh, with six Lombardis, came in last at 8%.
Top 10: Would take a 10% pay cut (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 62% |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 50% |
| 3 | Washington Commanders * | 47% |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 45% |
| 5 | New York Giants | 38% |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | 36% |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 35% |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 35% |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 33% |
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | 33% |
Most Likely to Give Up Sex for a Year
Putting money on the line was one thing, but Jets supporters drew little distinction when the sacrifice got more personal. Nearly half were willing to give up sex for a year, the highest share in the league.
Top 10: Would give up sex for one year (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 48% |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | 39% |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38% |
| 4 | Las Vegas Raiders | 38% |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | 36% |
| 6 | Washington Commanders * | 36% |
| 7 | New York Giants | 35% |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | 34% |
| 9 | Cleveland Browns | 29% |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 28% |
Most Likely to Get a Team Tattoo
The Jets also led on permanent ink, as 81% were willing to get a team tattoo. Atlanta reached 77% and Baltimore 65%, while San Francisco ranked last at 24%.
Top 10: Would get any permanent team tattoo (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 81% |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 77% |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 65% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 58% |
| 5 | Las Vegas Raiders | 58% |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 57% |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 53% |
| 8 | Washington Commanders * | 53% |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | 52% |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | 50% |
Most Likely to Get a Face Tattoo
As expected, a face tattoo was a much tougher sell. 30% of Jets fans still said yes, while Cincinnati, Washington, Carolina, and New Orleans dropped out of the top 10 altogether.
Top 10: Would get a face tattoo
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 30% |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | 21% |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 18% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17% |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 15% |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 14% |
| 7 | New York Giants | 14% |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 14% |
| 9 | Cleveland Browns | 14% |
| 10 | Las Vegas Raiders | 12% |
Most Likely to Wear a Rival Jersey
The least painful league-wide sacrifice produced a different winner. Carolina led at 83%. Atlanta and the Jets followed close behind. Pittsburgh held the line hardest; fewer than half of its supporters were willing to spend a year in a rival jersey.
Top 10: Would wear a rival jersey weekly for one year (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | 83% |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 82% |
| 3 | New York Jets | 81% |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans * | 80% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 79% |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals * | 75% |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | 74% |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | 73% |
| 9 | New York Giants | 72% |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 71% |
Most Willing to Pay $1,001 or More
In NFL money, $1,001 does not go especially far. Even the cheapest Super Bowl LX ticket topped $3,000 near kickoff. Nearly half of Jets supporters would spend at least $1,001 not for a seat, but for a guaranteed championship.
Top 10: Would pay $1,001 or more (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 46% |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans * | 38% |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 30% |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 27% |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 26% |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 25% |
| 7 | Washington Commanders * | 24% |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | 23% |
| 9 | Las Vegas Raiders | 21% |
| 10 | Chicago Bears | 20% |
Who Would Go Furthest Overall
Add it all up, and nobody was more willing to pay the price than Jets supporters. Their 68% overall rate, averaging pay cut, sex, tattoo, and rival-jersey answers, leaves Atlanta eight percentage points back and Cincinnati another six behind.
Top 10: Overall sacrifice rate (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 68% |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 60% |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 54% |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 50% |
| 5 | Washington Commanders * | 50% |
| 6 | Las Vegas Raiders | 49% |
| 7 | New York Giants | 48% |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 47% |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 47% |
| 10 | Cleveland Browns | 46% |
Which Fanbases Overshot the Betting Odds the Most
The sections below show how NFL fans stacked up vs. betting odds and prediction-market pricing in late August, whether on wins or the postseason.
Biggest Super Bowl Gap
Eagles fans put their Super Bowl chances at 70%, against just 4.1% in the sportsbook market. Confident is one word for it, though you can understand some of the swagger. Philadelphia was just one season removed from hammering Kansas City 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX. Cleveland’s 15-point gap was the league’s smallest.
Top 10: Fan-minus-market Super Bowl gap
| Rank | Team | Fans | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 70% | 4.1% | +66 pp |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 71% | 6.3% | +64 pp |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 64% | 4.6% | +59 pp |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 61% | 4.3% | +57 pp |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 63% | 7.5% | +56 pp |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 68% | 13.7% | +54 pp |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 58% | 3.9% | +54 pp |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 60% | 6.8% | +53 pp |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 55% | 2.6% | +53 pp |
| 10 | New England Patriots | 57% | 4.6% | +52 pp |
Biggest Win-Total Gap
Some of the NFL’s most overconfident fans backed teams the sportsbooks were relatively cool on. The Jets led that group, projecting 8.9 wins against a 5.5 line.
