AI March Madness Bracket Comparison and Analysis
March Madness is about to tip off, and to help you narrow down your picks for who will cut down the nets in a few weeks’ time, we’ve prepared an AI March Madness bracket comparison between the top LLM models. We’ve also compared them to our own sports betting AI, “The Geek.”
Read on to see bracket comparisons between The Geek, ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Claude, and Grok. We explore how each model predicts first-round upsets, regional winners, and championship picks, and the ways you can learn from their selections.
Key Takeaways from AI March Madness Brackets vs. The Geek
We’ll dive deeper into each model’s path to the final below, but first, here are some key takeaways from our AI March Madness bracket analysis.
- Duke is heavily favored by AI: Every single model picked Duke to reach the Final Four and championship game, with four out of six models selecting the Blue Devils as the eventual champs.
- Most models lean toward safety: First-round upsets were not popular across the six models, with an average of 4.16 for the Round of 64. Perplexity chose zero upsets, while The Geek and ChatGPT chose seven, highlighting varying appetites for risk.
- The Midwest is no-mans-land: No other region shows as much disagreement between AI models, signaling an opportunity for risky bracket picks and upsets in your own brackets.
While last year’s tournament saw some of the fewest first round upsets in tournament history, there were still five. In 2024 there were seven, and in 2023 there were also seven. So while selectivity is key, it may be wise to follow the thinking of The Geek and ChatGPT, who have chosen seven first-round upsets when making March Madness predictions.
How We Compared AI March Madness Brackets
When comparing AI March Madness brackets, we looked for key areas like how many upsets each model chose and at what point in the tournament. The most common first round upsets typically come from 11th seeds historically, which have a 62–98 record against 6-seeds.
We also looked at which teams the models chose to pull off upsets, plus factored in how successful they expected top seeds to be. Comparing the five models to the 10,000 simulations run by The Geek is also covered further in each bracket below.
Here’s what our own model produced:
The Geek’s March Madness Bracket
ChatGPT’s AI March Madness Bracket:
ChatGPT’s March Madness Picks
Starting with ChatGPT, this LLM chose a variety of top seeds ranging from 1–3 to make deep runs. It chose all four #1 seeds (Duke, Florida, Arizona, Michigan) to reach the Elite Eight, but only Duke to reach the semifinals and eventually win the tournament.
Notable Upsets
ChatGPT’s March Madness predictions included some of the most first-round upset picks, with seven. Notably, the biggest upsets it chose were UCF (10), South Florida (11), and Northern Iowa (12) in the East Region. In the West, there was only one double-digit seed advancing: 12-seed High Point. The South had McNeese (12) and VCU (11), and in the Midwest, Hofstra (13).
ChatGPT’s furthest-progressing underdogs were High Point and VCU, which it predicted would both be eliminated in the Round of 16.
The Geek vs. ChatGPT
When it comes to upsets chosen, The Geek and ChatGPT have a comparable number, with seven each. However, Northern Iowa and South Florida are the only overlapping underdogs chosen. While both models had a similar number of underdogs in the first round, none of The Geek’s were predicted to make it past the Round of 32.
The final four differs quite a bit, with only Duke being the same for both models. The Geek predicted three 1-seeds making the Final Four and Michigan emerging victorious, while ChatGPT chose Duke.
Gemini’s AI March Madness Bracket:
Gemini’s March Madness Picks
Gemini has chosen nearly every top seed going deep, with Duke, Arizona, and Michigan all reaching the Final Four. Florida, the last remaining one-seed, was predicted to get knocked out in the Elite Eight. The Arizona Wildcats were chosen to win in what would be their first national championship since 1997.
Notable Upsets
Gemini’s March Madness picks included six first round upsets, all of which happen to be double-digit seeds. The biggest underdogs chosen was the twelfth-seed High Point in the West and McNeese in the South. However, the longest seed to make the Sweet 16 was 5-seed St. John’s, showcasing a lower risk tolerance.
The Geek vs. Gemini
The Geek and Gemini are nearly identical in their final four selections, with both choosing Duke, Arizona, and Michigan to be still standing. Similar to The Geek, who went against the grain by choosing Michigan instead of Duke, Gemini chose Arizona.
Both models have chosen South Florida and Santa Clara to pull off first round upsets. The Geek’s lowest-ranked team to make the Sweet 16 is 6-seed BYU.
Grok’s AI March Madness Bracket:
Grok’s March Madness Picks
Grok’s March Madness AI predictions feature a Final Four matchup between two top seeds, with a #1 facing a #2 on both sides. Predicting the one-seeds will win their matchups, Grok believes Duke and Arizona will meet in the final, with Duke emerging victorious. Grok heavily favors top seeds, with the Elite Eight being composed of seven teams ranked 1st or 2nd.
Notable Upsets
Grok chose the fewest upsets of all the models tested, selecting just one first-round upset: 11-seed play-in winner Texas over BYU. And that’s about the biggest talking point we have. According to Grok, the Longhorns don’t get past Gonzaga in the Round of 32, and no team ranked below a 4-seed is seen in the Sweet 16.
The Geek vs. Gemini
The Geek has chosen a more realistic first-round upset total in seven. It’s unlikely that only one upset takes place as chosen with Grok, therefore there are few points to compare there.