Top 10: Fan-minus-market win-total gap (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Fans | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets | 8.9 | 5.5 | +3.4 wins |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars * | 11.5 | 8.5 | +3.0 wins |
| 3 | Miami Dolphins | 7.5 | 4.5 | +3.0 wins |
| 4 | Las Vegas Raiders | 7.8 | 5.5 | +2.2 wins |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals * | 6.8 | 4.5 | +2.2 wins |
| 6 | Indianapolis Colts * | 9.4 | 7.5 | +1.9 wins |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 11.4 | 9.5 | +1.9 wins |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.2 | 8.5 | +1.7 wins |
| 9 | Atlanta Falcons | 8.0 | 6.5 | +1.5 wins |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | 8.9 | 7.5 | +1.4 wins |
Biggest Playoff Gap
Miami supporters were in another playoff universe. They gave the Dolphins a 56% shot, nearly nine times the market’s 6.3% estimate.
Top 10: Fan-minus-market playoff gap (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Fans | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | 56% | 6.3% | +50 pp |
| 2 | New York Jets | 60% | 12.5% | +47 pp |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 67% | 29.0% | +38 pp |
| 4 | Washington Commanders * | 64% | 26.3% | +38 pp |
| 5 | New York Giants | 61% | 27.4% | +33 pp |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 74% | 41.7% | +33 pp |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans * | 47% | 17.2% | +30 pp |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 75% | 46.3% | +29 pp |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts * | 68% | 40.0% | +28 pp |
| 10 | Las Vegas Raiders | 43% | 16.1% | +27 pp |
Biggest Division Gap
Six months after winning Super Bowl LX, Seahawks supporters put their NFC West chances at 81%, compared with 30.2% in the market. Not far behind were Miami and New York, whose division calls cleared the odds by roughly 50 percentage points apiece.
Top 10: Fan-minus-market division gap (* n < 20)
| Rank | Team | Fans | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 81% | 30.2% | +51 pp |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | 52% | 2.2% | +50 pp |
| 3 | New York Jets | 54% | 4.6% | +49 pp |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 76% | 28.4% | +48 pp |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 70% | 22.8% | +48 pp |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars * | 74% | 26.7% | +47 pp |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 70% | 22.7% | +47 pp |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | 66% | 22.4% | +43 pp |
| 9 | New York Giants | 56% | 13.2% | +43 pp |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | 60% | 17.5% | +42 pp |
Biggest Reach-the-Super-Bowl Gap
Nobody has made more Super Bowls than New England (11), while Buffalo owns the record for four straight appearances. Both cracked the top 10 for optimism over the market, though Philadelphia and Seattle were in another league, posting the two biggest differences.
Top 10: Fan-minus-market reach-the-Super-Bowl gap
| Rank | Team | Fans | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 74% | 9.4% | +65 pp |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 75% | 12.3% | +63 pp |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 70% | 9.9% | +60 pp |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 66% | 7.7% | +58 pp |
| 5 | Houston Texans | 66% | 9.1% | +57 pp |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | 70% | 14.1% | +56 pp |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 66% | 10.0% | +56 pp |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 61% | 6.4% | +55 pp |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | 61% | 8.1% | +52 pp |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 56% | 3.7% | +52 pp |
Faith in the Franchise: Title Hopes and QB Belief
We asked fans to look beyond the next season and judge where their franchise is headed. One of the wildest calls came from Jets supporters, who are banking on 1.7 Super Bowl wins over the next decade after a 3-14 season and one title in franchise history, back in 1968.
Most Sure of a Title Within Three Years
Kansas City’s faith survived a rare down year. The Chiefs stumbled to 6-11 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2014, yet 86% of their supporters still believe another ring is coming within the next three seasons.
Top 10: Expect a title within three seasons
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 86% |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 84% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 82% |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 80% |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 71% |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 70% |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 70% |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 70% |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 69% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 62% |
Expect the Most Super Bowls Over 10 Years
Again, Chiefs fans are talking dynasty, and they know what that looks like. Kansas City already won three Super Bowls in five seasons from 2019 through 2023. Among the rest of this top 10, only New England, San Francisco, and Washington have ever matched that kind of championship run.
Top 10: Mean Super Bowls expected over 10 seasons
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2.4 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.2 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.1 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 1.9 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 1.9 |
| 6 | New York Giants | 1.8 |
| 7 | New York Jets | 1.7 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 1.5 |
| 9 | Washington Commanders * | 1.5 |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 1.5 |
Most Likely to Pick Themselves in 2027
Across all 1,063 respondents, the Rams were the team everyone had circled for 2027. Their own crowd was just as sold. No fanbase backed themselves more.
Top 10: Picked their own team to win in 2027
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 67% |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 60% |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 58% |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 55% |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 51% |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 46% |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 43% |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 36% |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | 35% |
| 10 | Houston Texans | 35% |
Most Bullish on Their Quarterback
Quarterback faith followed the league’s biggest names. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson all drew heavy backing from their fanbases, though Buffalo stood apart for sheer conviction. Bills supporters were nearly unanimous on Allen’s elite status and likewise certain he should remain under center for years.
Top 10: Ranked their starting QB in the NFL’s top five
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 96% |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 89% |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 86% |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens | 80% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 76% |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 68% |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 67% |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 65% |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 55% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 54% |
Top 10: Would keep their starting QB for three seasons
| Rank | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 98% |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 95% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 93% |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 93% |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 92% |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 89% |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 89% |
| 8 | Washington Commanders * | 88% |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | 88% |
| 10 | Chicago Bears | 83% |
The NFL’s Most Loyal Fanbases
Almost half of the 1,063 fans in this survey have followed their team for 20 years or their whole lives. About one in four call themselves die-hard; only 12% say they are casual. The fanbases that have been here the longest are also not the ones lining up for a pay cut or a tattoo. Houston sits last on both measures, 20% lifelong, 5% die-hard. Pittsburgh is the other end of that list.
The Most Loyal Fanbase: Pittsburgh Steelers
Out of all fans surveyed, Steelers fans have been here the longest. 74% have followed the team for 20 years or their whole lives, well above the 48% survey average. Cleveland is next at 68%, which fits a fanbase that also posted the lowest Delusion Score. The Jets, first in delusion, rank 27th on tenure at 37%. Steelers fans will not take the pay cut: only 8% said yes, last among teams with a usable sample.
| Rank | Team | Fans 20+ years / lifelong | Call themselves die-hard |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steelers | 74% | 31% |
| 2 | Browns | 68% | 27% |
| 3 | Broncos | 67% | 11% |
| 4 | Packers | 64% | 29% |
| 5 | Bengals | 64% | 21% |
| 6 | Raiders | 62% | 29% |
| 7 | Patriots | 61% | 23% |
| 8 | Commanders | 59% | 35% |
| 9 | Bears | 56% | 24% |
| 10 | 49ers | 56% |
Methodology: How We Built the Fan Delusion Index
To measure which NFL fanbases were most optimistic relative to the betting market, we compared survey expectations with the sportsbook and prediction-market board as it stood in late August 2026. Our analysis drew on 1,063 unique responses across all 32 NFL franchises, with only samples of at least 20 eligible to lead team-level findings.
We built the index around five equally weighted inputs:
- Regular-season wins compared with the posted win total
- Chance of making the playoffs
- Chance of winning the division
- Chance of reaching the Super Bowl
- Chance of winning the Super Bowl
For the playoff, division, and Super Bowl questions, fans answered on a 1–10 scale. We turned the team average into a percentage, meaning 7.0 became 70%. Sportsbook odds were converted to implied probability, putting both sides on the same footing for a direct comparison.
Next, we measured how far fan expectations sat above or below the betting market across all five categories. Because those gaps came in different units, we put them on a common statistical scale using z-scores, where:
z = (team gap − league-average gap) ÷ league standard deviation
That left us with five comparable gaps. We then put them on a 0–100 scale and averaged the results evenly to create the Fan Delusion Score. Higher numbers reflect a bigger gap between fan expectations and the betting market compared with the rest of the league. The score is a ranking measure, not a percentage or a prediction.
Some survey questions had no matching sportsbook or prediction-market number, so we left them out of the index. These covered sacrifices, fan tenure, quarterback confidence, and long-term title expectations. The 2027 Super Bowl pick was also excluded because respondents chose one team rather than assigning a probability.
NFL Fan Expectations Study FAQs
The most delusional NFL fans in 2026 are New York Jets supporters, who ranked No. 1 on our Fan Delusion Index with a score of 85.1 out of 100. Their expectations topped the betting market across all five categories, including 8.9 projected wins compared with a sportsbook line of just 5.5.
Not even close. Dallas ranked 27th out of 32 teams on our Fan Delusion Index, scoring 43.4. The Cowboys may have the reputation, but Jets, Dolphins, and Broncos supporters all showed much bigger gaps between what they expected and what the market priced in.
Cleveland Browns supporters were easily the most realistic group in our study. Their Fan Delusion Score was just 8.2, far below every other team. They even predicted 5.3 wins when the sportsbook line sat higher at 6.5.
We calculated the Fan Delusion Index by comparing supporter expectations with the betting market across five equally weighted categories: wins, playoffs, division title, reaching the Super Bowl and winning it. The wider the gap between belief and the market, the higher a team scored, with all five results feeding into a final 0–100 rating.
NFL supporters were willing to go surprisingly far for a guaranteed Super Bowl. Two-thirds said yes to wearing a rival’s jersey every week for a year, while 44% agreed getting a permanent team tattoo. Others put sex, a 10% pay cut, or more than $1,000 on the table.