Both models have a 1 vs 1 in the final, but The Geek has chosen Michigan and Grok has Duke.
Perplexity’s AI March Madness Bracket:
Perplexity’s March Madness Picks
Perplexity chose all four 1-seeds to reach the Final Four, with the nation’s top-ranked team Duke, winning it all. For all of the favorites chosen, notably, the model’s Elite Eight featured four 1 vs 3 matchups. This model also took some urging to make predictions, as it was hesitant to provide “guesswork” for each game without live stats.
Notable Upsets
Perplexity’s LLM March Madness bracket predictions were some of the safest picks among the six models. Perplexity chose zero upsets prevailing in the first round. The furthest prevailing mid-ranked team comes in the South, with 6-seed Illinois making it to the Sweet 16.
The Geek vs. Perplexity
You’re probably safer choosing a March Madness betting strategy that mirrors something closer to The Geek’s predictions with seven underdogs. Since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, there has never been zero upsets.
Still, both brackets have confidence in the 1-seeds, with three (The Geek) and four (Perplexity) making the Final Four. Perplexity has chosen Duke, and The Geek, Michigan.
Claude’s AI March Madness Bracket:
Claude’s March Madness Picks
The Claude March Madness AI bracket is among the four models who chose Duke to win the title. It’s also one of several to take three 1-seeds reaching the Final Four. The only 2-seed in that group is Houston, whom it has taking out Florida in the Elite Eight.
Notable Upsets
With four first round upsets, Claude’s AI bracket represents a very balanced portfolio — not too aggressive, but not conservative either. The model hasn’t taken anything too outrageous, with three 9-seeds prevailing. Its riskiest pick is #11 VCU upsetting #6 North Carolina in the South Region, which was also chosen by 50% of the models tested.
Among all of the models, Claude did have one of the more interesting Elite Eight picks, with a 6-seed, BYU, going deep and eventually falling to Arizona.
The Geek vs. Claude
Claude and The Geek have one comparable upset pick with 9-seed Utah St. upsetting 8-seed Villanova in the first round in the West Region.
The models have both taken Duke, Arizona, and Michigan for the Final Four and both have a Duke-Michigan final, however, they’ve taken opposite sides.
Comparing AI March Madness Brackets
After comparing five LLM brackets alongside The Geek’s AI picks, it’s clear that most models lean heavily toward favorites in the 2026 NCAA tournament.
Four of the six models selected either three or four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. Considering a 1-seed has won the title 26 times, this approach isn’t unreasonable.
However, we recommend following a more balanced strategy similar to The Geek, ChatGPT, or Gemini, which include six to seven first-round upsets.
Biggest Similarities Across LLMs
Leaning on top seeds to go far, especially with the Duke Blue Devils, was a prevailing theme when comparing LLM March Madness brackets. Here are some more:
Biggest Differences Across LLMs
Meanwhile, a varying number of upset picks, and how far the models chose longshots to progress, highlight a few differences among the brackets.
STATS:
- Number of 1st round upsets vary from: 0, 1, 4, 6, 7, ,7
- Kennesaw St is the biggest dog #14 chosen (Geek)
- ChatGPT was the most liberal with longshot progression with an 11 and 12 reaching the Sweet 16. Nobody else had anyone lower than a 6-seed making it that far
- Most popular first round dogs: South Florida (3), Northern Iowa (2), , Utah State (2), Santa Clara (2), High Point (2), McNeese (2)
- All 6 have Duke in the final
- 4/6 picked Duke to win
- Most popular final 2 is Duke vs Arizona (3) and then Duke vs Michigan (2)
- 4/6 models have 3 or 4 one seeds in the final four
- The furthest progressing mid-ranked team of any model is Claude’s pick of 6-seed BYU reaching the Elite Eight
Geek’s First Round upsets:
- 12- Northern Iowa (East)
- 11 – South Florida (East)
- 9 – Utah State (West)
- 14 – Kennessaw St. (West)
- 9 – Iowa (South)
- 13 – Troy (South)
- 10 – Santa Clara (Midwest)
Top Seeds: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida
First round upsets:
- Geek: 7 (Northern Iowa, South Florida, Utah State, Kennessaw St., Iowa, Troy, Santa Clara)
- ChatGPT: 7 (Northern Iowa, South Florida, UCF, High Point, McNeese, VCU, Hofstra)
- Gemini: 6 (South Florida, High Point, McNeese, VCU, Miami OH, Santa Clara)
- Perplexity: 0
- Claude: 4 (Utah St., Iowa, VCU, Saint Louis)
- Grok: 1 (Texas)
Region Winners:
- Geek: Duke, Illinois, Michigan, Arizona
- ChatGPT: Duke, Houston, Gonzaga, Iowa St
- Gemini: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Houston
- Perplexity: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida
- Claude: Duke, Houston, Michigan, Arizona
- Grok: Duke, Houston, Arizona, Iowa State
Final 2 Winners:
- Geek: Duke, Michigan
- ChatGPT: Duke, Iowa St.
- Gemini: Duke, Arizona
- Perplexity: Duke, Arizona
- Claude: Duke, Michigan
- Grok: Duke, Arizona
Champion Winners:
- Geek: Michigan
- ChatGPT: Duke
- Gemini: Arizona
- Perplexity: Duke
- Claude: Duke
- Grok: Duke
